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2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/13/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates predictions Paul Skenes

Last season was better than expected for the Pittsburgh Pirates, despite their last place finish, who finished four games better than their expected record. They finished 76-86 last season and were 17 games out of first place in the NL Central division. They missed the playoffs by 13 games, as their lineup failed to produce all season.

Bryan Reynolds led the weak Pirates lineup with a 3.7 WAR after he posted a .791 OPS, clubbed a team-best 24 homeruns, and tallied a team best 88 RBIs. Reynolds also stole 10 bases and recorded 171 hits. Oneil Cruz was the second most productive hitter in the lineup, where he posted a 20/20 season, hitting 21 homeruns and stealing 22 bases. Cruz finished second on the team in hits (140) and RBIs (76) while posting a 2.5 WAR. Andrew McCutchen was the only other Pirates player to reach the 20-homerun mark, reaching the milestone for the eighth time in his career and his first since 2021. Catcher Joey Bart had the third highest WAR on the team (2.2) after he hit 13 homeruns and recorded 45 RBIs across 80 games last season for Pittsburgh. As a team, the Pirates ranked 24th in runs, 25th in homeruns, 27th in OPS, 16th in stolen bases, and 22nd in hits.

Thanks to the emergence of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, the Pirates rotation fared much better than expected. They still were in the bottom third in the league, ranking 20th in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. One positive thing is that they gave up the sixth least number of homeruns last season. Skenes led the way with a 5.9 WAR despite pitching  only133 innings. He had 15 quality starts out of his 23 total starts and he struck out 170 batters, giving him an elite 11.5 K/9 ratio. He finished the season with a team best 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Luis Ortiz made 15 starts and totaled 37 appearances on the season for Pittsburgh, finishing second on the team with a 3.0 WAR. He posted a 3.32 ERA across 135.2 innings while recording a 1.11 WHIP. Mitch Keller led the way with 178 innings pitched where he posted a 4.25 ERA and had a 2.0 WAR. Jones’ production slipped down the stretch, but the rookie finished with a 1.8 WAR after finishing with 132 strikeouts across 121.2 innings.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Key Additions/Losses

At the end of the season, pitchers Aroldis Chapman and Jalen Beeks, as well as catcher Yasmani Grandal, became free agents. The Pirates also non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz and Connor Joe while declining the option on Marco Gonzales. The Pirates also traded Ortiz and two prospects in a deal with the Cleveland Guardians.

The return for Ortiz and the prospects was utilityman Spencer Horwitz. The Pirates made some minor moves signing pitchers Tanner Rainey, Yerry Rodriguez, Carson Fulmer, Burch Smith, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Mayza, and Andrew Heaney. The team also reunited with Adam Frazier, while also signing Tommy Pham, DJ Stewart, and Nick Solak.

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Outlook

The Pirates saw Skenes, Jones, and others graduate from their farm system after last season, and now their farm ranks 20th in the MLB, with four prospects making MLB’s Top 100 Prospects rankings. The rotation looks like it may get another young arm to add to the fold, with right hander Bubba Chandler rated as the team’s top prospect and the 15th ranked prospect in the league. Chandler is another bullet-throwing righty that has solid secondary pitches. He is joined by right hander Thomas Harrington, who is the team’s third ranked prospect and the 79th ranked prospect in the league as another potential up and comer that can impact the rotation this season.

Sandwiched between Chandler and Harrington is shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin, who is the 43rd ranked prospect in the MLB. Griffin is years away, but he already showcases Gold Glove potential and offers plus speed and power. Middle infielder Temarr Johnson rounds out the list as the 82nd ranked prospect.

Pittsburgh Pirates X-Factors

Bubba Chandler- Chandler has a similar makeup as Skenes and a similar outlook as Jones. If he can emerge on the scene this season for the Pirates, then they will have a trio of young, hard throwing, pitchers atop their rotation, and that is exactly what they are counting on. Chandler needs to work on his command, but he has the stuff to be one of the top rookie pitchers this season. A Skenes, Jones, Chandler trio would be scary in about three years.

Front Office- While the front office has hit some homeruns with their pitching prospects like Skenes, Jones and seemingly Chandler, they have failed to put actual homeruns in their lineup. Cruz and Hayes appear to be the only long-term options offensively for Pittsburgh. They have two enticing bats working their way through the system, but their front office would benefit from focusing on hitter specific future capital at the deadline and in the draft. They will have some solid trade pieces in Reynolds, Bart, Pham, and Keller that should allow them to bring in some other top prospects in the league to bolster their farm system and the team’s future outlook offensively.

Pittsburgh Pirates Expectations

The expectations this season are for the Pirates to once again finish in the basement of the NL Central as they continue to wait on some of their top prospects to reach the big leagues. Their lineup may be one of the worst lineups in the league, and it will likely get weaker at some point this season if they move on from Reynolds, Bart, Pham, or Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. They could see a boost in production when Horwitz is healthy, but he is not going to drastically move the needle. The Pirates are still a few years away from entering a playoff window.

Pittsburgh Pirates Notable Odds:

Win Total: 76.5

World Series Champions- +12000

Pennant Winners- +7500

Division Winners- +1000

NL MVP- Paul Skenes +5500

NL MVP- Oneil Cruz +12000

NL Cy Young- Paul Skenes +220

NL Cy Young- Jared Jones +5500

NL Rookie of the Year- Bubba Chandler +850

2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Chandler has the potential to do what Skenes did last season and enter the league and almost immediately become a top tier arm. At +850, he has tremendous value to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Aside from Chandler, Skenes as a Cy Young candidate is another good option, as he will likely lead the league in strikeouts and should continue to dominate. However, he doesn’t have a full season of work under his belt, and guys like Zach Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell have all been Cy Young candidates for many years. As for team futures, they will likely be in the basement of the NL Central, and I expect their win total to fall under the projected mark of 76.5. They won just 76 games last season, which was better than their expected 72-90 record, and their already weak lineup contains trade candidates and injury prone players. I expect the Pirates to be reaching for 70 wins much less 77. Take the under on the win total.

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