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2024-25 Purdue Boilermakers Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/24/2024

Purdue Boilermakers basketball predictions Braden Smith

Last season was one for the ages for Boilermakers fans. Purdue went 28-3 during the regular season last year and posted a 17-3 conference record. All three of their regular season losses were on the road. They dominated a tough nonconference schedule that included #11 Gonzaga, #7 Tennessee, #4 Marquette, #1 Arizona, and Alabama. Overall, Purdue was 10-1 against ranked opponent’s last season. Despite the dominant regular season, the Boilermakers failed to win the Big Ten Tournament, as they fell to Wisconsin in the semifinals. Despite the early conference loss, Purdue still had claim to a 1-Seed in the Big Dance. Once March Madness began, the Boilermakers were back to their dominating ways. They won their first-round matchup against 16-Seed by 28, their second-round matchup against 8-Seed Utah State by 39, and their Sweet 16 matchup against 5-Seed Gonzaga by 12. Following up three straight double-digit wins in tournament play, Purdue would go on to beat 2-Seed Tennessee in the Elite 8 and darling 11-Seed North Carolina State in the Final Four, setting up a date with fellow 1-Seed UConn. Unfortunately, the Huskies put an end to the Purdue magic as they beat the Boilermakers by 15 in the championship game.

As a team, Purdue averaged 82.3 PPG, which ranked 15th in the nation and third in the Big Ten. They were one of two teams who shot better than 40% as a team from deep and were in the Top 10 in rebounding. Most of the success can be contributed to Zach Edey. Edey led the country with 25.2 PPG while ranking second with 12.2 RPG, while also ranking in the Top 10 in FG% with a 62.3% mark. Behind Edey, Purdue had a reliable trio of guards. Braden Smith was second on the team in scoring, averaging 12 PPG, and rebounds, averaging 5.8 RPG, while also leading the way with 7.5 APG. Lance Jones averaged 11.7 PPG while Fletcher Lower rounded out the trio, averaging 10.3 PPG.  

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Purdue Boilermakers Basketball Key Additions/Losses

The Edey Era is over as he has moved onto the NBA, leaving a huge hole in the Purdue roster. Losing the reigning best player in the country is tough and Purdue did not respond well. The team also lost key role player in forward Mason Gillis, who was one of their best free-throw shooters (86%) and three-point shooters (46.8%). Gillis transferred to Duke, while guard Ethan Morton (10 MPG) transferred to Colorado State. Jones is also not returning after running out of eligibility.

After losing three significant pieces to last year’s runners-up squad, Purdue was complacent and did not seriously pursue any big-time talent via the transfer portal. Though they were not active in the transfer portal, the Boilermakers brought in five high school recruits. They signed 7-foot-3 center Daniel Jacobsen, who is a four-star prospect that ranked 57th nationally and was the 13th ranked center in the class. Joining him is fellow four-star Gicarri Harris (74th nationally). The recruiting class is rounded out by three three-star prospects, center Raleigh Burgess and guards C.J. Cox and Jack Benter.

Purdue Boilermakers Basketball X-Factors

The Nonconference Schedule- The Boilermakers are a huge question mark heading into the new season and may be rated a bit too high after all the production they lost from last year’s team. Well, it won’t take long to see the potential of this Purdue squad as they have one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country. They have three tune-up games against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Northern Kentucky, and Yale before facing #2 Alabama and #18 Marquette in back-to-back games. Not even a month after that, they will take on #13 Texas A&M and #11 Auburn in back-to-back games. These four games, three of which are on the road, will be a good indicator of how well this team will perform against the tougher competition this season.

Purdue Boilermakers Basketball Notable Games

Home- #2 Alabama, #17 Indiana, #22 UCLA, #25 Rutgers

Away/Neutral- #18 Marquette, #13 Texas A&M, #11 Auburn, #25 Rutgers, #17 Indiana

Purdue Boilermakers Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +4000

Final Four: +950

Conference Winner: +400

Wooden Award: Braden Smith- +4000

Wooden Award: Trey Kaufman-Renn- +22000

AP Top 25- 14th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 10th

KenPom- 10th

Purdue Boilermakers Basketball Predictions

Purdue is the most overrated team in the country this season. They did nothing to replace their departed production. And even with the Big Ten being down this year, I do not see how they will compete with the conference’s top teams like Rutgers, UCLA, and Indiana. I would fade the Boilermakers and put more stock in the values surrounding the aforementioned Big Ten teams. Purdue is being overvalued and may be this high solely because of their successes last season. Don’t be fooled and certainly don’t be surprised if Purdue finishes the season outside of the AP Top 25.

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