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2024 Preakness Stakes Pace Scenario: Expert Analysis and Predictions

by Joey House - 5/14/2024

Preakness Stakes pace scenario Mystik Dan

We may be watching the horse racing version of "Rocky" this weekend at the 2024 Preakness Stakes (G1). When trainer Kenny McPeek announced that Mystik Dan, the winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), would run in the second leg of the Triple Crown, it set up a rematch with Muth, who beat Mystik Dan in the 2024 Arkansas Derby (G1). As we all know, Rocky lost his first fight with Apollo Creed but came back to defeat the heavyweight champion in "Rocky II". All eyes will be on the Pimlico Race Track to see if horse racing life will imitate art on Saturday evening.

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Post Positions

The post positions were drawn Monday evening and revealed that the two heavyweights will be side by side in the gate, with Muth (8-5) drawing the 4-post and Mystik Dan (5-2) the 5-post. The first two posts were drawn by two 20-1 long shots who appear to not be much of a factor, Mugatu and Uncle Heavy. The 3-post went to Catching Freedom (6-1), who finished 4th in the "Run for the Roses" two weeks ago. The 6th and 7th posts go to D. Wayne Lukas's stablemates Seize the Grey (15-1) and Just Steel (15-1). Tuscan Gold (8-1) is in the 8th and the final horse, Imagination (6-1), drew the far outside 9-post.

Styles of Racing

When analyzing a horse race according to pace, it is helpful to break down the horses into four different categories. Pacesetters grab the early lead and run from out front. Stalkers stay close to the leaders, saving ground and energy for a burst at the end. Midpack runners, the most versatile of the four, adjust their pace to stay close to the stalkers and make their push a bit earlier. The fourth and final style is that of a deep closer. This year's Preakness will be without this exciting style.

Pacesetters

The slightly tarnished Bob Baffert trains both Muth and Imagination, and they appear to be the only two speed horses. Knowing that the two pace setters come from the same barn is important, because it is unlikely that they will engage in a potentially devastating speed duel that cost Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby. One of the two stable mates will grab the lead while the other tucks into a stalking position.

Stalkers

There are three primary stalkers in this field. Mystik Dan will let Muth grab the early lead and should be able to pass the slower movers inside of him and save ground along the rail. Just Steel and Tuscan Gold most likely will tag along when Imagination moves toward the front.

Mid-pack runners

The first three inside horses, Mugatu, Uncle Heavy, and Catching Freedom, are all considered mid-pack runners. They will most likely watch Muth and Mystik Dan fly right by them, as they attempt to conserve their energy and stay within shouting distance of the stalkers. Seize the Grey will most likely run a similar race, cutting in from the outside as Imagination bolts to the front. These guys appear to be in trouble because of the lack of overall speed in the race.

Pace Scenario

The forecast for Saturday in Baltimore, Maryland (home of Pimlico Race Course) is for a 50% chance of showers and a high temperature of around 78. With the forecast for the rest of the week best described as "unsettled", it would be wise to have a contingency plan in place should there be an off-track. The following scenario is based on the inclement weather NOT adversely affecting the track.

When the gates open, Muth bolts to the front and establishes an early lead. Mystik Dan is joined by Imagination as they attempt to stay close to the front-running Muth. Just Steel and Tuscan Gold tuck in nicely in the first turn and are comfortably a few lengths behind.

This is both the dream for Muth and the nightmare for Mystik Dan. Without another horse to adequately press for the lead, Muth should be able to conserve enough speed and energy to finish in a dominating fashion. The one horse that could challenge him early, Imagination, won't because of the stable connection.

Brian Hernandez, the rider onboard Mystik Dan, will be forced to make the decision: Press the lead or lay back? If he presses Muth, he lets himself open to a late charge by one of the stalkers. If he lays back, he allows Muth to dictate the pace, which will most likely result in an easy victory for Juan J. Hernandez (no relation to Brian) and Muth.

According to Equibase's GPS tracking, Mystik Dan ran the shortest race, in terms of feet, of the entire Kentucky Derby field. Unfortunately, with the speed merchant Muth on the inside of him, Mystik Dan won't have that luxury on Saturday. I think he'll be forced to challenge Muth earlier than he would like. This should open the door to either Imagination or Just Steel.

With an early line of 15-1, I like No. 7 Just Steel's chances. He has an impeccable pedigree (son of the 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify), good starting position (the 7-post is tied with the 4-post for second with 14 winners starting there. Only the 6-post has more with 16 victories), and trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a proven winner at the Preakness, with six victories. Saturday will also be a rematch between Just Steel and Muth from the Arkansas Derby, where Muth finished two lengths ahead of Just Steel. A disappointing 17th-place finish in the Derby has greatly lowered his odds. I see him running a race closer to the Arkansas Derby and hope with the slight addition of distance (the Preakness is 1/16 of a mile longer than the Arkansas Derby), Just Steel can pull off the upset.

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