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2025 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/6/2025

Philadelphia Phillies predictions Cristopher Sanchez

The Philadelphia Phillies dethroned the Atlanta Braves and won the NL East crown after going 95-67 last season. They finished with a six-game lead over the Braves and the New York Mets and finished one game better than their expected record thanks to a winning record in one-run games. However, despite their strong regular season, the Phillies would lose in the NLDS to the rival Mets. They would drop the series in four games, as they averaged just three runs per game in the series.

The Phillies had an incredibly deep lineup last season. Bryce Harper led the way with a 4.8 WAR, and the Phillies had five other players record a 3.0 WAR or better. Kyle Schwarber finished with a 3.5 WAR, Brandon Marsh finished with a 3.1 WAR, while Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto all finished with a 3.0 WAR. Schwarber’s 38 homeruns led the club, while Harper hit 30 homeruns. Turner just missed out on the 20/20 club, as the speedster hit 21 homeruns and stole 19 bases. Bohm finished second on the team with 97 RBIs, while outfielder Nick Castellanos was the only Phillies player to appear in every single game last season. As a team, the Phillies finished fifth in the league in runs, seventh in homeruns, fourth in OPS, and fourth in hits.

Their starting rotation wasn’t bad, either. They finished 11th in ERA with a 3.85 mark, while their 1.24 WHIP ranked 10th in the MLB. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola continued to lead the rotation, as Wheeler finished with a 6.1 WAR, a 16-7 record, and a 2.57 ERA across 200 innings of work. Nola was right behind Wheeler with 199.1 innings, and he allowed a 3.57 ERA with 20 quality starts and a 3.6 WAR. Cristopher Sanchez had an incredible year as well, as he finished with 181.2 innings and had a 3.32 ERA and a 3.4 WAR. Ranger Suarez recorded more than 150 innings, and he finished with a 3.46 ERA, giving the Phillies a solid quartet in their rotation. Relievers Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering dominated out of the bullpen. Strahm finished with a 1.87 ERA, with Hoffman and Kerkering right behind with a 2.17 and a 2.29 ERA. The trio all reached the 62+ inning mark, and they combined for a 6.1 WAR out of the bullpen.

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Philadelphia Phillies Key Additions/Losses

At the end of the season, the Phillies lost pitchers Spencer Turnbull, Carlos Estevez, and Hoffman to free agency, while they traded away utilityman Scott Kingery. The team also non-tendered outfielder Austin Hays and they traded reliever Tyler Gilbert to the Chicago White Sox. Philadelphia also had to part ways with one of their top prospects in Starlyn Caba in a deal with the Miami Marlins.

The additions far outweigh the losses for the Phillies. Though they did not produce at a Hoffman-like level, the team added reliever Jordan Romano eat up some important innings later in games. The team also acquired starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo to add to their already deep pitching rotation. The Phillies also brought in pitcher Joe Ross, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Christian Arroyo.

Philadelphia Phillies Prospect Outlook

The Phillies farm system is incredibly top-heavy. They have four prospects ranked inside MLB’s Top 100 Prospect rankings, but their farm system ranks just 17th in the MLB. The Phillies are in a clear win-now window with an aging core of stars, so these prospects may never actually play with the Phillies as they get shipped off in deadline deals. The lone exception is pitcher Andrew Painter, who is the Phillies top prospect and the eighth ranked prospect in the MLB. At 6’7”, Painter has an incredible fastball with a new hard cutting slider, and his control is well above average. Following Painter is shortstop Aidan Miller, who is the 27th ranked prospect in the MLB with outfielder Justin Crawford (63rd) and catcher Eduardo Tait (92nd) rounding out the top prospects in the Phillies system.

Philadelphia Phillies X-Factors

Bullpen- Last season it was Hoffman, Strahm, and Kerkering who dominated for the Phillies out of the bullpen. This season, Hoffman is in Toronto, while Strahm has been inconsistent over the latter part of his career. Kerkering is entering just his second full season in the big leagues. With the majority of relievers in the MLB, we often see some significant variance from season to season. Romano has the experience and track record of a proven late innings guy, but he has a 4.75 ERA over his last 72.2 innings. Jose Alvarado was overhyped heading into last season and was not very good as the teams closer, posting a 4.09 ERA. The options are limited; they will need someone to step up, or they will likely be forced into another Estevez-like trade and overpay for a rental.

Kyler Schwarber/Nick Castellanos- Both sluggers are entering the later years of their careers. Though they may still be in their prime, they are X-Factors here as they are on a production watch. Schwarber has been clubbing homeruns for the Phillies for a while now, but his homerun numbers dropped by nine from 2023. Castellanos, on the other hand, hit a career worst .254 at the plate (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Both players still have tremendous value and are above average hitters, but their performance this season can teeter this lineup from good to great status.

Philadelphia Phillies Expectations

The expectations around the league are for the Phillies to run it back as NL East champs and be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. They have one of the deepest rotations in baseball with Wheeler and Nola providing one of the most consistent 1-2 punches in the league over the last few seasons. Their lineup is going to be one of the best in baseball again this season. However, their division is back to competitive with the Braves and Mets featuring some of the best rosters in baseball. Nonetheless, this is a playoff-caliber team that could win the World Series if they can get past the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies Notable Odds:

Win Total: 91.5

World Series Champions- +1100

Pennant Winners- +650

Division Winners- +180

NL MVP- Bryce Harper +1800

NL MVP- Trea Turner +4500

NL Cy Young- Zack Wheeler +600

NL Cy Young- Cristopher Sanchez +5000

NL Rookie of the Year- Andrew Painter +4000

2025 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions

Wheeler has been in the Cy Young conversations consistently over the past few seasons, and he would have won it last year if it wasn’t for the resurgence of Chris Sale. At +600, Wheeler has the second-best odds to win the award behind Paul Skenes. Skenes has just one shortened season under his belt, while Wheeler has been doing this for years. I am favoring the veteran, and Wheeler finally gets a Cy Young. As for the team, they should be the favorites to repeat as the division champs, and at +180 you get some good value there, especially when you consider that both the Braves and Mets will begin the year missing some of their key players. Philadelphia will win the division again, but all three of the NL East monsters are one step behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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