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2024-25 San Antonio Spurs Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/14/2024

San Antonio Spurs predictions Victor Wembanyama

The San Antonio Spurs hit the jackpot after drafting Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA draft. Wembanyama won Rookie of the Year last season and has the Spurs fans suddenly hopeful about their franchise once again. Can the Spurs play meaningful basketball as the season winds down, or will they need another rebuilding season before challenging for a playoff spot?

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San Antonio Spurs Offseason Recap

The Spurs picked up one of the best leaders in the NBA in the offseason, as Chris Paul will help guide this young roster in their formative years. Paul will play in his 20th NBA season with his 7th different team this year. His ability to provide leadership both on and off the court will be incredibly valuable to the Spurs franchise. Paul keeps his head up when dribbling and is one of the craftiest point guards in the league. His lobs with Wembanyama will dominate highlight reels all season long. Paul is in the twilight of his career. However, for a team like San Antonio, he is the perfect addition at this stage of the rebuild. 

The Spurs also picked up Harrison Barnes in the offseason thanks to their available cap space. They were the third team in the DeMar DeRozan trade with the Bulls and Kings. Barnes' contract needed to be offloaded somewhere, and the Spurs got a fantastic role player out of the swap. Barnes has scored 10+ PPG in 10 straight seasons and will help the Spurs win games this season. 

In the draft, San Antonio selected Stephon Castle with the fourth overall pick. Castle is a versatile player capable of playing multiple positions on the court. For an incoming rookie to give the Spurs coaching staff that luxury is a massive plus, and he will see heavy minutes in this rebuilding team. His ability to finish in the lane is his best asset, as he plays a lot stronger than his 6-foot-6, 210 frame would suggest. 

San Antonio Spurs Season Expectations

There was a lot of buzz surrounding Wembanyama and the Spurs last season, but the reality is they matched their 22-60 record they secured without Wembanyama. There is no doubt Wembanyama makes this team better, and their offseason moves appear to be the right ones. Paul will provide Wembanyama with stability at the point and will not hesitate to feed the big man inside when he is isolated. 

It would certainly be nice for the Spurs to win games this year, but it is not the central priority. San Antonio is still well off making waves in the postseason, so developing their roster remains the central focus. Wembanyama could be the next generational talent in the NBA, but the Spurs need to develop the rest of their lineup, too. After Wembanyama not only won Rookie of the Year, but also came second in DPOY voting, it would be easy to put all their eggs in one basket. 

Devin Vassell has been a key piece of the Spurs rebuild and was rewarded with a boatload of minutes last season. His 19.5 PPG on 47.2% from the floor last season were both career highs in his four seasons with San Antonio. Vassell will see his role change slightly with the arrival of Chris Paul, but he will still continue his ascension into a reliable NBA star. 

San Antonio Spurs Schedule Breakdown

The Spurs start off the season with five of their first eight games away from home, including trips to Dallas, Oklahoma City, Houston, and Los Angeles. They are then rewarded with a lengthy home stand, as 14 of their next 18 games are played at home. The Spurs have several lengthy trips and long home stands on their schedule. As a result, they may have a very streaky season, which could hurt their play-in tournament chances. 

San Antonio Spurs Odds

The Spurs have a 36.5 win total this year, which signifies a massive bump compared to recent years. They haven’t surpassed this total since 2017 and posted back-to-back 22-60 seasons in 22-23 and 23-24. The Spurs have a legitimate chance to play meaningful basketball in April for the first time in half a decade. They are +400 to make the playoffs and +300 to participate in the play-in tournament. The play-in tournament price offers much more value, as it is highly unlikely the Spurs will make the playoffs via a top 6 seed rather than via the play-in tournament. 

In the NBA Cup, the Spurs are in West Group B with the Thunder, Lakers, Suns, and Jazz. They are +1200 to finish on top and could pull off the upset. They have the privilege of hosting the Thunder and Lakers in the opening two games. If they can defend home court, they will put themselves in a fantastic position to advance into the knockout stages. However, their +8000 odds to win the NBA Cup may be too big of a stretch. 

2024-25 San Antonio Spurs Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Spurs are in an interesting position as a franchise. Their tanking has resulted in Victor Wembanyama joining the roster, but they still don’t quite have enough pieces to make a legitimate playoff run. Their 36.5 win total feels a little bit speculative, but there is a fantastic longshot prop for the Spurs. Their +400 odds to make the playoffs aren’t worth a wager, but the +300 to participate in the play-in tournament could yield a nice return. 

I expect the Spurs to finish with a 37-45 record, right in line with their win total. While there isn’t much value on either side of the line, the play-in tournament prop is the way to go rather than the over. The Spurs will probably need 36-40 wins to make the play-in tournament, which is well within their aspirations this season. You won’t find a better +300 prop in the entire NBA, making this one of the best preseason wagers to make. 

Pick: San Antonio Spurs Over 36.5 Wins

Top Pick: San Antonio Spurs to Participate in the Play-In Tournament +300

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