2024 SEC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2024

SEC football predictions Nico Iamaleava Tennessee Volunteers

The winner of the SEC will certainly have earned it. And there is no longer anywhere for teams in this league to hide.

Wait. Wait a second. Did I just suggest that over the past 10 years that maybe the SEC wasn’t the all-mighty, all-powerful conference that it pretends to be? Did I dare question the superiority of this league and its own self-referential hype?

Yes. Yes I did.

Look man, if two programs – Alabama and Georgia – have won nine of the last 10 conference championships, then maybe, just maybe, this league isn’t as great as everyone thinks it is.

I know about the elite talent that comes out of the SEC. And the marquee coaches. However, the reality is that the SEC has been a very top-heavy league for the entire last decade. And that outside of the two big dogs and LSU, there has been a whole lot of overrated mess in this league.

(And don’t even get me started about the number of National Championships the SEC has won the last 20 years. We have seen over and over and over and over again that The Powers That Be that choose the teams for the national title game and the playoffs have gotten it wrong repeatedly. And the SEC has been a beneficiary of its own hype more often than not, with the 2012 national title game being just one comical example.)

But no more. The SEC has finally absorbed enough good former Big 12 programs, including powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma, that there won’t be any soft paths to the league championship.

Want an example? Georgia has been a dominant force over the last two seasons, going 28-1 and winning the 2022 national title. However, during that stretch they have more wins over FCS and MAC opponents (four) than they do road wins over top 25 opponents (one). If the SEC was some juggernaut, then how did Georgia only play one ranked team in conference play in 2022 and just two Top 12 SEC teams in the last two regular seasons combined?

That’s no longer an issue, though, as the Bulldogs will take on three preseason Top 10 teams on the road this year. Alabama no longer gets to dodge real opponents in league play either (although their three biggest SEC games this year all come either after a bye week or an FCS opponent). And Texas, OU and Ole Miss will also have to run a gauntlet if they want a shot at the league title.

The SEC: more hype but also more competition. The way it should be.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Here is my 2024 SEC Conference preview and predictions:

The Favorite: Georgia (+150) - Georgia is a true football factory. They once again lost a slew of NFL draft picks – only to replace them with future NFL draft picks, be them transfers or members of their highly rated recruiting class. Georgia’s brand under Kirby Smart has been built on dominating offensive and defensive lines. And UGA should once again be able to physically manhandle most of their opponents. There really aren’t any nits to pick with a group that is 42-2 straight up the past two years, with two national titles, and are a ridiculous 62-6 over their last five seasons. Georgia has enjoyed two comically easy schedules the last two seasons, as they’ve played just one regular season game against a ranked team outside of Georgia. This year they have to go to Alabama, to Texas and to Ole Miss. I wouldn’t expect another undefeated regular season from this group. But Carson Beck gives the offense stability, most of the new starters have spent several years in the program, and there’s just too much talent for Georgia to not be a factor in the national title race.

The Contender: Texas (+350) - The only college football theme that’s been more played out over the last decade than the, “Is Miami BACK?” storyline is the, “Is Texas BACK?” subplot that gets discussed every preseason. Sure, Texas went 12-2 last season (while playing a more difficult schedule than UGA). However, that was only the second season of double-digit wins for the Longhorns in the past 10 years. Texas has 15 starters back from a group that outscored opponents by 17 points per game last year, and third-year quarterback Quinn Ewers is looking for a legacy-defining campaign. He will have to do it without last year’s leading rusher and his top five receivers, though. And defensively, the Longhorns lost a lot of bulky beasts along the line. Texas avoids LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri, and they get the crucial game with Georgia in Austin. I don’t expect much betting value with this team, though, and it is not as if Steve Sarkisian or the Longhorns haven’t flopped in the face of high expectations before.

