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2024-25 Orlando Magic Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/14/2024

Orlando Magic predictions Franz Wagner

The Orlando Magic appear to have finally exited their decade-long rebuild. Their fifth-place finish in the Eastern Conference was their highest since 2011, but they were unable to translate their success into a playoff series victory. Orlando is expected to make the postseason again this year. However, can they finally take the next step towards a deep playoff run?

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Orlando Magic Offseason Recap

The Orlando Magic had their best season in a decade last year, so it was understandable that they were relatively quiet in the offseason. A bulk of their roster is still aged 24 or younger and will likely get internally better regardless of the front office’s activity with the rest of the league. 

The most impactful offseason move the Magic made was signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency. The former Denver Nugget brings championship experience with him to Orlando and is the perfect signing for a team like Magic. Caldwell-Pope still has a few good years left in the NBA, and his veteran presence will help guide the young Magic core in high stakes situations. Caldwell-Pope entered the NBA when he was just 20 years old and is now starting his 12th year in the league. Caldwell-Pope is a three point specialist capable of knocking down shots with consistency. He’s shot 40% or higher from behind the arc in three of his last four seasons, and has seen his overall shooting splits gradually rise with each passing year. When he was 25, he shot 39.9% from the floor and 35% from deep. Flash forward 6 years later, and he’s shooting 46.2% and 42.3%, respectively. 

The Magic lost bench players Joe Ingles and Markelle Fultz in free agency. They prioritized giving the rotational minutes to players still developing, which Ingles and Fultz no longer were. The bulk of the Magic’s top 9 remain the same, meaning they should be able to match their defensive intensity from last year. Caldwell-Pope is a fantastic wing defender, and these offseason moves could see the Magic transform into the most dominant defense in the league. 

Orlando Magic Season Expectations

The primary goal for the Magic will be to continue developing their roster. Picking up wins along the way would also be nice, but this team is still one year away from truly being able to compete with the league’s premier teams. Orlando would probably be happy with a top-6 seed and a second round playoff exit, something that signifies they are still a step behind the contenders. 

Orlando had the second-best defensive rating last year, and will only become more dominant this season. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are pesky defenders for Orlando, with Suggs really embodying the Magic way of life. He averaged 1.4 steals per game last year and was a big reason why the Magic generated the most turnovers in the league, with 13.8% of all opponent possessions ending with a turnover. 

The Magic can undoubtedly play lockdown defense, but they still need to find a way to score on the other end. Paolo Banchero is entering his third season in the NBA and will be the offensive leader for the Magic. The 2023 ROY improved on his rookie year last season, scoring 22.6 PPG on 45.5% from the floor. He also chipped in 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists, all four of which are career highs. Banchero is a consistent defender himself, but his offensive impact will determine how far the Magic can go. If Banchero can turn into a true number one option like Jayson Tatum, the Magic have the potential to pull off some upsets this season. 

Orlando Magic Schedule Breakdown

The Magic have a tough start to the season, with seven of their first nine games being played away from home. What that does mean is the Magic have long home stretches over the winter months and have the privilege of spending December 8th until the end of 2024 at home. Their longest road trip starts in late January, when they take a six-game trip featuring matchups against the Heat, Warriors, Kings, and Nuggets. 

Orlando Magic Odds

The Orlando Magic have a regular season win total right in line with their 47-35 record from last season. A 47.5 win total feels pretty fair for the Magic. However, that is saying they didn’t get better in the offseason. On paper, the Magic got much better, as Caldwell-Pope is a perfect signing, and their young talent has had another year of development. However, Orlando’s top players were able to stay pretty healthy last year, meaning unless they do so again the 47 win season will be difficult to match. Orlando is -800 to reach the postseason and have the fifth best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +1800. Their +5000 championship odds feel a little out of reach for a team that hasn’t won a single series, let alone four straight, since 2010. 

In the NBA Cup, the Magic find themselves in a tough group to navigate. They are in East Group A with the Knicks, 76ers, Hornets, and Nets. Orlando has +300 odds to come out on top and will need to go at least 1-1 against the 76ers and Knicks to have any chance at qualification. 

2024-25 Orlando Magic Season Predictions and Best Bets

In the modern day NBA, a dominant defense can carry a team through the regular season. However, without a truly elite scorer, it’s hard to find postseason success. In the last 5 years, the NBA Finals have seen Tatum vs Doncic, Jokic vs Butler, Curry vs Tatum, Durant vs Antetokounmpo, and James vs Butler. You could argue that Banchero is close to the level of Jimmy Butler, but it’s pretty clear the Magic don’t have the superstar needed to win the Eastern Conference. But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. In the regular season, I expect the Magic to improve on their record last year and finish 49-33. They will just surpass their 47.5 wins total, as their strong defense finishes the year as the top unit in the league. Orlando’s ability to stifle the bottom half of the league ensures they are rarely upset, but they lack the explosive scoring to take down the top teams. Orlando will threaten for an NBA title in the future, but they are still too far away to take a shot on any of their longshot futures. 

Top Pick: Orlando Magic Over 47.5 Wins

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