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2024 Penn State Nittany Lions Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Joey House - 7/29/2024

Penn State Nittany Lions football predictions Drew Allar

I always think of summer like the famous opening line from Charles Dickens's "A Tale of Two Cities: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." I'm a fan of watching and betting on baseball. Being a numbers nerd, I also enjoy researching the upcoming football season. I consider a few preseason guides must-haves, and waiting for them in the mail makes me feel like a little kid again.

However, the wait for the season to start feels like pure torture. With each passing weekend, the days seem to grow longer until it feels like we're living on Venus, where a day lasts 243 Earth days. I remember how the days before Christmas would drag on when I was young, seemingly lasting forever. That's exactly how I feel once August 1 arrives on the calendar.

One of the greatest attributes of the summer is the air of possibility. Before the season starts, everyone starts with a clean slate, nary a blemish to besmirch their perfect record. The Penn State Nittany Lions fan base knows this feeling all too well. However, with the introduction of the 12-team college football playoffs and replacing coordinators on both sides of the ball, Nittany Lions fans hope their summer dreamin' will turn into winter playin'.

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Penn State Nittany Lions Coaching changes

Head coach James Franklin recently stated at the preseason Big Ten Media Day, "We are one of the few programs in the country where you can win 10 or 11 games and people are unhappy." There is a very deep divide in the Nittany Nation over Franklin's record. His supporters readily point out that the Nittany Lions have won 10 or more games in five of Franklin's 10 seasons at the helm of Penn State. His detractors responded with Franklin's inability to win the big game, as evidenced by PSU's combined 4-16 record against Michigan and Ohio State. The slight caveat to that poor showing is Penn State's Against-The-Spread (ATS) record versus Ohio State. While they have only one win against the Buckeyes in Franklin's 10 years at Happy Valley, PSU does possess a 7-3 ATS mark, which would seem to indicate that they are very close to getting over the hump. However, the ATS record against Michigan contradicts this hypothesis, as PSU is 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS against the Wolverines.

Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Coordinator

Perhaps the only cry louder last season than "Fire Franklin" was the roar to get rid of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, and that is precisely what Franklin did the day after Penn State's 24-15 loss to Michigan. In the offseason, Penn State hired Andy Kotelnicki from the University of Kansas football staff. Kotelnicki is known as one of the great young offensive minds in the game today. While he was at Buffalo, the Bulls' scoring went from 16.5 ppg in his second year to 43.4 ppg in his final season (although this was the Covid season, and Buffalo played only seven games). His improvement at Kansas was even quicker, as the Jayhawks went from 20.8 ppg in his first season to 34.8 ppg during his third and final season last year. Given that he should have better weapons around him than he did at either Buffalo or Kansas, expectations are sky-high for Penn State's offense.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Coordinator

The Nittany Nation faithful were dealt a heavy but expected loss immediately following the regular season when beloved defensive coordinator Manny Diaz took the head coach position at Duke. In a program known for its prodigious talent on the defensive side of the ball, Diaz took PSU's defense to heights it hadn't seen in over a decade. His defensive scoring unit never finished lower than 10th, and last year finished 3rd in the country in points allowed. The search to replace Manny produced former Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen. Allen leaves Indiana after eight seasons at the helm as their 5th-winningest coach in school history. Allen, too, will have a cupboard laden with talent, so it will be interesting to see his defensive philosophies fully realized.

Penn State Nittany Lions Offense

Penn State's offense last season was an enigma wrapped in a question. They were 12th in scoring, with 36.2 ppg. Yet they were 79th in passing at 215 yards/game, 29th in rushing at 184.8, and 27th in first downs a game at 22.5. The much-ballyhooed QB, Drew Allar, struggled with accuracy (59.9%) and simply throwing the ball downfield, where he was 45th in the nation with 7.8 air yards/attempt. He did lead the country in interceptions thrown, with only two, but a large part of that was Allar's refusal to throw deep and take chances. Allar's wide receiving corps did him absolutely no favors, as they had a high drop rate and lacked the explosive ability to create separation and get open. Penn State fans hope this will change with the Ohio State transfer WR Julian Fleming. The 5th-year senior was stuck behind a bevy of talent at Ohio State and still managed to grab 34 passes for 533 yards and 6 TDs as a junior in 2022. The running back room is the exact opposite of the wide receivers. The junior duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen is arguably the best running-back tandem in the country. The offensive line may struggle as they lost three starters to the NFL draft.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defense

Often, when a popular coach such as Manny Diaz leaves to go to another program, he convinces some of his players to follow him. Luckily for PSU fans, none of his defensive players went with him. Incoming defensive coordinator Tom Allen does have to replace Adisa Issac, last year's sack leader with 7.5. They also lose two starters in the secondary but should be fine there with two SEC safeties/corners transferring in. The big defensive gamble is moving 1st-team Big Ten linebacker Abdul Carter to a rush position on the line. Carter has drawn numerous comparisons to another great #11 jersey worn at Penn State, Micah Parsons. The hope is that moving Carter to a more forward position will disrupt the opposing team's offensive flow.

Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

While many of the Penn State faithful are disappointed with Franklin's lack of success against Michigan and Ohio State, the fact remains that he is a winner. In the last 30 games that Penn State has been favored, the Nittany Lions are 28-2 SU and 23-6-1 ATS. Furthermore, in the last 10 games that PSU has been favored by two or more touchdowns, they're a perfect 10-0 SU and sizzling 8-1-1 ATS. Had the 12-team playoff format existed for the past 10 years, Franklin's teams would have made it six out of the last eight seasons. This year, they travel to Wisconsin the week before they host Ohio State. With no Michigan or Oregon on the schedule, Penn State should be able to repeat their 10-win total from the past two seasons and get into the playoffs.

Game to key on: October 5 vs UCLA. With the addition of the four Pac-10 teams to the Big Ten, I expect the established powerhouses of the conference to make a statement. UCLA isn't used to playing a defense of Penn State's caliber weekly. Beaver Stadium has grown slightly since UCLA's last visit in 1967. I expect this line to open around PSU -14 and refer back to the previous 8-1-1 ATS in games of 14 or more points.

Final record prediction: 10-2 Make the CFP

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