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2024 Super Bowl Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 1/31/2024

Super Bowl betting trends Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

The Super Bowl will be the most bet on sports event of the year, after shattering the previous record of $6.5 billion wagered in 2022, with $16 billion wagered in 2023. That record is expected to be broken once again, as last year the average American wagered $44 dollars on the big game. There are numerous trends heading into Sunday’s big game, as there are several alarming patterns surrounding both conference champions, and the Super Bowl itself.

There is one stat that reigns supreme, and that is that the outright winner almost always covers the spread. The winning Super Bowl franchise is a whopping 48-7-2 ATS. Therefore, one thing is certain. If you’re planning on betting the 49ers, confidently lay the points. However. if the Chiefs will be your selection, tell the bookie to keep the points, and take the plus-money moneyline price instead. Identifying Super Bowl betting trends can be a key difference-maker in keeping you in the green, and here are a few things to be mindful of before placing a single dollar on the big game.

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AFC Champion: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are quickly becoming perennial Super Bowl contenders, appearing in their 4th Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons. Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs are 2-1 straight up in the Super Bowl and are unsurprisingly 2-1 ATS, too. In the regular season this year, the Chiefs closed as the favorites in all but 2 games, (really 1 if you exclude a meaningless Week 18 tilt) and finished with a 9-8 ATS record to go with their 11-6 overall record. This was the first season the Chiefs finished with a positive ATS record since 2019, and they kept that ball rolling with 3 wins and covers in the postseason, including a pair of underdog road victories. While this was Mahomes’ worst season in a Chiefs uniform, finishing with the lowest passer rating and most losses of his career, his ability to turn it up when it matters most has kept the Chiefs relevant, and has them going to yet another Super Bowl.

While people are quick to look at the ATS record, it has been the Chiefs consistency at cashing Unders that has caught my attention. This is arguably the best defense Mahomes has been playing with throughout his Chiefs tenure. And while a lack of consistent offense can be to blame, a strong defense has turned the Chiefs into steady Under cashers. They’ve gone Under in 14/20 games this season, including 2/3 playoff victories. When bettors hear about the Chiefs, their first thought is the Chiefs offense, rather than what has turned into an elite defensive unit.

NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers

This was always going to be the case, wasn’t it? The 49ers were cruelly dispatched by the Eagles in last year’s NFC title game after losing Brock Purdy and backup Josh Johnson to injury. They came into this year as the Super Bowl favorites and have remained at the top of the betting odds for a majority of the season. The 49ers got off to a flying start, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS to start the season. However, 3 straight losses as 4.5 or larger favorites had the public doubting San Francisco, before they strung together 6 straight wins to set up a tilt with the AFC leading Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day. The 49ers were humbled by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but they still finished up the season 12-5 straight up, securing the No. 1 seed in the process. The 49ers were 9-8 ATS in the regular season but failed to cover in both of their playoff wins, dropping them back below .500. The 49ers have been understandable favorites throughout the year. However, considering both of their playoff wins were by a mere 3 points, it’s expected that they are just 2 point favorites against the Chiefs.

Head-to-Head:

These two teams met in the 2020 Super Bowl, where the Chiefs erased a double-digit, 4th-quarter deficit, to win the Super Bowl by a score of 31-20. The 49ers were a very different team in that game, and they had their first chance at redemption last season, but got embarrassed at home, 44-23. The 49ers got the better of the Chiefs in the early stages of these franchises’ history, with San Francisco jumping out to a 6-3 season series lead by 2002. However, the Chiefs have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, including Super Bowl LIV, and will be confident they can increase their lead over San Francisco.

Super Bowl Trends:

First and foremost, the trend of the moneyline winners also covering the spread looks like a solid bet to continue this year, as the 49ers would have to win by 1 or 2 points to break the streak. The outright winner is 48-7-2 ATS, so if you’re betting on the Chiefs, take the ML, and if you’re betting on the 49ers, take the spread.

The Super Bowl totals are nearly split, with the Over having a 28-27-1 record, and the Under streak of 4 straight years was snapped in last year's Chiefs Super Bowl victory. However, a solid trend remains for the Under. When the total is in the 40’s, the Under has cashed in 6 of the last 8 opportunities. And with the total set at 47.5, and firmly holding there, it will be in play once again. There are a variety of Super Bowl trends that can be analyzed, but there is one that sticks out above the rest, and that is the overvaluation of the run game. The team that has finished the season with more rushing yards is a miserable 5-14 ATS since 2005. This may seem like a coincidence, but in the Super Bowl, coaches feel the pressure to deliver a good football game. Teams that heavily rely on the run in the regular season will be inclined to open up the playbook and waver from what got them there in the first place. On the other hand, the flashy teams can just keep doing what they’re doing and put on a show while the world is watching. The 49ers were far and away the better team on the ground. And if they elect to spice things up, it could certainly lead to their demise.

Last year, the Chiefs snapped a streak of 8 straight games where the coin toss winner went on to lose the game. They correctly picked tails, and went on to win, but I will certainly be keeping an eye on whether or not this specific trend picks back up where it left off in this year’s Super Bowl. 

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