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2024 San Diego Padres Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/19/2024

San Diego Padres predictions Yu Darvish

Summary of Last Season

The Padres turned in one of the most disappointing seasons across the board last season. Their expected record was 93-69, but San Diego managed to go just 82-80. They missed the playoffs by two games and limped to a winning record. The Padres went just 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra inning games.

Ha-Seong Kim led the team in WAR last season, and the lineup featured five players who would post a WAR of five or better. Kim’s 5.8 WAR was followed by Juan Soto’s 5.6 and Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 5.5 marks. Kim led the team with 38 stolen bases while also hitting 17 homeruns. Soto and Manny Machado were the two Padres who hit 30 or more homeruns and the only two players who tallied more than 80 RBIs. Xander Bogaerts also had a nice season, finishing with a 4.4 WAR while hitting 19 homeruns and stealing 19 stolen bases. The Padres finished the season ranked 13th in runs, OPS, and homeruns, while finishing ninth in stolen bases.

As for the pitching, the Padres were one of a handful of teams who had five pitchers record more than 100 innings. NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell led the group with a 6.0 WAR and a 14-9 record across 180 innings of work. He posted 20 quality starts and an ERA of just 2.25. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez all recorded over 100 innings and posted ERAs of 3.57 or less. Joe Musgrove, despite the injuries, managed to record 97.1 innings of work and recorded 11 quality starts out of 17, and posted a 3.05 ERA. Josh Hader found dominance once again out of the bullpen with 33 saves and a 1.28 ERA. San Diego ranked second in the MLB in ERA, 13th in WHIP, and were tied second in shutouts.

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San Diego Padres Key Additions/Losses

After a disappointing season, the Padres faced a lot of departures in the offseason. The pitching staff got a lot weaker as Blake Snell, Rich Hill, Seth Lugo, Luis Garcia, Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Drew Pomeranz became free agents. Gary Sanchez, Ji Man Choi, and Garrett Cooper also hit the free agent market. The Padres offseason was highlighted by Juan Soto’s trade to the Yankees. Trent Grisham accompanied him to the Bronx, while the Padres also moved Matt Carpenter and Ryan Kerr in a trade with the Braves.

The return for Soto was nice, as they acquired Kyle Higashioka, Michael King, and three prospects, including top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. The Padres also signed relievers Woo-Suk Go and Wandy Peralta to reinforce their bullpen. Drew Thorpe, Steven Wilson, and two other prospects were sent to Chicago for Dylan Cease.

San Diego Padres Prospect Outlook

There was some recent big news out of the Padres camp that second overall prospect, Jackson Merrill, is now slated to be San Diego’s starting center fielder. However, after trading for Dylan Cease, there is little in the farm system in the immediate future. Outside of Merrill, pitchers Randy Vasquez (12th) and Stephen Kolek (21st), along with newly signed Woo-Suk Go, are expected to be young arms joining the pitching staff, while Eguy Rosario (13th) may get the nod at third.

San Diego Padres X-Factors

The Rotation- The Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks have all made significant moves to better their starting five. The Padres swung for the fences with the Dylan Cease trade, but there is a lot of question marks surrounding the pitching staff’s ability to compete. Yu Darvish is getting older, Joe Musgrove has had health issues, Michael King has been a polished starter for only three quarters of a season, and Dylan Cease is coming off a below average year. All four have seemingly high ceilings, but there is a lot of question marks.

Offensive Depth- The top five in the lineup are going to put up some numbers, but teams like the Dodgers and Braves offer little to no breaks in their lineup. If the Padres are wanting to make a run at a title, they may need to bolster the lineup with a midseason acquisition or hope that Merrill can provide a huge boost.

San Diego Padres Expectations

After going all in, management and fans alike are hoping for a World Series run. They saw their big brother (Dodgers) go all in, which forced the Padres to extend their competition window by adding Cease and the two international bullpen arms in Go and Yuki Matsui. The Padres are likely to perform better than their “luck” last season and should be a near 90-win team and secure a wild card.

San Diego Padres Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +4800

Pennant Winners- +2300

Division Winners- +1100

NL MVP- Fernando Tatis Jr.- +1000

NL MVP- Manny Machado- +2500

NL Cy Young- Dylan Cease- +2500

NL Cy Young- Yu Darvish- +4000

NL Manager of the Year- Mike Shildt- +900

San Diego Padres Predictions

The Padres win total sits at 83.5 even after the Cease deal. I believe this team is going to be one of the better rated wild card teams, and their win total should sit around 90 games. Mike Shildt for Manager of the Year is another favorite pick due to their ability to make a big jump on their win total from a season ago. Go and Matsui should strengthen the bullpen, and we all know what the top of their order is capable of.

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