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2024 San Francisco Giants Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/27/2024

San Francisco Giants predictions Logan Webb

Summary of Last Season

The San Francisco Giants put together a very underwhelming season last year. They finished four games under .500 with a 79-83 record. They finished 25 games behind the Braves and five games behind the Diamondbacks for the last wild card spot. They did perform better than their expected record of 76-86, as they went 25-19 in one-run games.

Lamonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores led the Giants offense, as each player had a 2.6 WAR.  Thairo Estrada and Mike Yastrzemski were right on their heels with a 2.4 and 2.3 WAR, respectively. Wilmer Flores led the Giants with 23 homeruns, while no other player exceeded the 20-homer mark. J.D. Davis led the team with 69 RBIs, and Flores’ 60 RBIs was the second best. Estrada stole a team-leading 23 bases and was the only Giants player to steal more than five bases. As a team, the Giants ranked 24th in runs, 19th in homeruns, 30th in stolen bases, and 26th in OPS.

San Francisco’s ace, Logan Webb, was once again brilliant last season. He had a team-leading 5.6 WAR with 24 quality starts across 216 innings and posted a 3.24 ERA. Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to record more than 100 innings of work. Cobb was second in the rotation in ERA with a 3.87 mark, while the other starters averaged over a 4.50 ERA. The bullpen was a strength for this club, with Camilo Doval recording 39 saves and finishing with a 2.93 ERA. The Rogers brothers, Taylor and Tyler, combined for 42 holds, a 3.44 ERA, and a 9.2 K/9 ratio across 125.2 innings. The pitching staff ranked 11th in the MLB in ERA and WHIP last season.

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San Francisco Giants Key Additions/Losses

Upon the season’s end, the Giants lost Scott Alexander, Brandon Crawford, Roberto Perez, Joc Pederson, Jakob Junis, John Brebbia, and Alex Wood to free agency, while Sean Manaea opted out. The club would also send Ross Stripling to Oakland. However, the Giants won one of the top international prospects in Jung Hoo Lee, signing the outfielder to a six-year deal. They also signed Tom Murphy to a two-year deal and added Yoshi Tsutsugo to a minor league deal. They Giants offseason was highlighted by signing Matt Chapman to a three-year deal, Blake Snell to a two-year deal, and Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal. The Giants would also acquire Robbie Ray from Seattle in a deal that sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to the Mariners.

San Francisco Giants Prospect Outlook

The Giants top two prospects are expected to have an immediate impact at the big-league level this season. Kyle Harrison (1st) is expected to be slotted in as the fourth starting pitcher, while Marco Luciano (2nd) is projected to be the club’s everyday shortstop. Pitcher Keaton Winn (13th) and utilityman Tyler Fitzgerald (21st) are also going to open up the season on the Giants roster but will have less prominent roles than Harrison and Luciano. Pitcher Carson Whisenhunt (3rd) is another name to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The top prospect is MLB ready but could be a big name used as trade bait.

San Francisco Giants X-Factors

The Rookie Duo- Harrison and Luciano will get the chance to have regular playing time and prove that they are ready to compete. Harrison posted a 4.15 ERA across seven starts last season but had a promising 9.1 K/9 ratio. Luciano appeared in 13 games and slashed .231/.333/.308 across 39 ABs and had a 0.1 WAR. Both players struggled in their limited time. However, after strong springs, they look ready to improve on those numbers in the new campaign.

The Star Additions- Both Blake Snell and Matt Chapman agreed to play in the Bay in a matter of weeks, which is huge for a team that is in the same division as the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks, who all got better. Both stars will need to be on their A-game all season if they want to put the Giants in a playoff position.

San Francisco Giants Expectations

See how it shakes out until July. There have been previous wonderings of a rebuild out in San Francisco, but those thoughts were put to bed after the club’s busy offseason. Snell and Chapman both have interesting contracts that give the players flexibility, but also the Giants if they decide to sell. If the Giants are 10 games out of a wild card spot in late June, then expect the team to sell and get top prospects. However, if they are within five games, the Giants have the farm system to buy some more significant production.

San Francisco Giants Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +4500

Pennant Winners- +2000

Division Winners- +1200

NL MVP- Matt Chapman- +12000

NL Cy Young- Logan Webb- +1500

San Francisco Giants Predictions

The win total sits at 83.5 for the Giants. I like the over thanks to the addition of the two stars, but there is a lot of variances with this team. I could see them winning 90 games. However, if they sell after a sluggish start, then they could fail to reach 80. Logan Webb is always going to be in the thick of things in the Cy Young race, and now the Giants have two Cy Young-caliber arms with the addition of Snell. For now, I am going to favor the over on the win total, but the Giants will fall behind the Dodgers once again in the division race and will be in a dog fight for the wild card.

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