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2023 Risen Star Stakes Predictions: Top Five Contenders

by Dave Schwab - 2/15/2023

Risen Star Stakes predictions Florent Geroux

The Kentucky Derby Trail moves on to Fair Grounds Race Course this Saturday with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes. The stakes race is open to three-year thoroughbreds, and the prize purse is $400,000.

Here are my top five horses in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, along with the morning line odds and my percentage to win.

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Victory Formation (3-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat, he is positioned at the No. 13 gate for this race. Victory Formation won his three-year old debut on Jan. 1 in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He completed the one mile on dirt in 1:38.14 over Angel of Empire and Denington.

Victory Formation also won at Keeneland in the 6 ½-furlong sprint and Churchill Down in a six-furlong sprint as a two-year old. Sired by Tapwrit, he was bred to go over a mile on dirt as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Odds of Winning: 45%

Tapit’s Conquest (6-1)

This Kentucky-bred colt raced for LaPenta, Robert V., e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Madaket Stables. Also trained by Brad Cox, he will start at the No. 8 gate with jockey Florent Geroux. After taking second in a seven-furlong sprint at Saratoga, Tapit’s Conquest closed out his juvenile campaign with a victory in 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Churchill Downs.

As a three-year thoroughbred, he finished second at Fair Grounds in a 1 1/16-miles Allowance race on Jan. 21. Tapit’s Conquest does have the speed and power to compete with Victory Formation to win this race.

Odds of Winning: 35%

Curly Jack (8-1)

As one of the legitimate contenders trained by Thomas Amoss, Curly Jack should place in the money in this race. Sired by Good Magic, he has finished first or second place in four of six races as a two-year old. He is making his three-year old debut in the Risen Star at Fair Ground after racing at Churchill Downs, Saratoga and Keeneland in his juvenile campaign.

Placing second at Churchill Downs in the 2022 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 26, Curly Jack has the stamina to keep up with the favorite in the Risen Star.

Odds of Winning: 10%

Angel of Empire (8-1)

Also a third-favorite at 8-1 odds, Angel of Empire is positioned at the No. 6 gate with Luis Saez as his jockey. He is trained by Brad Cox and raced for Albaugh Family Stables LLC. Bred in Pennsylvania, he finished first or second in three out of four events in his racing career. Angel of Empire made his three-year debut in a second-place finish at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

Odds of Winning: 5%

Silver Heist (12-1)

This Kentucky-bred colt finished third in his three-year old debut in a 1 1/16-mile Allowance race on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds. He started off at this track as a two-year old with a victory in a six-furlong sprint on Dec. 26. Silver Heist is trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Cory Lanerie out of the No. 11 gate in this race. He is priced right as a 12-1 longshot in this field.

Odds of Winning: 5%

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