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2024 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/8/2024

Philadelphia Phillies predictions Aaron Nola

Summary of Last Season

Last season was a big one for Philadelphia Phillies fans, as they were able to knock off their division rival, the Atlanta Braves, for a second straight year, despite falling well short of the division title. Philadelphia would go on to lose to the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, taking the series to seven games. They posted a 90-72 record, as their poor road performance (41-40) held them back from catching the Braves.

The Phillies lineup features some stars like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos, but it was second baseman Bryson Stott who led the offense with a 4.4 WAR after slashing .280/.329/.419 and tallying 31 stolen bases and 62 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber led the way with 47 homeruns, while Turner, Castellanos, Harper, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto all clubbed 20 or more homeruns. Turner would also join Stott as the only two Phillies to record 30 or more stolen bases. As a team, they ranked 6th in OPS, 8th in runs, 7th in stolen bases, and 9th in hits.

As for the pitching, the Phillies rotation features one of the best 1-2 punches in the game, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Both pitchers would record more than 190 innings, with Wheeler leading the two with a 4.2 WAR and a 3.61 ERA. His 21 quality starts, and 212 strikeouts, also led the club. Nola finished with 202 strikeouts and a 2.1 WAR. Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez were innings eaters, as they both recorded over 120 innings and combined for a 4.28 ERA and 22 quality starts. Flamethrower Craig Kimbrel led the way out of the bullpen with 23 saves and a 3.26 ERA across 69 innings of work. Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman also proved to be shutdown guys in the late innings, as they each posted a sub 3.30 ERA. As a team, they finished with a 4.03 ERA, which was good for 12th best in the MLB.

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Philadelphia Phillies Key Additions/Losses

There was a significant departure from the Phillies once the offseason began, as Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzon, and Rhys Hoskins hit the free agent market. Faced with some pitching depth concerns, the club signed Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard while taking fliers on Austin Brice, Ryan Burr, Nick Snyder, and Jose Ruiz who signed minor league deals.

The Phillies also locked up their star pitching duo as they signed Nola to a seven-year deal while giving Wheeler a three-year extension. The Phillies also added Whit Merrifield late in the offseason which should give them a reliable guy off the bench.

Philadelphia Phillies Prospect Outlook

The Phiillies have a lot of pitchers on the way. Andrew Painter (1st), Mick Abel (2nd), Orion Kerkering (6th), and Griff McGarry (11th) are all projected to impact the major league club at some point over the next two seasons. While they have an abundance of pitching prospects, the lineup doesn’t seem like it will get any boost internally this season. OF/1B Carlos De La Cruz (13th) is the only bat that projects to see any time with the Phillies this season.

Philadelphia Phillies X-Factors

Offensive health- The Phillies had eight players play in more than 100 games last year. The bench wasn’t a huge factor, nor was it really any good. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies use any of their pitching prospects to grab another bat and give the lineup some reinforcements.

Starting Pitching depth- Yes, Nola and Wheeler will be All-Stars and end up posting similar campaigns barring any injuries, After those two, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez are slated to finish the rotation. They all kept their ERAs under 4.40 and went a combined 22-17, which is all you can ask for out of the bottom half of the rotation. However, they are an injury away from having a gaping hole, and ask the Dodgers how many pitchers one needs to stay competitive in the event of injuries.

Philadelphia Phillies Expectations

They will give the Braves a good chase for the NL East Title. The Braves got a lot better this offseason, especially if Chris Sale can stay healthy along with Max Fried and Spencer Strider, so the Phillies have their work cut out for them if they want to compete for the division title. The lineup is deep, though aging, and should have plenty of juice to repeat their success this season. The bullpen will be something to monitor this season, as Kimbrel is gone and the lack of starting pitching the Phillies will end up being heavily reliant on their bullpen especially when its not Nola or Wheeler days.

Philadelphia Phillies Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +1500

Pennant Winners- +800

Division Winners- +330

NL MVP- Bryce Harper- +1200

NL MVP Trea Turner- +2200

NL Cy Young- Zack Wheeler- +850

Philadelphia Phillies Predictions

Another good playoff try. They don’t have the depth to keep up with the Braves or Dodgers, but as the Phillies have demonstrated over the last two seasons that they don’t need to. All you need to do is get in. If they get in, there is a lot of stardom to take them on another deep playoff run, albeit if they remain healthy. I like Zack Wheeler at +850 for the Cy Young and though there are a lot questions, +1500 is a good value for a club who can win it all.

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