Smart Sports Betting Tips for Long-Term Wagering Success

by Jeremy Martin - 8/28/2023

Sports betting tips for wagering success Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

This article originally appeared in the 2023 Doc’s Sports Journal

If there’s anything I have learned in almost 30 years of daily sports betting, it’s that there is something new to learn every day. Even the sharpest bettors in the world are constantly learning, adapting, and diversifying. What worked yesterday doesn’t always work today. And the sports world is always in a state of flux.

When I started betting NFL, defenses and running games ruled the league. But now, pro football betting totals are regularly posted in the 50s, and there were only two running backs picked in the first round of the last two drafts combined. I used to love betting the “under” on NBA totals that were in the 170s or 180s. Now, it’s extremely rare to see a total under 200 in any game in the NBA.

I started betting in Las Vegas right around the time when the Internet was becoming widely accessible. However, at that time, it sure wasn’t much help for sports betting. I had to build my handicapping acumen from watching the games and studying the local newspaper. Now, every stat imaginable is available right on your smartphone. You can follow small school beat writers on social media and get keen insight into the inner workings of programs you’ve barely heard of. Sports betting is now legal in many states in the U.S., and it has never been easier to place a bet. And with all this information, it has never been easier to place a GOOD bet.

Bookies and oddsmakers are smarter than ever, however. In a perfect world, they get 50 percent of the handle on each side in a sports matchup and collect a guaranteed percentage on their commission. Think of it like pari-mutuel betting for horse racing. When wagers come in on one horse, the odds all move across the board based on a mathematical formula, ensuring the house takes a predetermined percentage. But sports betting operators are often not satisfied with a simple 10 percent hold. The best bookies know their clients’ betting patterns and set the odds to make the most revenue possible.

Even though the bookies are way smarter than 99.99 percent of the sports betting population, they are not infallible. They have to set lines for often hundreds of matchups every day. They don’t pay the same attention to third- or fourth-tier international soccer leagues or small conference college basketball teams in the same way they might for a Monday Night Football matchup in the NFL. So, there are daily opportunities for those willing to do their research.

Even though the act of handicapping has become easier, the winning margins have become slimmer. The guys who take the bets have access to all the same information we do. Long gone are the days where an astute handicapper could have a massive edge over the bookies for multiple sporting events each day. It’s more difficult than ever in the present day and age to make a living purely betting on sports.

However, there are some tried and true guidelines to practice that can give you the best chance to win long term. Here are some of my top sports betting tips to give you the best chance to become a sharp bettor. Some may seem basic, or even common knowledge, but these are the most important, and every successful long-term bettor in the world employs these basic strategies.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

1) Discipline Is Key

This is the most important sports betting tip for success. An undisciplined bettor is for sure going to lose long term, no matter how good they are at picking winners. This is a facet of sports betting that I still struggle with to this day. Who doesn’t want to make some money back on Sunday Night Football after an 0-4 effort in the early games? It’s human nature to want to chase your bets. However, just say no! If you feel the need to make rash decisions after losses, it’s best to take a deep breath and take a step back. There are always more games and bets to make tomorrow.

Similarly, don’t get too cocky on winning streaks. Having a 6-0 day on college football Saturday and feel like you can’t lose? It can be easy to start throwing around some foolish wagers on games you didn’t originally plan on betting, and that is a sure-fire way to put a dent in your bankroll. Resist the urge to “let it ride,” and never make wagers when under the influence of drugs or alcohol, as those tend to not be the soundest bets.

Disciplined bettors do their research, map out their bets, and stick to the plan.

2) Money Management

This is probably the most boring aspect of sports betting, so I will keep it short. Determine a dollar amount per unit and stick to that. If your bankroll increases, then you can increase your per-unit bet. If your bankroll decreases, you lower your per-unit dollar amount.

Doc’s Sports uses a Unit System for money management based on strength of the play, 1 through 8 units. The dollar amount for one unit should never be more than one percent of your bankroll. You can read more about our Unit System, originated by our founder, Doc Moseman, and copied by many, here.

3) Have Multiple Outs

Winning bettors need to hit 53 percent or better on their wagers over the long term. It’s crucial to get the best number on a game you are going to bet.

Sportsbooks are all different. They have different clients with different betting patterns. If you have placed the majority of your bets with one entity, you would be surprised how often you can get a better line if you have access to multiple betting sources, or “outs”. And it isn’t always half a point on the spread or five cents on the moneyline, either, as sometimes you can get a full point or better on the spread or 20 cents on the moneyline. While that extra half point or point -- or 5 or 10 cents on the moneyline -- might not make that big of a difference in your bets for that day, it will really add up in the long run.

I could only imagine how much profit difference to my long-term bankroll I have enjoyed by having multiple outs at my disposable and getting the best line for every matchup I wager on. Over the course of the time I have been betting, it could be in the tens of thousands of dollars.

4) Accounting, Accounting, Accounting

Keep track of your wagering history in a spreadsheet. This helps keep you honest in case you have problems with discipline. If you have a record of your bad bets, it will help you avoid making the same mistakes in the future. This will also help find spots where you could improve your handicapping, and it will help stay on track for money management.

I keep an Excel spreadsheet for each sport I wager on, for each year. That way I have a record of my losses or profits, and I can pinpoint areas where improvement is needed.

5) Specialization

If you become a specialist in one sport or team, and bet that religiously, you will probably have success in the long term. Even better, to become an expert on sports that the oddsmakers don’t spend much time on will help you generate profit. I’m not talking about NFL football here. The bookies take the most handle on pro football as opposed to other sports, so you aren’t going to find mistakes in the lines (the NFL lines are set for public consumption, creating value in some situations, but that is a story for another day). If you specialize on the Patriot League in college football, and become an expert on the subject, then there could be opportunities to get a step on the oddsmakers, who don’t spend as much time on the number for a smaller conference college football game compared to, say, a Monday Night Football game.

For example, I like to bet on soccer. There are some crazy leagues out there that only the diehards bet on. We are talking Mexican second tier here. I often pick an obscure league and follow them intently, and I can regularly find situations where the odds are way off from what I expected.

6) Start Slow

For newbies to the sports betting world, I always recommend starting off slow. Like real slow. Like $5 a bet slow. When you first learned how to swim, did you jump into the deep end with reckless abandon? You don’t want to approach sports betting that way, either. There is absolutely no shame in making $5 or less wagers and use that as a learning tool. I wouldn’t recommend betting with “fake money” or make-believe money. You can learn best when you have real money wagered on a matchup. It doesn’t have to be a lot. Once you feel comfortable with your wagering, then it’s time to start raising the amount of your bets.

7) If All Else Fails…. Doc’s!

If these betting tips sound like too much work – and they are a lot of work – then you can have Doc’s Sports do the heavy lifting for you. Doc’s has been one of the most trusted names in sports betting since the early 1970s – that’s more than five decades in the business. We have 12 of the best handicappers in the business selling predictions on our site, as well as two of the top text-based betting systems online. For our guys, this isn’t a hobby -- this is a lifestyle, complete with never-ending research and a 365-days-a-year grind. Our guys cover everything from the major sports leagues, to golf, NASCAR, tennis, WNBA, combat sports, and even Korean baseball. Doc’s handicapping stable is always looking for new ways to beat the bookies, and we have an assortment of packages that will fit any budget. I literally used to be a client years before I started working at Doc’s. We also offer a free $60 worth of member’s picks to new clients to “test drive” our service, so head here to try us out!

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Start:	December 12, 2024 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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