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2024 Super Bowl Betting for Dummies and Novice Bettors

by Joey House - 2/8/2024

Super Bowl betting for dummies and novice bettors Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

In just a few days, one of the greatest American sports spectacles will take place when the reigning champions Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII (58 for those of you who are Roman numeral challenged). With the rapid proliferation of legalized gambling throughout the country, every Super Bowl will introduce a portion of the population to the exciting world of sports betting.

Here at Doc's Sports, our profession is to educate not just the savvy handicapper, but also help the novices navigate the murky waters that wagering on sports can be. We have you covered from your first spread bet to your last same-game parlay (SGP). One of our most respected handicappers, Robert Ferringo, offers some outstanding ideas to consider when betting on the big game.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

San Francisco is a 2-point favorite and -120 ML- What does that mean?

When betting a team to win, there are two ways to make a wager: moneyline bets and point-spread bets. A moneyline bet is taking one team to simply win the game, no matter if it is a 1-point margin of victory or 28-point beatdown. The -120 means for you to win $100, you need to invest $120. Then, if you bet the Niners and they win, you would collect $220, you're initial $120 wager plus $100 profit.

Let's say you want to bet on Kansas City and think it'll be a close game but that they probably won't win, you would bet Kansas City +2 points, and that's known as a point-spread bet. You have two ways to win your wager: If the Chiefs win the game outright, you win. However, you ALSO win your bet if they lose but the margin of defeat is within the point spread. Since this spread is on the small side, you only win your bet if the Niners win by one point (for example, 21-20). If the game ends with the Niners winning by exactly 2 points, that's called a push and you get your wager back but nothing else.

Sides and totals- Sounds like a restaurant order

When you place a wager (point spread or moneyline) on a team, that's known as a "side". But what happens if you don't have a strong opinion on who is going to win, you just think these two teams are going to "go HAM" and score like crazy. Can you bet on that?

Absolutely! That's called a totals bet and is often shown as O/U, for Over/Under, and is calculated by adding the combined points scored by both teams. The O/U for SB 58 is 47.5 points. Now, for those who are truly uneducated in football scoring, all of the points are whole numbers, so the half a point just guarantees that there will be a winner and a loser, rather than a possible push. Betting the OVER 47.5 wins if the score is 28-21 (49 total points) but loses if it is 27-20 (47 total points scored).

Parlay- Isn't that a meeting between pirates?

For those people who crave more action and want a bigger payout than the standard -110 (putting up $110 to win $100), sportsbooks created "parlays," which simply combine two (or more) single wagers together to increase the payout. For example, if you think that the Niners are going to cover the 2-point spread in a defensive battle, you could wager: San Francisco -2 and UNDER 47.5 for +276. This means if you put up $100, you would WIN $276 and COLLECT $376 ($100 wager plus $276 winnings). However, if San Francisco wins a shootout (38-24 final score), then your parlay loses because you only satisfied one leg successfully.

Parlays are attractive to many recreational bettors because of the increased payout when the wager is successful. Adding more and more legs substantially increases the payout. On the flip side, serious handicappers know that multi-leg parlays are not only incredibly difficult to hit but don't come close to offering the true odds of what they should.

Our recommendation is to have fun with your parlays, but don't put your entire bankroll on them.

What's the buzz about prop bets?

Proposition bets, or "prop bets", are wagers on individual performances that can be independent of the outcome of the game. For example, if you think that Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is going to have trouble rushing against the Chiefs' defense and have a bad game, you could make a bet McCaffrey UNDER 90.5 rushing yards -110. This means you put up $110 in betting the Christian rushes for 90 yards or under. If he does this, you win your bet, no matter if San Francisco wins or loses the actual game. Just as with game parlays, you can combine single prop bets into what's called a "Same-Game Parlay" (or SGP for short).

As our expert handicapper, Robert Ferringo, pointed out in his article, these wagers can be a treasure trove for the bettor because the sportsbooks make so many of them to attract the casual gambler. This is just one of the many reasons that Doc's is so valuable because we have a handful of professional handicappers that look for nothing but soft or weak lines that will help Joe Bettor win his wager.

How much should I bet?

The most important rule when it comes to gambling is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. There is an old poker saying that also applies to sports betting "Poker is a tough way to make an easy living." While it may seem like a great idea to pay your next month's rent from your winnings, sports are the epitome of uncertainty and anything can, and will, happen.

There is no doubt that betting on a game increases the excitement of that event. So, pick an amount that you can justify as an "entertainment expense" and have fun. If you win, that's fantastic. Conversely, if you lose, that's too bad but hopefully, you had an enjoyable experience. Click this link for more info on Super Bowl betting money management.

Here are a couple of wagers that you could make and the reasoning behind them, depending on if you believe the Niners or Chiefs are going to win the game. All of the odds generated are from the DraftKings sportsbook.

If San Francisco wins

SGP: San Francisco -2/Christian McCaffrey to score 2 or more TDs/CMC OVER 129.5 Total Yards +500- If you think the Niners are the team to beat, most likely it will be with a solid effort from their star running back, Christian McCaffrey. CMC is not only a virtual touchdown machine, he's a multiple-TDs-in-a-game monster. McCaffrey has touched paydirt more than twice a game five times during the regular season and in both of the Niners' playoff victories. The beautiful thing about this wager is that both the yards and touchdowns can come via the ground or through the air. CMC has gone over the 129.5 total yard mark nine times during the regular season and again in both of San Francisco's playoff wins. A $20 wager would payout $120 if this pretty easy bet cashes.

If Kansas City wins

SGP: Kansas City ML +102/Kelce Anytime TD/Mahomes OVER alt 10.5 rushing yards/Harrison Butker OVER 1.5FGs made +485

If you're a Chiefs fan or a Swiftie who wants to bet on her man, here's a great combo for you. Kelce scored in 7 total games this season (including playoffs). KC lost only one of those games where he scored, which is pretty impressive. In the majority of prop bets that are based on total yards gained by a player, sportsbooks offer "Alternative" totals, meaning you can change the number to your liking (obviously affecting the odds as well). Putting Mahomes' ALT rushing yards at 10.5 is virtually guaranteeing that you win that leg of the wager, as he's hit that mark in all but five of the games he played this season. Butker is 33-35 in the field goal department and has made 2 or more in an impressive 12 games this season.

Doc's has not just your Superbowl coverage, but every sport, 365 days a year...and we're giving our faithful readers an extra day's worth of coverage this month. You're guaranteed to be a winner if you're a regular patient of Doc's.

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