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2025 Super Bowl First Half Betting Tips and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 2/4/2025

Super Bowl first half betting tips and predictions Kareem Hunt Kansas City Chiefs

Betting on the spreads and totals is the most popular market used for Super Bowl bets as its simplicity and added enjoyment when watching the game has made it a very popular option. However, betting on the first half can be even better. Not only do you get the benefit of possibly freerolling your second half or full game bets if the first half goes your way, but sportsbooks can fail to properly adjust to relevant first-half trends throughout the season. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Kansas City Chiefs First Half Trends:

The Kansas City Chiefs have been excellent at starting games off strong, as they have gone 14-5 in the first half in both the regular season and playoffs. While they went only 11-8 against the spread in the first half, Kansas City was still able to consistently beat the number in the opening half this year. While that wasn’t enough to translate into their overall against the spread record (8-10-1), the Chiefs were able to often turn those first half leads into close victories. Kansas City allowed the 7th fewest first half points, with 9.7 PPGA and scored the 9th most with 12.9 1H PPG. The Kansas City Chiefs have had the benefit of playing with the lead this season but also showed they can come from behind after they rallied against the Buffalo Bills. 

The Kansas City Chiefs understand the importance of starting strong. They were able to rally against the Philadelphia Eagles when these two teams met two years ago but cannot afford to dig themselves a similar hole. Philadelphia has a much improved run game with Saquon Barkley, and there is no doubt Andy Reid will have emphasized the importance of securing an early lead. Whoever wins this first half will likely win the game, and the Kansas City Chiefs have shown their abilities in the opening half this season. It has been easy to point out the numerous one-score victories for the Chiefs this season and discredit Mahomes’s 17-1 record this season. However, they went into the locker room with the lead 17 times this season and were able to design a game plan capable of seeing out the game. 

Philadelphia Eagles First Half Trends:

The Eagles are not far behind the Chiefs in their first half stats, going 13-4-3 in the first half this season. Their ability to run the football has allowed them to finish games off once they grab the lead, especially in the fourth quarter. The Eagles have already produced multiple 9+ minute fourth quarter drives when they have had the lead, and keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands will be crucial to their success. Philadelphia is 8th in the league in first half points with 13.1 PPG. While they hold a narrow advantage over the Chiefs on the offensive side of the ball, their first half defense has been excellent. They have allowed just 8.8 PPG in the first half this season, which has allowed them to never fall too far behind. Aside from a week 4 beatdown by the Buccaneers, the Eagles never trailed by more than a touchdown in the opening half this season. They have been exceptional in the second quarter specifically, allowing a league-low 4.5 PPG this season. The final possessions of the half can often dictate the eventual winner, and the Eagles ability to manage the clock while playing responsible football has been crucial to their success. Philadelphia has been able to ensure they end the half with the football more often than not, and they have seen the wins pile up as a result. 

Philadelphia took a lead into halftime in all three of their playoff games so far and won the second half, too, in all three victories. They have been a dominant football team from the opening kickoff to the final play and will look to steamroll the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. 

Super Bowl LIX First Half Picks: Chiefs vs Eagles

It is easy to discredit the first half when NFL teams are frequently able to pull off fourth quarter comebacks. Everyone loves a dramatic finish, but the game is often decided by a strong first half. Regardless of when it happens, a touchdown is always worth six points. And in a game like this one, an early lead could be a massive difference-maker. Teams that take a lead into halftime are 41-12 in the Super Bowl. There aren’t many weaknesses on either of these rosters, and pulling off a double digit comeback will be quite the tall task. It did happen when these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago after the Philadelphia Eagles took a 24-14 lead into the break. They were able to effectively use the final two minutes of the half, scoring a touchdown with 2:20 to go before kicking a field goal as the half expired. The Eagles may not be able to stretch the lead to double digits this time around, but I can assure you they will have a much better second half plan if they find themselves in a similar situation this season. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are -1.5 point favorites in the full game, but the first half odds couldn’t be closer. You can take the Chiefs on the -0.5 line at +105 odds, or keep it simple with a -115 moneyline bet. Alternatively, the Eagles have a -105 moneyline with -120 moneyline odds for a little insurance with a +0.5 line. 

For the first pick of the opening half, we will be taking the Philadelphia Eagles moneyline at -105 odds. It is understandable to see the Eagles as slight underdogs in the first half considering they are projected to lose the game. However, Philadelphia is the superior first half team, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a repeat of the 2023 Super Bowl with the Eagles taking a lead into the break. Philadelphia’s run-first style allows them to effectively manage the clock during end-of-half situations, and they will dictate the script in the closing minutes. It of course won’t matter if the Chiefs jump out to a first quarter lead, but all the value is on the Eagles to take a slight lead into halftime. Saquon Barkley does his best work in the first half, highlighted by a 60-yard opening play touchdown against the Washington Commanders. The Eagles don’t have a dominant quarterback capable of leading a late comeback, but they do have a towering offensive line capable of dominating the first half. While they may not be able to hold onto the lead, taking the Eagles to win the first half at -105 odds is a fantastic pick to make. 

For the second pick, we are going a bit out of the box with a first half touchdown scorer. While I am confident Saquon Barkley will find the end zone, the -200 touchdown odds make him unplayable. However, Barkley has +145 odds to score in the first half, and that is more than enough value to take a shot with the Eagles running back. Barkley thrives when he is fresh, as he effectively uses a surging offensive line to get easy yards up the field. He has scored 5 first half touchdowns in the regular season, but three of his four playoff touchdowns came in the first half this year. The +145 odds imply tremendous value for Barkley to scurry into the end zone and could be the best first half pick to make at Super Bowl LIX.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles 1H Moneyline -105

Pick: Saquon Barkley First Half Touchdown +145

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