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2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/28/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates predictions Bryan Reynolds

Summary of Last Season

After getting off to a competitive start, the Pittsburgh Pirates season dragged on. They would go on to finish fourth in the NL Central with a 76-86 record, which was six games better than their 70-92 expected record. They finished 22-17 in one-run games while struggling in games that went beyond nine innings, as they lost in nine of their 12 games that went into extras. The Pirates would finish eight games behind the last wild card spot.

Ke’Bryan Hayes led the offense with a 4.0 WAR, as the franchise star recorded 15 homeruns, 61 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases in just 123 games. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds was the only Pirates player to record over 500 Abs, and he would go on to finish second on the team in WAR at 2.5 while hitting 24 homeruns and tallying a team leading 84 RBIs. Jack Suwinski hit 26 homeruns and recorded 74 RBIs while recording a 2.2 WAR. Ji Hwan Bae led Pittsburgh with 24 stolen bases. This lineup ranked 22nd in runs scored and OPS, 24th in hits, and 28th in homeruns.

As for the pitching, no Pirates starter would post an ERA less than Mitch Keller’s 4.21 mark. He led the team with 18 quality starts across 194.1 innings of work and finished with 210 strikeouts and a 2.9 WAR. Johan Oviedo and Rich Hill were the only other Pirates to post more than 100 innings of work on the mound. David Bednar anchored the bullpen, as the closer finished with 39 saves and a 2.00 ERA in 67.1 innings. The Pirates ranked 22nd in the MLB in ERA and WHIP.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Key Additions/Losses

After the season ended, Andrew McCutchen, Vince Velasquez, Miguel Andujar, and Angel Perdomo hit the free agent market or were claimed off waivers. However, the losses were minimal, and the Pirates added a few pieces to be competitive. They would ultimately bring McCutchen back while also signing Martin Perez, Rowdy Tellez, Jake Lamb, Aroldis Chapman, Wily Peralta, Josh Fleming, Chase Anderson, Domingo German, and Michael A. Taylor. They would also trade for Marco Gonzales to further bolster the rotation.

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Outlook

The Pirates top overall prospect Paul Skenes is expected to have an impact at the big-league level at some point this season but will start the year in the minors. Pittsburgh is a young team as is. However, outside of Skenes and pitchers Jared Jones (3rd) and Anthony Solometo (4th), most of the farm system is a few years away from being MLB-ready.

Pittsburgh Pirates X-Factors

Cruz/Hayes duo- There is a tremendously high ceiling for the Pirates left side of their infield. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes are both young players who the Pirates are wanting to build around. Hayes has multiple seasons of experience already and is a solid top-of-the-order hitter, while Cruz brings speed, power, and a cannon of an arm to the table. They will both need to get on base ahead of Bryan Reynolds so this lineup can perform.

Front Office- The Pirates are not going to be in the playoff picture again this season. However, they have a lot of exciting young pool of players to build around. There are a few veterans on this team that can be flipped for future capital as the season wears on. Look for the front office to be active and open up more cap space and add to the farm.

Pittsburgh Pirates Expectations

To sell but fight off the Brewers and stay out of the basement. Pittsburgh is likely going to finish last in the NL Central this season, but they will at least try to put together a competitive first half of the season. Cruz, Hayes, and Reynolds are a solid top three in the lineup, but the rest of the order looks to be shaky. The pitching rotation got better by adding Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, but those two seem to be short-term Pirates and will likely be traded at the deadline. Expect a bad season for the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +20000

Pennant Winners- +10000

Division Winners- +1200

NL MVP- Oneil Cruz- +6500

NL Cy Young- Mitch Keller- +4000

Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

I expect this team to sell the veteran players at some point this season before having an active offseason. The Pirates have a lot of good pieces in place but are still a few years away from their competition window. Their projected win total is 75.5, and I like the under. I think the start of the season will be much slower than it was last season, and they will be out of the race much quicker. The front office won’t hesitate to dangle their veterans like carrots for other teams to grab.

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