The Dark Horse: Ole Miss (+800) - The Rebels lost at Alabama and at Georgia last year. That’s it. Two road games against two of the top teams in the country. That’s all they lost last fall – and they have 20 starters from that team back. Lane Kiffin had been a dud at most of his previous head coaching stops. However, there’s no denying that he has something cooking in Oxford. Ironically, Ole Miss is the type of high-scoring, all-offense-no-defense team that SEC obsessives have criticized in other leagues for decades. It’s working for the Rebels, though, with junior triggerman Jaxson Dart working behind an extremely experienced offensive line and throwing to a stable of weapons. Can the Rebels score enough (or get enough stops) to beat the inflated spreads they should face this year? And how will a team that is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games handle a midseason stretch that has them playing three of four away from home? Those answers will determine if Ole Miss can meet its playoff expectations.

The X-Factors: LSU (+1000) - Brian Kelly may be an egotistical asshat. But he’s not a guy that I’m in a hurry to bet against. And while LSU doesn’t have enough depth and experience to compete for an SEC title, they do have enough talent and athleticism to cause problems for some of the other hopefuls. LSU lost Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and hero wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. You don’t just replace those guys and keep on rolling. I don’t think this offense will be anywhere close to the group that rung up 45.5 points per game last year. The hope is that the defense, led by new coordinator Blake Baker, can improve enough to make up the difference. LSU hosts Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma this year and they face USC in Las Vegas in the season opener. They won’t win them all. They won’t lose them all. And this team will definitely be a factor in the SEC race.

Missouri (+2800) - Missouri exploded last year for an 11-2 season, capped with a 14-3 Cotton Bowl win over a (disinterested) Top 10 Ohio State team. They finished ranked in the Top 10 for just the third time in 50 years and start this season in the Top 10 for just the second time in a half-century. Can they live up to the hype? A cupcake schedule and the dynamite duo of Brady Cook and Luther Burden will keep this team relevant. They have two tough road trips at Texas A&M and at Alabama, and they host Oklahoma. This team should be favored in its other nine games, though, and it would only take two wins in those three marquee matchups to get this team into the playoffs.

The Disappointments: Alabama (+700) - It’s over. Nick Saban is one of the greatest coaches in college football history, and he’s gone. There is going to be a drop-off. I know the talent level on this roster is still high. And there is no denying that Kalen DeBoer, who has been a winner everywhere he has coached, knows what he’s doing. This team isn’t a juggernaut anymore, though, and I don’t consider this team a real national title threat for the first time in over a decade. The oddsmakers and the general betting public are still going to treat ‘Bama as ‘Bama. But they’re not. They are a team that lost its HOF coach, has new offensive and defensive systems, lost its top two rushers, three top receivers, and 12 of its top 19 defensive players. The arrow is pointing down from Alabama’s previous lofty heights.

Oklahoma (+3000) - Welcome to the SEC, Sooners. The Sooners are in Year 3 under Brent Venables. Defensively, this should be his best unit. But losing quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a big blow to the offense, and there is going to be a lot of pressure on new offensive coordinator Seth Litrell. Oklahoma also has a rugged SEC schedule, with trips to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU to go along with their rivalry matchup with Texas in Dallas and a home game against Alabama. Tricky early season home games against Tulane, Houston and Tennessee aren’t walk-overs, either. Frankly, the Sooners may have the most difficult schedule in the country. If this team goes 8-4, I think that would be a damn fine year. That’s not up to the standard in Norman, though, so this year will probably end up being a bit of a letdown for OU faithful.

The Undervalued: Kentucky (+10000) - Grinding out winning seasons and going to bowl games might not be sexy for some SEC programs. Yet there is no denying that Mark Stoops has done a phenomenal job at Kentucky. The Wildcats are always competitive and occasionally relevant in the top league in the country. No small feat. And with plenty of big-name programs invading the Southeast this year I expect Kentucky to get lost in the shuffle. Stoops has 18 returning starters, including 10 back on a defense that was disappointing last year and needs to improve. If UGA transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff can reach the lofty status that his recruiting pedigree suggests, then the Wildcats could finish above .500 ATS for the fourth straight year and fifth time in the last six seasons.

Auburn (+6000) - Hugh Freeze is not a pushover. This guy can coach, and he is going to have this Auburn team ready to hit and compete. They should’ve upset Georgia AND Alabama last year, and they threw a good scare into Ole Miss as well. Granted, all three of those games were at home, and their toughest games this season (UGA, Bama, Missouri) are on the road. Throw in tough tilts with Oklahoma and Texas A&M on the Plains, and Auburn will have to fight to match last year’s six wins. However, this team is going to spring at least one upset in one of those five games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if these guys turn into a solid ATS option in league play.

The Rest:

Tennessee (+1400) - Josh Heupel’s Volunteers have been in the Top 10 at some point in each of the past two seasons, including a two-month run as a sleeper national title contender in 2022. Will the Volunteers and their high-powered offense take a step back in the new, bloated SEC? Probably. A lot will be asked of redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava after his exceptional Citrus Bowl showing. The offense is going to be fine, though. If Tennessee is going to earn a spot in the league’s upper echelon, it will have to come from a massive improvement from a defense that lost its top six tacklers and eight of its last 10. The Vols will probably beat someone you don’t expect them to. But they aren’t deep enough or consistent enough to be a major player this year.

Texas A&M (+1500) - I really don’t know what to make of this team. Jimbo Fisher was a massive loser, and this team was a joke and a significant underachiever the last three years. I like Mike Elko, who is coming over from Duke. And by all accounts, there is still a lot of highly considered talent on this roster. The Aggies also lost a lot of guys to the transfer portal, and there is no telling how quickly the new coaching staff is going to be able to implement its systems. Throw in an absolutely brutal schedule that only has three guaranteed wins on it, and I really don’t know where the floor or the ceiling for this squad is. They are also just 8-17 ATS over the last two years, so is this a team to buy low or just stay away from?

Florida (+15000) - I’ll be shocked if this isn’t Billy Napier’s last year in Florida. His team should be better after a sloppy 5-7 campaign last year that ended with five straight losses. But the Gators have an unforgiving SEC schedule to go along with two nonconference games against Miami and Florida State (and a third in-state rivalry matchup against a better-than-you-think Central Florida squad). I have also never been a fan of quarterback Graham Mertz, and I don’t think he’ll be able to top last year’s ultra-efficient numbers. If Napier gets canned midseason, things could get UGLY down the stretch.

South Carolina (+10000) - Shane Beamer had his first losing season in three tries last year. The bloom isn’t completely off the rose. However, if Beamer has another sub-.500 showing this season, his seat is going to warm up quickly. Spencer Rattler and Xavier Legette, the two top players on a below-average offense, are gone. Dowell Logains was a failure as an NFL offensive coordinator, and my expectations aren’t that high for him to ignite this attack in Year 2. There are no easy schedules in the SEC. However, the Gamecocks have a decent setup and should be just two upsets away from a bowl bid.

Arkansas (+20000) - This is going to be a dangerous team, and I almost tabbed them as one of my undervalued. Right or wrong, Sam Pittman is coaching for his job. A guy with nothing to lose can cause a lot of problems for other people. Pittman has 16 starters back – although losing quarterback K.J. Jefferson is a blow – and this is a team that took five of its losses last year by a touchdown or less, including three-point losses at LSU and Alabama. The Razorbacks host a lot of SEC hopefuls and have a marquee nonconference test at Oklahoma State. I think this group is going to cause some problems.

Mississippi State (+50000) – It truly is tragic. Mike Leach was a weird old dude. But his death was a sad day for college football and really a hard blow to this school and program. New coach Jeff Lebby is here to pick up the pieces. He is the third coach in three seasons and is basically starting from scratch. It’s going to be a long season in Starkville.

Vanderbilt (+50000) – Yes, this is a thankless job. But Clark Lea isn’t doing much of anything with it. Vanderbilt should be moderately more competitive this season with 15 returning starters and a senior quarterback. But they are still awful. The good news is that after going 2-10 ATS last year, the books should overadjust their spreads to give this team a lot more points, creating some ugly dog value.

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2024 SEC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

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