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2024-25 Ottawa Senators Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/13/2024

Ottawa Senators predictions Brady Tkachuk

Ottawa was one of the most disappointing teams from last year’s campaign. After bringing in Claude Giroux in 2023, the Sens followed that up by adding Jakob Chychrun and Vladimir Tarasenko in hopes of reaching relevance. Unfortunately, last season was anything but good for Ottawa as they finished with just 78 points and a -26-point differential on the season. They played terribly away from home, going 16-23-2 on the road, which really held them back last year as they never got going.

The Senators ranked middle of the pack in GF/G, averaging just 3.05 GF/G, while cashing in on only 18% of their Power Play opportunities. Their Penalty Kill was terrible, as they knocked off just 75.1% of their opponent’s man advantages, which ranked just 29th in the NHL. Brady Tkachuk led the team with 74 points and 37 goals. Tkachuk also finished second in the league with 134 PIM. Center Tim Stutzle was the only other Sens player to reach the 70-point mark, as he finished with 18 goals and 52 assists (team lead). Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux were the only other Ottawa skaters to record more than 20 goals.

The true weakness of this team was the goaltending. Ottawa allowed 3.43 GA/G, which was 28th in the NHL, while their .888 SV% was the worst in the league. Joonas Korpisalo played in 55 games, going 21-26-4 while allowing 3.27 GA/G while his backup Anton Forsberg did not do much better in his 30 appearances, as he went 15-12 and allowed 3.21 GA/G. Both netminders recorded SV%’s of .890.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Ottawa Senators in 2024/25:

Ottawa Senators Key Additions/Losses

Ottawa was busy in the trade market this summer, making all kinds of moves. In all, the Sens shipped away a first-round draft pick and Joonas Korpisalo, along with Mark Kastelic (10 points), Nick Jensen (14 points), Roby Jarventie, Mathieu Joseph (35 points), and Jakob Chychrun (41 points). Defenseman Erik Brannstrom (20 points) and Parker Kelly (18 points) both left for Colorado.

Their highlight of the offseason was the addition of Linus Ullmark, who should immediately boost the goaltending performance from a year ago. In addition to the All-Star goalie, they brought in Noah Gregor (12 points), Nick Jensen (14 points), and Nick Cousins (15 points).

Ottawa Senators X-Factors

Scoring Ability- After shipping off Vladimir Tarasenko at the deadline, the Senators averaged just 2.60 GF/G over the last 23 games of the regular season. Now Jakob Chychrun and Mathieu Joseph are gone, with little offensive boost added over the summer. Linus Ullmark is going to make this team better by guarding the net, but the offense of Ottawa does not look promising.

1st Half Performance- Ottawa will be a fringe team by the time deadline rolls around and the front office will have to make a decision whether or not to buy or sell at the deadline. They will immediately be in the market for anyone who can create scoring chances. However, the Sens will need to stay competitive over the first few months so they can make a run.

Ottawa Senators Goalie Outlook

Linus Ullmark is now suiting up for his third different team after being traded to Ottawa. He was incredible during his time in Boston, allowing just 2.31 GA/G over his three seasons. He is an immediate upgrade to Korpisalo. However, Ullmark’s career high in games played is just 49, meaning they will need to get more starts out of backup goalie Anton Forsberg, who struggled last season, allowing 3.21 GA/G and posting a mere .890 SV%. If Forsberg can return to his 2021/22 form, where he allowed just 2.82 GA/G across 44 starts, then Ottawa should be a lock for the playoffs.

Grade: B-

Ottawa Senators Key Schedule Stretch

April 6th-April 17th: The regular season ends with a very easy stretch for Ottawa, which plays in the Sens favor as they will likely be taking their playoff chances to the end of the season. This stretch includes six games, five of which are on home ice. The lone road game is in Columbus against the lowly Blue Jackets. Their five home games are against Columbus, Montreal, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Carolina. Five of the six games are against teams who should be at or near the bottom of the league standings at this time, while Carolina is the last game of the regular season. This will be huge in determining their playoff chances.

Ottawa Senators Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +3600

Conference Winner: +1900

Division Winner: +1000

To Make the Playoffs- Yes: -102

Vezina Trophy- Linus Ullmark: +1500

James Norris Trophy- Thomas Chabot: +6000

Ottawa Senators Prediction

The goaltending got better, but I still think they will struggle this season. The offensive attack looks a lot weaker on paper, and I do not think they improved 14 points, from a season ago, to hit the over on the season point total. Additionally, I think they will miss the playoffs again this season. They could add at the deadline, but it hurts that they already shipped off their first-round pick to get Ullmark. The netminder does provide good value for the Vezina, especially since he will likely see an uptick in playing time, but that is really the only future worth following for the Sens, who are likely a year away from being a playoff team.

Under 91.5 Team Total Points

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