2007 Sun Belt Conference Preview
by Jordan Adams - 07/25/2007
Not exactly any editor's choice for the model of entertainment, the Sun Belt Conference once again has its difficulties in pulling the average college football fan in and making their games fun to watch. If anything, the rise back to the top of Troy should help, as the Trojans are the most recognizable program hidden in the mid south.
JUCO transfer quarterback Omar Haugabook took the league by storm last season in his first year with Troy. They split the regular season crown with upstart Middle Tennessee State, and eventually turned some heads with a shocking 41-17 bowl victory over Rice. While the Blue Raiders will fall back to mediocrity in 2007, Troy will stay at the top and fight for a second straight league crown.
Aside from the Trojans, it's still unclear if anyone else will be able to truthfully contend throughout the year with conference power Troy. Arkansas State finished 6-6 last season, but they should be able to achieve a winning season, and getting Troy at home also helps. As for the rest of the Sun Belters, well, they'll be good for their usual non-conference shellacking on the road from some of the nation's best.
Teams on the Rise:
Not only has Troy been a mainstay at the top of the standings for a while in the Sun Belt, but they have also shown no fear in going head-to-head with some legit powers every season. Last year they played Georgia Tech and Florida State tough, and this year they will try and throw a wrench into play, attempting to shock the likes of Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma State and defending champ Florida.
If anyone is going to challenge Troy for the Sun Belt title, it's going to be Arkansas State. Still fairly young, the Indians start sophomores Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold at their quarterback and tailback positions. Defense will be the key for ASU, led by a veteran secondary where three starters return in the back four. Tough tasks arise on the road against Texas and Tennessee, but when it gets to league play, winning looks to be on the horizon.
Teams on the Decline:
Middle Tennessee State had its chance to steal the conference crown outright last season, however they came up just short in a 21-20 outcome against eventual champ Troy in late November. They then followed that difficult setback with a bad loss in the team's bowl game to Central Michigan, 31-14. Things this year don't look good in terms of another winning season. You can chalk up three non-conference losses against Louisville, LSU and Virginia, and the conference schedule doesn't look any better than .500 the rest of the way.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
North Texas still has one of the league's top performers in senior rusher Jamario Thomas. Despite an off year in 2006, it was more the lack of a quarterback presence that derailed any shot for the Mean Green ascending to the top. Again, quarterback play will hamper this team throughout the year, and offense in general is not a strong point for the team from Denton, Texas.
Money Player (player to bet on):
The one team in the conference that can actually light up the scoreboards on occasion, Troy will go as far as Haugabook will take them. As a junior he accounted for 2,401 yards and 21 touchdowns, and with top receiver Gary Banks and top rusher Kenny Cattouse ready to help carry the load, Troy will spark a very strong 2007 season.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
The Mean Green offense is something to stay away from. If anyone followed North Texas last season, they were straight up anemic when trying to produce points. While the defense did well to keep them in games, you can't exactly rely on special teams touchdowns and turnovers to win games. Offensively, don't rely on this unit, because they shouldn't be touched with a 10-foot poll.
Important Betting Trends:
Middle Tennessee State held true to form, as the Raiders produced a 7-4 mark ATS from their seven victories in 2006. Outside of that, everything else was upside down from what happened in the standings. UL-Monroe was just 4-7 last year, but they proved to be a consistent moneymaker, ending the season 8-3 against the number. Certainly that was a breath of fresh air, however that's as far as it goes for Sun Belt team being successful for backers. Troy was 6-5 ATS and everyone else found the cellar below the .500 mark.
Potential Conference Champ:
The good thing for Troy is that their non-conference slate won't determine their spot in the conference. The Trojans have a brutal schedule approaching before they open Sun Belt play, but these games could serve as building blocks to getting ready for a much easier conference measuring stick. On the road against SEC powers Florida and Georgia, as well as Arkansas, the offense will struggle, but once league play gets underway the Sun Belt goes to Troy.
Key Games:
Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic, Sept. 1 - FAU could be this season's Middle Tennessee, and the Owls have a chance to take them out head-on when they two meet in the season opener.
Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette, Nov. 16 - Another potential Sun Belt up-and-comer, UL-Lafayette will get its chance to knock off the potential titleholders Troy in their own building.
Troy at Arkansas State, Oct. 27 - The league's top two programs collide with a good shot of deciding the league crown right here and now. Troy owes the Indians for having dropped a home game to ASU last season.
Predicted order of finish:
Troy, Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida International