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2024 Seattle Mariners Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/29/2024

Seattle Mariners predictions Matt Brash

Summary of Last Season

Last season was extremely disappointing for both the Seattle Mariners and their fans. Their playoff hopes would go down to the final game of the season before ultimately missing the chance for October by one game. They finished with an 88-74 record, which is four games worse than their expected record of 92-70. They were just 6-14 in games that exceeded nine innings of play. However, they did dominate their own division, going 33-19 against AL West opponents, which is vital to repeat in order for them to hold tiebreakers over Texas and Houston.

Julio Rodriguez headlines the offense for Seattle, as he led the lineup with a 5.3 WAR, while posting a .818 OPS and tallying 32 homeruns, 103 RBIs, 37 stolen bases, 180 hits, and 102 runs, which all led the team. Behind him there was plenty of production. Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez both recorded more than 90 RBIs and more than 20 homeruns, Cal Raleigh hit 30 homeruns, while Hernandez, Ty France, and J.P Crawford all recorded more than 140 hits. Overall, the offense ranked 12th in runs, 11th in homeruns, 16th in OPS, 13th in walks, and 13th in stolen bases.

The real strength of this team came from their deep pitching staff. Seattle had three arms record more than 190 innings this season, with multiple shut-down arms in the bullpen. Luis Castillo led the way for a deep rotation, as he posted a 3.34 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 219 strikeouts over 33 starts with a 14-9 record and 18 quality starts. Behind him, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby combined for 38 quality starts, a 26-17 record, a 3.54 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. The Mariners were also boosted by the emerging arms of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Out of the bullpen, Matt Brash and Justin Topa set the table for Andres Munoz and Paul Sewald. All four of those relievers had an ERA of 3.06 or less.

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Seattle Mariners Key Additions/Losses

The offense lost two of their three best producers from a season ago, as Teoscar Hernandez joined the Dodgers in free agency, while Eugenio Suarez was dealt to the Diamondbacks. The team also dealt Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, and Marco Gonzales to the Braves, Robbie Ray to the Giants, Jose Caballero to the Rays, and Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani to the Twins.

In an effort to maintain a competitive roster while dumping salary, the Mariners did a good job replacing their departed players. They added multiple bats such as Luis Urias, Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver. They also reinforced the bullpen by trading for Gregory Santos and signing Austin Voth.

Seattle Mariners Prospect Outlook

Though the rotation is loaded with young arms, there are a few pitching prospects who are on the 40-man roster. Emerson Hancock (5th) and Ty Adcock (21st) while Jimmy Joyce (26th) and Marcelo Perez (28th) are at big league camp.

As for the bats, outfielder Jonatan Clase (7th) is competing for a backup role on the big-league club, while catcher Blake Hunt (27th) is on the 40-man roster and will be ready and waiting in the event Mitch Garver or Cal Raleigh go down with an injury.

Seattle Mariners X-Factors

Pitching Rotation- The Mariners have the most underrated pitching rotations heading into the new campaign. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert will headline the roster, with Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo looking to settle in at the bottom of the rotation. Outside of Castillo, no starter is older than 26-years-old. If the top three can repeat or improve their numbers from a season ago, and Miller and Woo can be serviceable, this may be the best rotation in baseball.

3-7 in the lineup- J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez will be back as a dynamic one-two punch at the top of the order, but the big X-Factor is going to be how consistent the middle of the order will be. The rotation and shut down bullpen will take a lot of pressure off the lineup, but it is crucial this team can produce more than they did a season ago. Garver, Raley, and Raleigh should add plenty of pop to the lineup, but France and Polanco will need to be able to improve on their OBP from a season ago. If they do, this offense will flourish.

Seattle Mariners Expectations

Make the playoffs. The Mariners would love to win the division, but they are after a playoff berth this season after missing by just one game in 2023. The offense may have improved slightly, but the Mariners have more wiggle room for further acquisitions as the season progresses and they decide to go all in. The rotation is deep, and the bullpen will be anchored by Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. Missing the playoffs again is not an option for this team, and they should be right there with Texas and Houston.

Seattle Mariners Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +2000

Pennant Winners- +1000

Division Winners- +300

AL MVP- Julio Rodriguez- +1100

AL CY Young- Luis Castillo- +1200

AL CY Young- George Kirby- +1500

Seattle Mariners Prediction

The over 86.5 wins on the season is as close to a sure thing as they come and one of my favorite bets for the offseason. They did not regress at all and should have no issue getting their win total in the 90’s this season. I think the Mariners will add another bat this summer and boost their roster any way they can to make a deep run in the playoffs this season.

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