Publisher Odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/28/2025

With Journalism and Publisher entered, the 151st Kentucky Derby might be the "Year of the Writer." If Publisher becomes the first horse since Brokers Tip in 1933 to break his maiden in the "Run for the Roses," you can guarantee it. Despite not yet securing a victory, Publisher arrives at Churchill Downs with solid credentials. Still, as history has shown, overcoming his maiden status will be a formidable challenge. Since 2000, only three maidens have competed in the Derby, none finishing higher than 13th, making it a steep task for Publisher to outshine the field. However, if he could pull off the upset, it would be one of the greatest underdog stories written in horse racing history.

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Breeding: Equiline doesn't think much of Publisher's lineage as they gave the colt a poor rating of D. He is, however, one of the three horses who are the offspring of a Triple Crown winner, sired by American Pharoah out of the Proud Citizen-bred Indian Pride. American Pharoah, of course, was the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years when he swept the racing world by storm in 2015. He also won the 2015 Haskell Stakes and the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic, both Grade 1 stakes. He has sired over 900 horses who have raced, and 42% of them have gone on to win, with career earnings of over $78 million. The broodmare Indian Pride had a short but successful racing career, winning three of her four races and finishing third in the 2019 Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland. Her sire, Proud Citizen, won the 2002 Lexington (G2). He followed that up by placing second in the 2002 Kentucky Derby (G1) and another ITM finish of third place in the 2002 Preakness (G1).

Trainer: Steve Asmussen, North America's top-earning trainer in 2025 with over $9 million, continues his quest for an elusive Kentucky Derby victory, standing at 0-for-26 across 18 attempts. He nearly triumphed in 2022 when Epicenter, the favorite, was overtaken late by Rich Strike, and in 2017, Lookin at Lee finished second. This year, Asmussen fields Publisher and Tiztastic, who is ranked fifth on the leaderboard after capturing the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, as he aims to claim the "Run for the Roses finally.

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr., a 32-year-old jockey leading North America in 2025 with over $9 million in earnings, a 21% win rate, and a 56% in-the-money (ITM) rate, is aptly partnered with trainer Steve Asmussen in their pursuit of an elusive first Kentucky Derby victory, yet to capture the prestigious "Run for the Roses" across eight prior rides. His best Derby result was fourth aboard Improbable in 2019, and notably, none of his mounts have reached the top three on the first Saturday in May. With Ortiz's exceptional talent and illustrious career, a Derby triumph feels inevitable. Still, he'll need to harness his unparalleled skill on his first ride aboard the maiden runner Publisher to break through and join Asmussen in securing their inaugural Kentucky Derby win on May 3.

Prior experience: Despite never reaching the winner's circle, Publisher's qualification for the Kentucky Derby as a maiden is a testament to his talent, having finished out of the money twice in seven starts since his debut on August 12. He began with three third-place finishes, then secured a second in an Open Maiden Special Weight race at Oaklawn Park on a muddy track just before the new year. His stakes debut in the 2025 Southwest Stakes (G3) yielded a misleadingly modest sixth, followed by a deceptively strong fourth in the 2025 Rebel Stakes (G2). In the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, sent off as the fourth choice at 7.6-1, Publisher broke slowly and settled near the rear, a savvy position as Cornucopian and Speed King burned out with a torrid early pace. Shadowing winner Sandman's charge around the far turn, he overtook the faltering leaders but couldn't reel in Sandman, finishing a resolute second, 4.5 lengths clear of third-place finisher and fellow Derby contender Coal Battle.

Odds, Analysis, and Predictions: The red flags raised by Publisher's winless record are lowered a bit by his impressive qualification for the Kentucky Derby as a maiden. His closing style suits the projected fast pace of the 151st "Run for the Roses," though rallying from near-last against formidable closers like Sandman, who has beaten him in their last three encounters, poses a steep challenge. He gains an edge with Irad Ortiz Jr., North America's top jockey, riding him for the first time. His training form impresses, outpacing Asmussen's favored Tiztastic in a recent workout, but the 90-year streak of no maiden winning the Derby looms large. I would love to see a Sunday headline that read "Publisher Pens Historic Victory." However, a third or fourth-place finish would likely be the positive chapter written.

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Start:	April 28, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
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