Pocono 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 06/05/2008
Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch and the No. 18 car continued their dominance in NASCAR at the Best Buy 400 last weekend as he won for the third time in five races, took his fourth checkered flag on the season, and increased his lead in the Sprint Cup standings over Jeff Burton to 142 points going into the Pocono 500 on Sunday June 8 at 2:30 p.m.
If you are planning on attending this year's Pocono 500 bring your autograph book. Pocono sports one of the best venues for getting autographs along pit-row. Those braving gas prices and bringing their land yachts for some infield docking should keep in mind that once you are there on the infield you can't leave so bring everything you need with you for the entire weekend-because you won't find a supply store on the infield.
Who will win the Pocono 500?
The 2.5-mile tri-oval located on Long Pond Road is known as the "tricky triangle." Jeff Gordon won last year's Pocono 500 but will have to race better than he has this year if he hopes to win here again. Gordon finished last weekend's race in fifth place and that brought him up four places to sixth from 10th in the standings for the Sprint Cup. But the reality is for Gordon to win again he's going to have to outpace JGR and the awesome Toyota's they have brought to each and every Sprint Cup race this year.
One such driver (not named Kyle Busch) is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin was one of the unlucky Chase drivers who got involved in the pile-up 17 laps into the Best Buy 400. Hamlin tumbled five places in the standings from fourth to ninth place; 420 points behind the Sprint Cup leader Kyle Busch. On the season, Hamlin has far exceeded expectations for Joe Gibbs Racing where he was expected to be fighting to keep his spot on the roster with the addition of Busch in the off-season. Hamlin has quickly become one of the marquee attractions in the JGR stable and is likely one of the few drivers that might be able to challenge Busch for the Sprint Cup title this year. But Hamlin will need to avoid early pile-ups like last weekend if this is to happen.
Gambler's investing in this race should be aware of qualifying results. Winners in four of the past five races on the tri-oval have come from the front row of the grid; twice from the pole by Denny Hamlin and twice from the outside by Kurt Busch. In recent memory at Pocono you'll be hard pressed to find a driver with more success than Denny Hamlin. The driver of the No.11 Toyota has literally burned up the track. Hamlin has recorded two wins, three top-five and four top-10 finishes with an average finish of 2.8! In fact if you don't feel like the price is right for Hamlin to win, investing in Hamlin to finish in the top three is a sound investment but you'll only get 9/5 from Sportsbook.com.
Hamlin has led 283 laps on the Pennsylvania tri-oval and sixth place is his worst finish. One reason for Hamlin's success is his crew chief Mike Ford is able to bring his best cars to Pocono to give Hamlin a shot at wining every time he gets behind the wheel of his Toyota. Starting from the pole helps as well. Another reason Hamlin has done well is his ability to handle the turns; especially the high bank turns where Hamlin is known to do some of his best work. Keep an eye on turn three as the upper part of the corner has new asphalt so most of the drivers will look to establish ownership of the high-side rather than take chances with the old surface on the bottom coming out of the turn as they head for the start-finish line which most likely following a JGR car and driver; for our purposes lets hope it is the No. 11 car.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, 6/1
Pocono 500 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Best Buy 400, considered one of the hardest tracks to race on in the Sprint Cup, this weekend. Last week, our pick Jeff Gordon at +1.05 finished the Best Buy 400 in fifth place, which was great for the No. 24 driver. The problem was he was going against Matt Kenseth who finished the race fourth, costing us one unit on my Square Tire Pick. This brings my record Over-the-Wall to 9-9 with -1.55 units on the season with 13 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.
Long Odds Value Pick
Newman has had some success at Pocono winning the fall race in 2003 back when it was the Winston Cup. Ryan Newman, in the No. 12 Alltel, Roger Penske Dodge, has notched five top-five and six top-10 finishes with an average finish of 13.6. It appears that the troubles that Dodge has had with their engines earlier in the season might be over. Newman managed to lead the Best Buy 400 for six laps and the Coca-Cola 600 for one lap. However, Newman has not finished better than fourth place since his win at Daytona for the first race of the year. Newman is in 14th place and 555 points behind the leader in the Sprint Cup standings and will be going all out in an effort to get within the top 12 places in the standings that comprise the Chase. Last year at the Pocono 500 he started from the pole and finished second and in the August race, the Pennsylvania 500, he started fourth place and finished in seventh. So Newman has done well in the past at Pocono it remains to be seen if he can win at Pocono for the first time in five years.
Pick! Ryan Newman, (30/1)
Square Tire Pick
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (-1.45)/Greg Biffle(+1.15)
Biffle's fortunes have certainly been on an upswing as he recorded his second straight top-five finish at Dover for Rousch Fenway Racing. He finished in second place two weeks ago at the Coca-Cola 600, and after winning the pole at Dover, finished the Monster Mile in third place. Biffle led for 164 of the first 170 laps until an alternator problem gave Carl Edwards the opportunity to claim the lead. Even with the problem, Biffle never fell below 8th place and was able to overcome the lack of oxygen to bring him up six places from 11th to 5th in the Sprint Cup standings. While he has never won at Pocono, I think that momentum will play a lot into this weekend's matchup and Biffle has it all when compared to Junior. Junior finds himself 271 points behind the leader in the Sprint Cup, but he is lucky to hold onto third place after being part of the huge crash 17 laps into the Best Buy 400. While he finished the race, the accident cost him the chance to move up on Burton and Busch. Looking at the statistics Junior has a better record at Pocono. Junior's average finish of 17.3 is slightly better than Biffle's 19.2. Junior has also never won at Pocono, but then it has been more than two years since Junior won a race at all. However, with four top-five and five top-10 finishes Junior has been better than Biffle who has only recorded one top-five and two top-10 finishes. Gambler's know that statistics are like a woman in a bikini; they don't reveal everything. I wouldn't be surprised if Biffle brings the same car as he did last weekend I wouldn't be surprised to see him win the pole and the race.
Pick! Gregg Biffle, No. 16, (+1.15)
*Pocono 500 Odds
Sun, June 8th (2:00pm EST)
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bill Elliott 200/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 60/1
Carl Edwards 13/2
Casey Mears 50/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Dario Franchitti 200/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 150/1
David Ragan 40/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 14/1
J.J. Yeley 150/1
Jamie McMurray 70/1
Jason Leffler 200/1
Jeff Burton 28/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Joe Nemechek 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 65/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 14/1
Kyle Busch 9/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 20/1
Matt Kenseth 15/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Michael Waltrip 125/1
Patrick Carpentier 200/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 200/1
Robby Gordon 200/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Terry Labonte 150/1
Tony Raines 200/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog.