Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2023 Sun Belt Conference Football Predictions with Season Win Total Picks

by Joey House - 8/14/2023

Sun Belt football predictions Grayson McCall Coastal Carolina

Most of the college football previews cover, understandably, the bigger conferences like Power 5, the Mountain West, etc. At Docs, we look for value EVERYWHERE, and as such, while we cover the big boys too, we recognize some of the smaller conferences are amazingly profitable. One of those markets is the Sun Belt, stretching from Virginia to Texas. One of the key members of the SBC is Appalachian State, who every good football fan knows upset the #5-ranked Michigan Wolverines in the Big House back in 2007. We'll provide a quick rundown for each team and give some predictions for the upcoming season. The teams will be listed in order of predicted finish in their division, with their 2022 record in parentheses.

Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Sun Belt Conference East Division Predictions

Appalachian State (6-6): 2022 was App State's worst since it joined the FBS, failing to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2013 when they were still an FCS powerhouse. They return seven starters on offense and four on defense. Some games to key on are their season finale against Georgia Southern, who is on a 5-game ATS win streak, and Georgia State, with App St. posting a 9-0 SU and a 6-2-1 ATS mark against their division rivals from Georgia. They should easily win more than their 6.5 season win total.

Coastal Carolina (9-4): As I already covered James Madison, who I believe will finish in 2nd place in the SBC East, we move on to Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers bring back their starting QB, seven other offensive starters, and 94% of their 405.5 YPG offense. CCU is 8-2 SU in their L10 at home, but only 2-7-1 ATS. The O/U for those games was 7-3. They have a season win total of 7.5 and should go above that for a second straight year.

Marshall (9-4): With seven returning starters on offense (including their QB), they look to improve on an offense that generated 398 YPG while putting up 24.5 PPG. A few trends to key on is Marshall's 2-4 ATS record at home against conference opponents. Four of those contests went under the total. A brutal nonconference schedule makes taking their season total under the 7.5 wins the wise bet.

Georgia Southern (6-7): The Eagles look to rebound from last season as they return nine offensive starters, including their QB. They also enjoy a significant advantage in offensive line experience. This bodes well for an offense that was 18th in the country with an average of 466.7 YPG. The Eagles play well at home, going 13-7 in both SU and ATS in their last 20 home games, with the under cashing in 12 times. They have a season win total of 6, and I believe they will win at least 7.

Georgia State (4-8): The Good: The Panthers had a balanced offense that averaged 214 yards rushing and 204 yards passing. The Bad: Their defense gave up 399 yards. They bring back seven on offense (QB included) and five on defensive. They are ATS road warriors, going 8-2 against the mark in their last 10 road games, including a win as a 16-point underdog. They are going against a 5.5 win total, and I think they'll be able to beat that.

Old Dominion (3-9): The Monarchs beat Virginia Tech in the season opener and then finished 2-9. They also had their offensive coordinator resign three weeks before that game. They return only seven starters (four offense and three defense), but that may be a good thing for an offense that could muster only 92 yards per game on the ground. ODU plays Liberty on 11/11, and the L3 meetings averaged 62 PPG and all went over. They have a season win total of 3.5. However, with a difficult schedule (two ACC opponents), that could prove tough sledding.

Sun Belt Conference West Division Predictions

South Alabama (10-3): The Jaguars return nine starters on both sides of the ball, including their QB, who threw for over 3335 yards and 28 touchdowns. They bring back four returning starters on the offensive line that powered an offense that averaged 424 yards per game and allowed on;y 26 sacks. They have a tough nonconference schedule, traveling to Oklahoma State and playing Central Michigan at home. While USA went 7-1 SU last year in the conference, they were only 3-5 ATS against other SBC schools. They were also 2-0 ATS after a SU loss. Their win total is anywhere from 7.5 to 8, but that doesn't matter as the most talented and experienced team in the SBC should once again own the West and play in the SBC Championship.

Troy (12-2): The Troy Trojans were a money-making machine last season, with an 11-3 ATS mark to go with that stellar 12-2 SU record. They were 4-2 SU as underdogs and a perfect 6-0 ATS in that role. They return six starters on each side of the ball, including their QB. He threw for 2,818 yards but had 14 TDs and 12 INTs. They have never lost to Texas State as SBC rivals (8-0 SU) and also have a 5-3 ATS record. Troy's season win total is 8, and they should challenge South Alabama for the SBC West crown and reach double-digit victories for the second year in a row.

Southern Mississippi (7-6): The Golden Eagles are poised for a big turnaround and look to challenge South Alabama and Troy for the SBC West crown. The focal point of this offense is Frank Gore, Jr. He stepped onto the national stage by averaging 6.1 yards per carry for 1,382 yards and nine TDs. Overall, they return nine offensive starters, including the QB, and six on defense. They have a tough nonconference schedule, highlighted by a week two matchup at Florida State, a team they haven't beaten since Brett Favre led them to an upset victory in 1989. Southern Miss was money in the bank for bettors, going 10-3 ATS and a perfect 5-0 ATS against non-SBC foes. They have a win total of 5.5, and the over is my BEST BET in the SBC, as they should contend for the division crown.

Louisiana (6-7): Louisiana finished in a two-way tie for 3rd place in the SBC West with rival Southern Mississippi. The Ragin Cajuns have two QBs, and four other offensive players, returning from an offense that averaged 26.2 PPG and 364 total yards a game. Unfortunately, the players that left were in were in several skill positions, so there may some growing pains. Louisiana is just another one of the SBC schools that have dominated Texas State, winning 10 SU and 9-1 ATS. The Ragin Cajuns are also a live dog at home, going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS when getting points at home. Their win total is at 6.5. And while I believe they'll reach six wins, I'm leaning towards the under 6.5 total.

Arkansas State (3-9): The Seawolves have 11 returning starters, five offensive and six defensive, and they will be immediately tested when they travel to Oklahoma to start the season. However, since 2020, Arkansas St. is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. They'll probably be getting 47 points in that contest. They had an anemic rushing attack and barely an average passing one. They have a win total of 4.5, and sadly I don't see a way for them to get to five victories for the season.

UL-Monroe (4-8): Last year they returned eight offensive starters (with the QB) and could only average 326 yards of offense a game and 22.3 PPG. They lost their top three running backs, both QBs, and five of their top seven receivers. ULM also presents a slight challenge as a home dog, going 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS when getting points at their place. That will most likely happen early (Army in week one) and often throughout the year. Their season win total is 3.5, and the under is the play to make.

Texas State (4-8): G.J. Kinne, the former QB at Texas and Tulsa, is the new head coach, and he has his work cut out for him. The Bobcats return seven offensive starters and all four of their top running backs. Their defense wasn't horrible at all, giving up only 361 YPG and 26.3 PPG. Unfortunately, they have only four returning starters. While virtually every SBC team owns Texas State, ironically, the one team that struggles with them is South Alabama. TSU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home against Jaguars. The Bobcats have had only two non-losing seasons in their 12-year FBS history. With a season win total of 4.5, Vegas is banking on that trend to continue. I don't disagree and think they'll struggle to get four wins and should stay under this mark.

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

 

Most Recent College Football Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers