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Super Bowl Handicapping: Expert Tips for Betting Success

by Robert Ferringo - 2/8/2024

Super Bowl handicapping Clyde Edwards-Helaire Kansas City Chiefs

The Super Bowl is not just the biggest sporting event of the year; it's also one of the most heavily bet-upon events in the world.

With billions of dollars on the table, handicapping the Super Bowl requires a blend of strategy, analysis, and, frankly, a bit of luck.

This year Kansas City will take on San Francisco at 6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 11 at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. The 49ers are currently a -2.0 favorite and the total in this game is set at 47.5.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a newcomer looking to dip your toes into the world of sports betting, here are some expert tips to help you maximize your chances of success when handicapping this year’s Super Bowl:

  1. Study the Matchup: How does Kansas City’s offense matchup against the San Francisco defense? What are both units’ tendencies? Will the 49ers offense lean on the pass or the run against the Chiefs defense? Any bet on the Super Bowl has to begin with thoroughly researching the teams competing in the Super Bowl. Look at their regular-season performance, playoff results, key player statistics, injuries, and any relevant trends. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each team will provide valuable insights into how the game might unfold.
  2. Evaluate Momentum: Momentum can be a significant factor in determining the outcome of the Super Bowl. Consider which team has been performing well in the weeks leading up to the big game. Pay attention to their recent form, and wager on the teams as they have been playing over the last month rather than what the teams were earlier in the season.
  3. Assess Coaching: Coaching can play a crucial role in the outcome of the Super Bowl. So you have to ask yourself: who do you trust? Evaluate the coaching staff of each team, including their game-planning abilities, in-game decision-making, and experience in championship games.
  4. Consider, But Don’t Be Swayed By, The Spread: The point spread is a bit of an overrated part of Super Bowl betting. The last time the Super Bowl spread was greater than 4.5 was back in 2016 and the last time it was at least a touchdown was 2009. Over the past 14 years only one time (Rams-Bengals in 2022) did the team that won the Super Bowl fail to cover the spread. Pick the team you think will win the game and don’t worry as much about the number.
  5. Manage Your Bankroll: As with any form of gambling, it's essential to manage your bankroll responsibly when betting on the Super Bowl. Set a budget for your betting activities and stick to it, regardless of whether you're winning or losing. Avoid chasing losses or betting more than you can afford to lose. And consider using strategies such as Doc’s Unit System to help manage your risk.
  6. Shop for the Best Prop Odds: Finally, the Super Bowl spread will be pretty standard across most sportsbooks. However, there is still plenty of wiggle room in regards to props. Don't settle for the first betting line you come across. Shop around at different sportsbooks to find the best odds and maximize your potential profits. Even small differences in the odds can have a significant impact on your overall returns, so take the time to compare options before placing your bets.

By following these expert tips for handicapping the Super Bowl, you can improve your chances of success and make the most of this exciting betting opportunity. Remember to do your research, evaluate key factors, and manage your bankroll responsibly to maximize your profits and enhance your enjoyment of the big game.

Carpe diem. Good luck.

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