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Super Bowl Handicapping: Expert Tips for Betting Success

by Joey House - 2/7/2025

Super Bowl handicapping Andy Reid Kansas City Chiefs

The Kentucky Derby, the World Series, the NBA Finals, and the NCAA college basketball tournament, "March Madness," are all jewels among their respective sports in both popularity and betting action. Yet, towering above them all is the Super Bowl, which stands as the undisputed champion of sports betting days in the United States. Last year's edition of this American classic saw nearly 68% of adults place some kind of wager. As the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is expected to generate $1.39 billion in legal handle, Super Bowl 59 will become the most heavily wagered football game in history... for a season.

The Super Bowl 59 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. EST in New Orleans, with the Chiefs as a slight 1.5-point favorite and the game's total set at 48.5. Let Doc's Sports' 53 years of success guide you to a winning strategy with our Super Bowl 59 Handicapping Expert Tips.

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Crafting Your Super Bowl 59 Betting Strategy

Effective bankroll management is the cornerstone of any successful sports betting strategy, which can significantly impact your overall success. While scoring big on a single day may feel exhilarating, it's important to remember that it won't define your entire betting season. In contrast, betting beyond your usual limits and facing losses can spell disaster for your football wagering campaign. Before the excitement of the game unfolds, carefully determine your bankroll for the event and commit to it, regardless of the unpredictable nature of the game.

The adage "Those who fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has never been so true as selecting your wagers for high-profile sporting events. The Super Bowl transcends being just a single game; it is a cultural phenomenon that captivates millions and attracts a diverse range of enthusiasts. In response, sportsbooks offer an array of innovative wagers that cater to various types of gamblers, from casual fans to seasoned bettors. If you wander into this electrifying atmosphere without a well-thought-out plan, you may find yourself making impulsive bets that you lack confidence in or don't fully understand. So take the time to strategize and prepare, ensuring your Super Bowl experience is thrilling and rewarding.

Laddering your Super Bowl 59 Same-Game Parlays (SGPs)

Laddering is an advanced betting strategy where you develop a base Same-Game Parlay (SGP) and add additional legs, each of which significantly increases the payout odds. This strategy spreads your risk across various outcomes, enabling you to be profitable when, at other times, your SGP would be a loser. Laddering is also an effective way to keep you engaged in the game as each leg of your SGP comes into play.

For example, if you think Philadelphia will stop Kansas City's bid for the "3-peat" and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts scores a touchdown (he has scored 17 rushing touchdowns in 14 games this season), that would be your base SGP, which currently has odds of +218 at DraftKings. Next, you could add a leg of Saquon Barkley any time TD, increasing the odds to +370. Future Hall of Famer quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for less than 100 yards just once in his NFL career, and that was a game in which he didn't finish the game because of an injury. So, even though we are creating a script that favors Philadelphia, we can safely add a leg or two of Kansas City's success. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy has emerged as the clear second option after the venerable tight end Travis Kelce. Adding Worthy to have 50+ receiving yards, a feat he has accomplished six times, including the AFC Championship Game, is a sound wager that brings the odds to a healthy +650. We are working with the concept that Philly jumps out to an early lead, so we add Philadelphia to score first, bringing the odds to +1000.

By scripting plausible scenarios of how the game could unfold, we created four different wagers correlated with the premise that Philadelphia wins the game. Assigning the proper amounts to each leg of the wager gives us an excellent chance of making a small profit, provided we win the base leg.

Trends Can Be Your Friends if Used Correctly

As you research significant events like the Super Bowl, immersing yourself in relevant statistical and situational trends can provide invaluable insights. These trends should act as guiding lights, highlighting patterns and tendencies that may influence the game's outcome. While having this knowledge at your disposal can be advantageous, it is crucial to avoid becoming overly attached to these trends. Relying too heavily on them may cloud your judgment and prevent you from considering other key factors that could impact the event.

General Super Bowl Trends

  1. Underdog ATS Success: The dogs are 13-7 ATS in the last 20 Super Bowls, including a current run of 4-0 ATS.
  2. First Scores Matter: Teams that score first are 32-21 SU in Super Bowl history. First scorers are 4-1 SU in the last five games.
  3. Running in the Air Age: In a nod to old-school fans, the teams that win the ground game are 43-15 SU/ 41-14-3 ATS. That's a winning percentage of 74.1% and a cover rate of 74.5%. Philadephia had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the NFL with 179 ypg, and Kansas City was 22nd at 105 ypg.
  4. Defense DOES Win Championships: It's no surprise that teams with the stingiest regular-season scoring defenses have a strong record, covering the spread at an impressive 7-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The Eagles were second in the NFL (17.8 ppg), and the Chiefs were fourth (19.2 ppg).
  5. Post Josh Allen Letdown?: This was the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes' career he knocked out his AFC rival. So far, Kansas City is 1-2 SU after sending Buffalo home for the season.
  6. Mahomes is Home Anywhere: Patrick Mahomes has played five games at neutral sites in his NFL career and is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in those contests, including three Super Bowl victories. His lone Super Bowl loss to the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers was played at Raymond James Stadium because of Covid 19 protocols.
  7. Squares Rule...Kind of: Teams backed by the public are 11-10 SU/ATS in the last 21 Super Bowls. Philadelphia has received 66% of the bets and 75% of the money.

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