Carl Edwards did his customary fifth back flip of the season after he won at Michigan last week as he appears to be one of the few drivers to give Kyle Busch a challenge for the Sprint Cup this year. They'll duel it out under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway at 7 p.m. on Saturday and the race will be televised by the ESPN.

Investors who follow trends should be aware that Chevrolet has won at Bristol three times in the last four races. When you see Smoke leading at Bristol, not an unusual sight, don't expect him to win the race because something always happens to poor Tony at Bristol.

Who will win the Sharpie 500?

Last week we backed Carl Edwards to win the 3M 400. He won thanks to a great pit stop on Lap 180 when he beat race leader Kyle Busch out of the pits. Then on restart Edwards beat Busch at his own game and won the race and cashed my ticket at 5/1. Edwards also won the Nationwide race on Saturday, sweeping the weekend at MIS.

Edwards managed to gain on point's leader Busch and now sits 222 points out of first. The good news for Edwards is that he is the defending event champion at Bristol. This week it's short-track racing at its best under the lights. But it will take a lot for Edwards to get his third win in four races for his sixth back flip of the year.

That said I don't think either Busch or Edwards will win on Saturday night. With the distractions at Joe Gibbs Racing this week, a pit crew that has let him down a few times in recent weeks, and a mid-week truck race (he won), Busch will have to pray for rain to wash out qualifiers or start from the top of the grid. In March Busch started in slot 22 and only improved five spots by the end of the race. At Bristol don't confuse him for Kurt who won here four times in a row back in the Winston and Nextel Cup days.

The strategy I went with was the team that specialized in 2-mile tracks and it worked. This week I'll use the same logic and jump on the team that does well at the half-mile oval. This is why I like the No. 29 car and Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been racing really well lately. He has posted four top-10 finishes in the last five races of which two races he finished in the top-five. Harvick is in eighth place on the Sprint Cup leaderboard at 617 points behind Busch. In the March race he finished second, but led for 32 laps.

It was a banner day in March for Richard Childress Racing as they took 1-2-3 at the Food City 500 with Jeff Burton winning the race and Clint Bowyer in third. My pick in that race, Tony Stewart, had the race all but won until Kevin Harvick took him into the wall on lap 497.

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, (10/1)

Solid Gold Picks

Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Sharpie 500 this weekend. Last weekend we did not have a matchup. My record Over-the-Wall stands at 12-13 and -.70 units on the season after 23 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. This week there are plenty of matchups to choose from and, as usual, "the man" has laid several traps for the casual investor. I'm going beyond P/E ratios on this week's investment and banking on what I like to call, "the intangibles."

Long Odds Pick

Last week's long odds pick, Brian Vickers, (20/1), startled even me by being the fastest at qualifying and started the race from the pole. But even being the pole-sitter Vickers finished a respectable, but disappointing, seventh. This week I like RCR's Jeff Burton to spice-up my Saturday evening entertainment. Burton, who has been in the top five all year, is currently in fifth place in the Chase for the Sprint Cup with 3,080 points. He's only 349 points behind the leader. With the next two out of three races on short-tracks Burton could conceivably make up some points, if not against Busch, but the other drivers ahead of him. Another incentive is the 10 bonus points awarded per win by NASCAR for the Chase. It is not entirely inconceivable that Burton could sweep Bristol this year. It's obvious from the spring race that RCR has figured out BMS. It's up to their drivers to implement the plan.

Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, (18/1)

Square Tire Pick

Martin Truex, Jr., No. 01, (even) vs. Clint Bowyer, No. 07, (-1.15)

This play is strictly team vs. team with my investment backing the better of the two. DEI has more questions than answers despite re-signing Treux Jr. for the next few years. The other side of this matchup is Richard Childress Racing who came in 1-2-3 in the March race; with Bowyer finishing third to Treux Jr's 13th place finish. At Martinsville, another half-mile track, the following week, Truex Jr., battled from 42nd to finish the race in 21st place while Bowyer held steady with another top-ten finish.

Pick! Clint Bowyer, No. 07, (-1.15) for three units

Sharpie 500 Odds*
Bristol Motor Speedway
Saturday, August 23rd (7:00pm EST)

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brad Coleman 200/1
Brian Vickers 50/1
Carl Edwards 9/2
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Dave Blaney 10/1
David Gilliland 10/1
David Ragan 75/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Elliott Sadler 60/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 20/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Johnny Sauter 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 10/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Marcos Ambrose 200/1
Mark Martin 100/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Skinner 200/1
Patrick Carpentier 200/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 200/1
Robby Gordon 200/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 200/1
Terry Labonte 200/1
Tony Raines 200/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.