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2025 Super Bowl Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 2/6/2025

Super Bowl betting trends Deandre Hopkins Kansas City Chiefs

Just like every other year, the Super Bowl will be the far and away most bet event of 2025. Last year, the United States wagered $23.1 billion on the Super Bowl, with billions more wagered around the world. This year, the Super Bowl is expected to eclipse $30 billion wagered, which would make it the most bet on a single event in history. A few crucial Super Bowl betting trends have emerged regarding this year’s big game which can be used when placing your wagers for this year. 

There are dozens of trends surrounding the Super Bowl, but one statistic sticks out like a sore thumb. The outright Super Bowl winner has gone an incredible 49-7-2 against the spread. While this trend is partially due to the fact there is usually a minimal point spread in the Super Bowl, it still cannot be ignored. If you are planning on backing the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, confidently lay the -1.5 or -2 points. However, if the Eagles are your preferred team of choice, tell the bookie to keep the points and take the +100 or +105 moneyline odds instead. Correctly using Super Bowl betting trends can go a long way in terms of potential profit, so make sure you carefully examine the trends for both of these teams before diving into the big game. 

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AFC Champion: Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are making their third consecutive trip to the Super Bowl, and they will be looking to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes has kept the Chiefs on top of the power rankings for the last half-decade, and that fact is unlikely to change. Despite the fact Kansas City went 17-2 in the regular season and playoffs, they went just 9-10 against the spread. The Chiefs are often overvalued, and this year has been no exception. However, they have been covering numbers recently, as if we omit a meaningless Week 18 game, Patrick Mahomes has gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games. Additionally, a last second meaningless safety against the Houston Texans was the only reason the Chiefs didn’t go 5-0. 

While the Chiefs haven’t been able to cover big spreads, they have done well as short favorites. Kansas City was a -5 or shorter favorite 8 times this season and went 7-1 against the spread in those games. They are once again short favorites against the Eagles, and could be poised for another win and cover in the Super Bowl. In the last four playoffs, the Chiefs have gone 9-3 against the spread. They have ridden strong defenses to crucial victories and can always count on Patrick Mahomes to deliver in the clutch. 

Another trend to keep an eye on is the string of Unders Kansas City has been on. They have gone 8-11 to the Under this season, with 6 of their last 8 games staying under the total. Casual bettors are quick to look at Patrick Mahomes and assume the Chiefs will engage in a shootout, but that is not the case. Kansas City has a very strong defense and has been able to consistently stay under the total as a result. 

NFC Champion: Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles shook off a 2-2 start, winning 15 of their last 16 games. They have been truly dominant on both sides of the ball, and oddsmakers have been reluctant to give this team the spreads they deserve. In addition to going 17-3, including the playoffs, the Eagles also lined the pockets of their bettors with a 13-7 against the spread record. Philadelphia has a punishing ground game capable of piling on the points while draining the clock. In the postseason, they have been 5- to 7-point favorites in all three meetings and covered the spread in two of their victories. This will be the first game of the playoffs where the Eagles are underdogs after they went a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread as underdogs in the regular season. 

Before this season, the Eagles have struggled in the postseason, going just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. They lost to the Buccaneers twice, and the Chiefs once in that span. However, the Eagles will be much more prepared for a season ending with glory, as their run game pairs nicely with their dominant defense. 

Speaking of, the recipe for Unders is strong run games and dominant defenses. The Eagles have the best defensive unit in the league, and they have the best running back with Saquon Barkley. Their ability to keep the clock rolling and limit the number of drives for their opponent has turned them into Under machines this season. They have gone 9-11 to the Under this year and only had a total of 50+ points once. 

Head to Head:
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles don’t play often, but when they do, it often comes with fireworks. Kansas City won four consecutive games against the Eagles since their 2009 defeat, capping it off with their stunning 38-35 victory in the 2023 Super Bowl. Philadelphia got their revenge in the following regular season, winning 21-17 at Arrowhead Stadium last season. In total, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 6-5 lead in wins, but trail the Eagles 275-273 in total points scored. The 48.5 point total for this year’s Super Bowl has been eclipsed just three times in the history of these two teams, but the two teams combined for 40+ points in 9 of their 11 meetings. 

Super Bowl Trends:

As previously mentioned, the most prevalent Super Bowl trend is that the Super Bowl winner also covers the spread. The outright winner has gone 49-7-2 against the spread, and that trend will only change if the Chiefs win by a single point this year. A one-point win is unlikely. Therefore, if you plan on backing the Chiefs, you can confidently take them against the spread. The Los Angeles Rams won but didn’t cover in 2022, which is the only blemish as the outright winner has gone 14-1 against the spread in the last 15 years. 

Regarding the total, the Super Bowl has gone exactly 28-28-1. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles soared over the total in their shootout two years ago. However, the Under tied the score back up after Kansas City held a dynamic 49ers offense to just 22 points despite the game going to overtime. This year, the total is at 48.5 points, which is slightly below the average total over the last decade. The Panthers and Broncos had a closing total of 43 points 10 years ago, and the next lowest total was 47.5 points last year. It is not surprising to see a low total this year. The Eagles and Chiefs have the 2nd and 4th fewest points allowed this season, while their offenses have scored just the 7th and 15th most points. Once you factor in the run-heavy nature of both of these offenses, another low scoring game appears to be on the cards. 

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