2007 Pac-10 Conference Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/26/2007
The story in the Pac-10 is the same as it has been for longer than nine of the teams would like to admit - USC is the class of the field, and everyone else is trying to catch up. Last year the Trojans were as vulnerable as they have been in a long while, but both Cal and Oregon State, the two teams in position to knock them off of their perch, failed to get it done when they needed to. Those two teams should be competitive again this year, and the biggest challenge could come from UCLA. Beyond that, though, there is a pretty severe drop off in quality.
With the exception of John David Booty and potentially Nate Longshore, the conference is full of quarterbacks that have lots of potential but have something to prove this year. Success in the conference will come down to which teams can get their offense on track quickly and get some wins under their belt. There will be some easy wins available in the conference for the better teams if they are able to get their act together.
An interesting subplot in the Pac-10 this year will be the success of two high profile coaches in difficult situations. Dennis Erickson takes over an Arizona State program that has a solid foundation but a world of problems. Jim Harbaugh has the thankless task of trying to turn around Stanford and return them to respectability. One or both of those coaches has the potential to exceed expectations, and that could provide some value in the middle part of the schedule.
Team on the rise:
UCLA. I have been predicting that it is UCLA's time for a few years now, and they always disappoint. I obviously don't learn, because I am doing it again. They were just 7-6 last year, and their bowl loss to Florida State was very disappointing, but things should be better this year. QB Ben Olsen is finally healthy and ready to live up to his potential, and he will have the luxury of a strong defense that should reduce his need to score points. The team has to work on one major thing - it has to learn to win on the road. Six of the team's last seven regular season losses have been away from home. Trips to Oregon State, Arizona and the theoretical road game against USC are all potential pitfalls, but they should have the ability to win them all if they approach them properly.
Teams on the decline:
Washington. For a supposedly talented guy, Ty Willingham sure is a lousy coach. His team was far from scary last year at 5-7, he has just seven wins in two years, and on paper at least he has taken a pretty big step backwards this year. Washington faces a very difficult schedule, and it seems unlikely that they will come out of it in good shape. QB Jake Locker has loads of potential, but he seems doomed by the terrible offensive line that will struggle to protect him and provide opportunities. The Huskies stand a good chance of beating Syracuse and Stanford, but any other victories will be a surprise to me.
Treading water (hasn't done much to improve):
Arizona. Mike Stoops should have stayed in Oklahoma. At least there he got to be called a genius and he didn't have to prove it as a head coach. Arizona has made one important change - they brought in a new offensive coordinator to try to fix their sad offense that managed less than 17 points per game. They should have a decent defense again, but the offense doesn't have the talent or the depth to be more than just adequate. It certainly doesn't help that they have to make trips to Cal, Oregon and USC.
Money player (player to bet on):
John David Booty, QB, USC. The QB followed two Heisman winners, but he certainly didn't seem bothered by the pressure. Despite little real game experience, Booty stepped in and looked, for the most part, like a natural. He put an exclamation mark on his season with a dominant performance against a supposedly stout Michigan defense. This year, the senior is more experienced, well supported at all positions, and poised to have a huge season that will make him millions in the draft.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
Rudy Carpenter, QB, Arizona State. Carpenter was handed an opportunity on a golden platter last season, and he did little to capitalize on the chance. All he did, instead, is get his coach fired. His completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio were significantly worse in his second season. Now Carpenter has to get used to a new system and a new head coach, and I am not willing to bank on a smooth transition.
Important betting trends:
USC rarely struggled to score points, but they often didn't meet public expectations - they were under the total eight times in 13 games. They were also a dismal 3-6 ATS against their own conference. That's pretty much the definition of a public team.
Potential Conference Champ:
USC. The Trojans have to compensate for a lot of impressive lost talent, but, like always, Pete Carroll has found a way to bring in a stunning load of talent to fill the gaps. It won't be a cakewalk, but there is no game on the schedule that the Trojans can't win if they are at, or even close to, their best.
Key games:
Oregon State at California, Oct. 13. If USC or UCLA falter then the winner of this game should be in position to pick up the pieces.
UCLA at USC, Dec. 1. If, and this is a big if, the Bruins live up to their potential then this could be the game that decides which team wins the Pac-10, and potentially more. It could also provide betting value because UCLA won this game last year.
Predicted order of finish:
USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Washington, Stanford.