2024 SEC Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks
In the two decades that I’ve lived The South, it always baffled me that none of the frenzy and fervor that swirl around college football ever spilled over into SEC college basketball.
It is clear that college hoops will never arouse the same maniacal energy and tribal egoism from school fan bases that college football does. But the action on the hardwood can certainly match the gridiron in terms of intensity, talent and entertainment value.
The SEC Tournament will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. It starts on Wednesday, March 13, and will conclude Sunday afternoon. Tennessee enters as the top seed and favorite. But only one game separated the Vols from a quartet of hungry challengers for the top spot in the tournament.
And, like we’ll see in other major tournaments throughout the country this week, the SEC Tournament will also be injected with the desperation and anxiety of teams that are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives.
Here is Doc’s Sports 2024 SEC Tournament preview and predictions:
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The Favorite: Tennessee (+220)
The Volunteers’ loss to Kentucky in the season finale doesn’t dampen Tennessee’s domination of the SEC regular season. Leading scorer and future Top 10 pick Dalton Knecht is a legit go-to guy and sets the tone for this group. He is the only player that averages more than 12.1 points per game (21.4). Point guard Zakai Zeigler is a steady hand, and veterans Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James have played in, and won, a lot of big games. Zeigler, Vescovi and James were all starters on the teams that won the SEC tournament in 2022 and made the Sweet 16 in 2023. The Vols set the tone with defense. They are No. 3 in the country in field goal defense and can smother opponents on that end of the court. The lack of consistent scoring, outside of Knecht, is a weakness.
The Contender: Kentucky (+300)
Kentucky’s upset win in Knoxville Sunday helped vault them up to the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament. They aren’t the second-best team in this league, though. Kentucky has been erratic all season long. They have blown out teams like Auburn and Alabama but also lost at home to UNC-Wilmington and needed OT to get past St. Joseph’s. The Wildcats have five freshmen among their top seven players, including studs Rob Dillingham and D.J. Wagner. However, fifth-year senior Antonio Reeves is the main man and leading scorer at 20.2 points per game. The Wildcats haven’t won the tournament since 2018. I don’t know that this group has shown enough consistency to expect them to snap that streak.
The Sleeper: Auburn (+500)
The Tigers are No. 4 in the current KenPom ratings, No. 6 in the NET rankings and No. 13 in the RPI. They are a solid team. However, I think that this squad is overrated. They have exactly one win over a Top 40 team all season. One! They beat Alabama, at home, on Feb. 7. That’s it. That’s the extent of their big wins this season. They did nothing in the nonconference and by my count they have exactly three wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams (with none coming on the road). This is kind of a vintage Bruce Pearl team in that it is extremely talented on offense and are capable of massive runs. Forwards Johni Broome is one of the most impactful players in the country, averaging 16.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. I don’t know if their guards have enough high-end talent for this group to run the table.
The Spoiler: South Carolina (+700)
South Carolina was one of my sleeper teams in the SEC heading into the season and they haven’t disappointed. They are 22-9 against the spread this season and have been one of the best moneymakers in the country. The Gamecocks have won at home and on the road and boast a Top 40 scoring defense. The one-two punch of Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack handle the inside-out scoring and veteran Ta’Lon Cooper is a key factor. USC is a mediocre shooting team and rank No. 227 in the nation in scoring. So, if they aren’t knocking down shots their stay Nashville will be short.
Bubble Team To Watch: Mississippi State (+900)
Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs were riding a five-game winning streak and seemed like a lock for the NCAA Tournament field. Now they are on a four-game skid and could be playing themselves right out of The Dance. Six of Mississippi State’s top seven players are seniors, including leaders Tolu Smith and Shakeel Moore. This is it for this group. This is their last chance. They should be as motivated as any team in the field. And while they have lost four straight, one was a two-point loss to Kentucky, another a six-point loss at A&M, and the most recent an OT loss to South Carolina. They have to find a way to win a close game.
Potential Early Round Matchups To Watch:
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 5 South Carolina (2:30, Friday, March 13)
South Carolina will have its hands full with Arkansas in the second round and will need to win that game to set up this matchup. If so, this one should be a battle between two excellent defensive teams. They only met once during the regular season and it was a 101-61 bloodbath in Auburn. I wonder if South Carolina would play this game with a chip on its shoulder.
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Florida (8:30, Friday, March 13)
The Crimson Tide are one of the favorites to win this tournament and are another darling of the ratings and rankings systems. Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada make up one of the best backcourts in the nation. Alabama is the highest scoring team in the nation at 90.8 points per game and they have scored 98 or more 13 times, including in a 98-93 win over Florida in Tuscaloosa on Feb. 21. The Gators got revenge with a 105-87 win last Tuesday and the Gators are more than happy to get into a shootout. Florida is No. 7 in scoring at 84.9 PPG and they have proven themselves more than capable of knocking off the SEC’s top tier.
2021 SEC Conference Tournament Predictions: This is among the most wide-open conference tournament among the Big Six leagues. It wouldn’t surprise me if any one of five teams cut down the nets in Nashville. I think that Alabama and Tennessee will end up meeting in the finals, with the Crimson Tide shooting their way to a title and setting themselves up for a potential first round letdown loss in next week’s NCAA Tournament.
Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.
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