PGA Tour Picks: BMW Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
I figured that when Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship to go with his U.S. Open victory that Koepka was a lock to win PGA Tour Player of the Year. And he's still almost surely going to be - I doubt any guy has won two majors in a year and not won it.
However, rising superstar Bryson DeChambeau could make things very interesting in that race as DeChambeau on Monday won the Dell Technologies Championship in Boston for his third win in his past nine events overall and to become the second player ever (Vijay Singh in 2008) to win both of the first two playoff FedExCup playoff events in the same year.
DeChambeau, who essentially locked down a U.S. Ryder Cup captain's pick spot (Jim Furyk's first three to be named later Tuesday), closed with a 4-under 67 on Monday to win by two over Justin Rose on the TPC Boston. That ensures the 24-year-old DeChambeau will be the points leader at the season-ending Tour Championship regardless of this week. I don't see him winning at the BMW Championship because it's nearly impossible to win three straight weeks on Tour and, frankly, he almost lacks motivation know. But let's say DeChambeau wins the Tour Championship and the FedExCup. Then you have to at least consider him for Player of the Year. DeChambeau is also up to No. 7 in the world after starting 2018 at No. 99.
Other than DeChambeau, the big story line at the Dell was the cutdown from the Top 100 in the points to the Top 70 for this week's BMW Championship at Aronimink outside Philadelphia. Ted Potter Jr. finished right at 70, falling from No. 62 before the Dell. Ryan Moore had the biggest drop, going from No. 60 to 71. Among other notables who didn't advance were Stewart Cink, Nick Watney, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar (the biggest), J.B. Holmes, Charley Hoffman and Jason Dufner. A total of six guys got into the Top 70 who weren't, meaning six obviously fell out.
The Top 30 after the BMW Championship head to Atlanta for the Tour Championship with all technically having a chance at the FedExCup but realistically probably only the Top 10. Anyone in the Top 5 at the Tour Championship wins the $10 million FedExCup if he also wins that tournament. As I mentioned, DeChambeau will be No. 1 no matter what happens this week (no cut). Dustin Johnson is second, Rose jumped to third with his runner-up Monday, Tony Finau is fourth and Justin Thomas fifth. Koepka fell to sixth. Currently at No. 31 is Chez Reavie. Rickie Fowler, who has missed the first two playoff events due to injury, is No. 26. Jordan Spieth 27th. Tiger Woods 25th. Rory McIlroy 24th. So all those guys need to play well.
The defending champion of this tournament is Aussie Marc Leishman (currently 22nd in points), but that's frankly irrelevant because it was at Conway Farms outside Chicago when Leishman finished with a tournament-record score of 23-under to win by five over Rose and Fowler. This is the first time that Aronimink hosts this tournament or any PGA Tour event since the 2011 AT&T National. Next year, the BMW Championship goes to storied Medinah in the Chicago area. Aronimink is a par 70 at 7,237 yards.
Golf Odds: BMW Championship Favorites
Bit surprised that DeChambeau (+1600) isn't favored at Bovada , but it's world No. 1 Dustin Johnson per usual, priced at +900. He could have lost that top spot last week but has retained it with a tie for seventh - a third-round 72 was the killer, but DJ closed with a 64. Johnson won this tournament in 2016 & '10 but both at different courses so take what you want from that.
Rose is +1200 with Koepka and Thomas at +1400. Rose had that runner-up in last year's BMW and won in 2011 at Cog Hill. Koepka was T12 last week and Thomas T24. Neither has done much in this event.
Tiger is +2200 this week; he and Johnson are the only players to win the BMW twice. Woods has struggled with the putter some of late with finishes of T24 and T40 the past two weeks. He's not used to playing this frequently.
Golf Odds: BMW Championship Picks
For a Top 10, go with Johnson (-125), Rose (+110), Spieth (+200), who might be ready to turn things around off his T12, and Finau (+200). I picked Finau to win two weeks ago and he was T2. Last week: T4. Thus, I'll take him at +1100 for top American. Go Rose at +300 as top European and Hideki Matsuyama (+375) as top rest of the world.
I'm torn between Rose, who won the 2010 AT&T National at this course, and Hideki (+2500). Let's go Matsuyama simply as he's better-priced. It hasn't been a great year for him due to injuries, but he's working on three straight Top 15s after a fourth last week and needs a good finish to advance as he's 28th in points.
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