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2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/22/2024

Pittsburgh Penguins predictions Erik Karlsson

Last season was a weird one for Pittsburgh. They ultimately fell short of a playoff spot after finishing the season with 88 points, three behind the Washington Capitals, who secured the final Wild Card. The Penguins appeared to be sellers at the deadline with uncertainty surrounding long time star Sidney Crosby. They traded away Jake Guentzel, who had recorded 52 points in 50 games, significantly weakening the offensive potential. However, the Penguins ended the season on a 6-2-1 record that had them in the thick of it, down to the final days of the season.

The Penguins ranked in the middle of the pack in scoring, finishing with 3.09 GF/G, while their special teams were really bad. They finished 30th in the league in PP%, as they cashed in on just 15.3% of their Power Play opportunities. Their Penalty Kill was fine, as they were tied with the New Jersey Devils for 10th in the league with a PK% of 80.7%. Sidney Crosby led the team with 94 points, 42 goals, and 52 assists. His 94 points ranked 12th in the league, while he ranked 11th in goals. Outside of Crosby, the production took a huge hit. Evgeni Malkin finished with 67 points, while Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, and Kris Letang all finished at the 50-point mark. Malkin, Rust, and Guentzel all finished with more than 20 goals.

Their goaltending was reliable all season. Pittsburgh allowed 3.02 GA/G on a .903 SV%. The Penguins had three different goalies between the pipes last year, with Tristan Jarry carrying the bulk of the load with 51 games played. He finished with a 19-25-5 record with a .903 SV%. Alex Nedeljkovic played well in a backup capacity, as he allowed 2.97 GA/G and finished with an 18-7-7 record in his 38 appearances. Magnus Hellberg was the third goalie who appeared in just three games, allowing 2.50 GA/G on a solid .922 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2024-25:

Pittsburgh Penguins Key Additions/Losses

Outside of the deadline loss of Jake Guentzel, the biggest loss from last seasons roster was Reilly Smith, who was traded to the Rangers after finishing with 40 points. They lost depth at the center position, with Jansen Harkins and Vinnie Hinostroza leaving for new teams, while the Penguins also got a little weaker at the blue line as well losing Pierre Oliver-Jospeh.

However, the Penguins were busy this offseason. They brought in Matt Grzelcyk (14 points), Mac Hollowell (44 points in the AHL), Nathan Clurman, and Sebastian Aho to boost the blue line depth. They traded for Kevin Hayes (29 points) to replace Smith, while also signing forwards Anthony Beauvillier (17 points) and Blake Lizotte (15 points).

Pittsburgh Penguins X-Factors

Deadline Additions- The Crosby and Malkin experience is about to wrap up, though Crosby did just get a two-year extension. However, the window is not completely shut and the Pittsburgh faithful want to see these two be a part of one more competitive team that makes a run. They added some depth in Beauvillier and Lizotte, but there is a lot of room for improvement for the Penguins. Look for Pittsburgh to jump the gun early on some moves if they are in contention so they can give their franchise guy one more chance to pursue a cup.

Injuries- Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Karlsson are all 34 or older, and they all have an injury history. These four also were in the top six on the team in points. If any of these guys face a long-term injury, then the season could be derailed and emphasis on their deadline activity increases.

Pittsburgh Penguins Goalie Outlook

The goaltending tandem of Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic is back in full force. Both goalies held opponents to less than 3.00 GA/G last season and will be depended on to repeat this performance again this season. The offense didn’t get any better, so the performance between the pipes is crucial for the success, or lack thereof, for the Penguins this season. Jarry was tied for the league with six shutout performances last season. If Jarry could return to his 2021-22 production and take over the bulk of the starts, the Penguins might give Crosby that chance at one more run.

Grade: B-

Pittsburgh Penguins Key Schedule Stretch

January 17th- February 8th: This is the final 11-game stretch before the All-Star Break. Of these 11 contests, nine of them are on the road, with their lone two home games coming against much improved playoff hopefuls. First and foremost, this seems like a crucial stretch as it will go a long way in determining their deadline decisions. With 22 potential points, this 11-game stretch can propel them into contention or be a huge setback, depending on their performance. The nine road games include trips to Buffalo, Washington, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Seattle, San Jose, Utah, New York (Rangers), and Philadelphia. The two home games are against Nashville and New Jersey. Of the nine road games, five of them are against playoff teams or teams on the fringe of the playoffs. Additionally, their contests in Buffalo, Washington, and Philadelphia hold tremendous tiebreaker value.

Pittsburgh Penguins Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +5000

Conference Winner: +2400

Division Winner: +1100

Hart Trophy- Sidney Crosby: +15000

Norris Trophy- Erik Karlsson: +5000

Vezina Trophy- Tristan Jarry: +9000

Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction

With the age and injury history, along with the lack of improvement, I am on the under 90.5 for the Penguins team total. Erik Karlsson and his offensive production will always be in the Norris Trophy conversation, so getting a flier on him at +5000 is worth a look. However, I do not see this Penguins team making the playoffs, and they could take a step back now that they don’t have Jake Guentzel’s offensive production for the bulk of the season.

Under 90.5 Team Total Points

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