Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends with Expert Wagering Analysis

by Spencer Toth - 5/16/2024

Preakness Stakes betting trends

The 2024 Preakness Stakes race goes down on Saturday May 18, and there are several betting trends that cannot be ignored. There are several contenders looking to etch their names in the history books. And by examining these trends, you can give yourself the best chance at staying in the green this weekend.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Stamina Doesn’t Matter:

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, which is the longest race most three-year-old horses will run, the Preakness Stakes is more of a sprint. Five of the last 15 winners were in the top 3 after the first half mile, with a further 9 of the last 15 coming in the top 3 after that threshold. Getting off to a strong start is crucial in this race. Stamina plays a factor, but out-of-the-gate speed combined with straight-line speed have been much better factors at determining the outright winner. However, with rain on the forecast for Saturday evening, the track will be sloppy, allowing a potential comeback to take place. The last big comeback is when Exaggerator won in 2016, after trailing by a mammoth 6.5 lengths at the half mile mark. Just like the expected track conditions on Saturday, that was an extremely sloppy race, allowing time for a comeback. The straight-line specialists will be favored at this event, but it could be time to buck this trend and look to a horse with strong stamina. As the competitors grind through the sloppy conditions, fatigue will become a much bigger factor than usual at this event.

Preakness Stakes Longshots have been Reliable:
The Preakness Stakes have seen several medium-longshots take home the victory. Five of the last 6 winners have come in with 6/1 or longer odds, including four straight years. While anything can happen with these sloppy conditions, it isn’t time to take the longest underdog available. The winning horses have been consistently in the 6/1 to 13/1 range in recent years, allowing for a big payout, but a reasonable chance to win. In this year’s race, Catching Freedom (6/1), Imagination (6/1), and Tuscan Gold (8/1) all fit the bill. Additionally, the race only features 8 horses after betting favorite Muth was forced to withdraw due to fever. This will allow the medium underdogs a real shot at taking home the crown, and will need special consideration before placing a bet.

Avoid Kentucky Derby Winners:
It may seem intuitive to automatically tail the horse coming off a Kentucky Derby win, with this year being Mystic Dan. However, not only could the horses suffer from fatigue, but their prices are consistently overvalued. Mystic Dan is a strong horse with a reliable trainer/jockey partnership, but the 5/2 odds available do not offer enough upside to warrant a wager. The public will be all over Mystic Dan after his thrilling victory. And if he were at the 15/1 odds he won the Derby with, it would be worth a look. That is not the case, making it a less than lucrative bet to tail Mystic Dan at this year’s race.

Bob Baffert is a Reliable Money Maker:

Trainer Bob Baffert has been extremely consistent at this specific event, as one of his horses has won 8 races since 1997. Last year, he trained National Treasure to a big victory and will be looking to make back-to-back Preakness Stakes wins this year. Muth, who was the biggest favorite, was forced to withdraw, but Baffert still has Imagination running in the race. Imagination is 6/1 to win and is certainly worth a look considering Baffert’s exceptional Preakness Stakes record.

Avoid the Big Favorites:

Everyone loves to see their horse get the victory, making the favorites an attractive betting option. While the Preakness Stakes often results in fewer upsets than other races, the favorites have still been consistently overpriced. In fact, there have been more double-digit longshot wins than outright favorite victories over the last two decades. The payouts are obviously way longer. And if you can correctly select which underdog will be this year’s winner, the reward is much larger than a 5/2 bet on favorite Mystic Dan.

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Preakness Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers