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2024 St. Louis Cardinals Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/27/2024

St. Louis Cardinals predictions Paul Goldschmidt

Summary of Last Season

Last season was incredibly disappointing for the St. Louis Cardinals. Their pitching was terrible, and the team would go on to finish last in the NL Central with a 71-91 record. St. Louis finished 33 games behind the Braves and missed the playoffs by 13 games. They actually performed one game better than their expected record of 70-92.

The Cardinals offense was one of the few lineups in the MLB that largely stayed intact night in and night out. Eight players appeared in 107 or more games, with seven of them recording more than 400 ABs. Only three players would post a WAR north of 3.0, with Paul Goldschmidt and Wilson Contreras each posting a 3.4 WAR and Lars Nootbaar finished with a 3.3 WAR. Nolan Gorman led the team with 27 homeruns, while Nolan Arenado finished with 26 and Goldschmidt with 25, the only Cardinals to record more than 20 homeruns. Arenado led the way with 93 RBIs, while Tommy Edman led the club with 27 stolen bases. The Cardinals would go on to finish 19th in runs, 12th in homeruns, 20th in stolen bases, and 13th in OPS.

The average lineup did outperform the below average pitching staff. Though the Cardinals did have five pitchers throw more than 100 innings, their combined ERA was 4.78. Miles Mikolas recorded 201.1 innings, leading the team, but posted a 4.78 ERA. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty also recorded more than 100 innings in a Cardinals uniform but were both shipped out of town before the deadline. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley combined for 24 saves as the tandem anchored a weaker bullpen. Helsley’s 2.45 ERA was the best among pitchers to record at least 30 innings of work. St. Louis ranked 244th in ERA and 27th in WHIP.

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St. Louis Cardinals Key Additions/Losses

At season’s end, Adam Wainwright retired, and Drew VerHagen became a free agent. Dakota Hudson, Juan Yepez, Jake Woodford, and Andrew Knizner were all non-tendered clearing up some spots on the 40-man roster. The Cardinals would also trade Tyler O’Neil to Boston.

However, the offseason was a huge positive for the direction of this club. The Cardinals reinforced their starting rotation by signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn. They reinforced the bullpen by adding Andrew Kittredge in a trade with Tampa Bay and by signing Kenyan Middleton. The club also brought back former fan favorite Matt Carpenter on a one-year deal and signed long time veteran Brandon Crawford to add some more depth.

St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Outlook

Shortstop Masyn Winn (1st) is expected to be the everyday shortstop, providing a big defensive upgrade to the middle of the infield. Joining Winn are pitchers Ryan Fernandez (25th) and Drew Rom (29th) who will get the chance to provide some depth to the bullpen. Outfielder Victor Scott II (4th) was also called up and will start the year with St. Louis as a backup. Tink Hence (2nd), Tekoah Roby (3rd), and Gordon Graceffo (9th) are also arms to keep an eye on as they will likely get some time with St. Louis at some point this season.

St. Louis Cardinals X-Factors

The Goldy/Arenado tandem- This veteran duo has not quite worked out the way the Cardinals execs had envisioned. Both stars are aging and are seeing a slight decline in their numbers. Time is running out to take advantage of these expensive signings.

Nolan Gorman- The second baseman showcased a lot of power last season and led the team in homeruns in his rookie year. He just can’t hit left-handed pitching. If he can find his way into the lineup every day, he will be one of the league’s best raw power hitters.

Veteran Presence- It is all about the veteran presence for the Cardinals. There are plenty of youngsters like Gorman, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, and Jordan Walker, but the Cardinals now have an older roster. The pitching staff brought in five veteran arms during the offseason, while St. Louis added Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter to aid in the development of the youngsters.

St. Louis Cardinals Expectations

A complete 180. The Cardinals went from finishing in the basement of the NL Central last season, to now being the favorites to win it in the 2024. They have a loaded farm system that they can use in the trade market, but also can depend on if the prospects are needed to come to the big leagues. The lineup will look the same but should be better with Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman getting another season. The rotation will look a lot better, but health remains a question mark as Sonny Gray is already slated to miss some time and others in the rotation have injury riddled careers.

St. Louis Cardinals Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +3000

Pennant Winners- +1600

Division Winners- +150

NL MVP- Nolan Arenado- +4000

NL MVP- Paul Goldschmidt- +5000

NL Cy Young- Sonny Gray- +5000

St. Louis Cardinals Predictions

I like the Cardinals to improve their record from a season ago, but I do not think this is a playoff team. They are close, but the NL Wild Card race is going to be packed with the Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks who are all better on paper. Their win total projects at 84.5 and I think they will sit right around the number. Unless they make a trade or two to improve the pitching staff, I think the Cardinals will just miss the postseason, and will lose the division race to the Cubs.

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