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2024 Oregon Ducks Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Joey House - 8/6/2024

Oregon Ducks football predictions Dillon Gabriel

2023 record: 12-2 SU 10-5 ATS

PPG: 44.2 (2nd of 133)

Opp PPG: 16.5 (9th of 133)

Head Coach: Dan Lanning (22-5 in 2 years)

Oregon Ducks Reg. Season Wins: Over 10.5 +100 Under 10.5 -120

Big Ten Champ. Game Winner +200

Make 2024-2025 CFP -300

Win Nation Title +800

Oregon Ducks 2023 Recap and 2024 Preview

After going 11-2 during the regular season and capping off their final campaign in the Pac-12 with a 45-6 rout of upstart Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl, Oregon finished 8th in the College Football Playoff poll, their 3rd-highest finish in school history.

They were led by fifth-year senior Bo Nix, an Auburn transfer in his second season at the helm of the Ducks. Nix amassed video game numbers (77.4% completion percentage, 4,508 yards, 45 TDs, and only 3 INTs) on his way to a third-place finish in the 2023 Heisman Trophy race.

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As stated above, Oregon leaves the friendly confines of the defense-optional Pac-12 for the defense-first Big Ten, who had the top four teams in total defense last season. However, this move couldn't have come at a better time; with the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, a two-loss Ducks team would still stand an outstanding chance of making the playoffs, unlike the past two years, where their regular season losses killed any hopes of a National Championship.

Oregon Ducks Offense (8 returning starters)

While Nix was eventually drafted in the first round by the Denver Broncos, the Ducks return eight starters on the offensive side of the ball. One of my favorite stats to research at the beginning of the year is offensive line starts, which adds all the previous starts by the returning offensive line. Offensive line chemistry is critical when breaking in a new quarterback. Oregon is blessed with the nation's 9th-most experienced offensive line unit, with 144 career starts.

The new QB replacing Nix is the seasoned veteran Dillon Gabriel, who transfers in from Oklahoma, where he amassed 6,828 yards and 55 TDs with 12 INTs in two seasons. Oregon will be Gabriel's third school, as he started at UCF. Gabriel is 8th on the all-time NCAA passing yardage list with 14,865 yards. By the end of the season, barring a catastrophic injury, he will be second on the all-time list behind Houston's Case Keenum, who racked up 19,217 yards in 57 games with the Cougars.

The Ducks must also replace their leading rusher, Bucky Irving, but junior Jordan James (785 yards rushing, 11 TDs) seems more than capable of handling the main load of carries. The receiving corps took a hit with the drafting of Troy Franklin (81 receptions, 1383 yards, 14 TDs) to the NFL. Oregon, however, doesn't rebuild as much as it replenishes personnel losses. Senior Tez Johnson (86 receptions, 1182, 10 TDs) becomes the focal point. Still, the Ducks return four of their top five receivers and add Evan Stewart through the transfer portal from Texas A&M. With the highly experienced offensive line returning their offensive skill positions will be as lethal as ever.

Oregon Ducks Defense (9 returning starters)

The Ducks' defense allowed only 30 or more points three times last season (the two losses to Washington and a 38-30 Oregon win at Texas Tech). They also held their opponents to a touchdown or less six times.

Their top two defenders in sacks with nine, DL Brandon Dorlus and DB Evan Williams were drafted. Oregon must also replace the five interceptions that DBs Khyree Jackson and Steve Stephens contributed, as they were also drafted this past spring.

The Ducks were big winners on the defensive side of the ball in the transfer portal, picking up DL Derrick Harmon from Michigan State, DB Jabbar Muhammad from Washington, and S Peyton Woodyard from Alabama. These three transfers are projected to step in and become starters, filling the void left by a defense heavily depleted from the NFL Draft.

Oregon Ducks Football Schedule Analysis

Oregon gets to ease into its first Big Ten campaign, opening with an FCS playoff team from a year ago, the Idaho Vandals. Then, they host Boise State. The biggest drawback of the conference re-alignments is the dissolution of rivalries. While the "Civil War" between Oregon and Oregon State isn't being scrapped (yet), instead of playing their traditional grudge match on Thanksgiving weekend, these two arch-enemies will meet on the second Saturday of September. The Ducks' first conference game is against a familiar foe, the UCLA Bruins.

Oregon's season really starts on October 12 when they host Ohio State. This caliber of matchup is precisely what the Big Ten powerbrokers had in mind when they induced the four former Pac-12 teams to defect to the now nationwide Big Ten conference. Ohio State is ranked No. 2 in the preseason, and Oregon is right behind them at No. 3. In years past, this game would have National Championship implications. However, with the expanded CFB Playoff, it will likely have seeding ramifications.

The Ducks don't make their first honest-to-goodness Big Ten road trip until the following week when they travel to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The most challenging part of their schedule, travel-wise, will be visits to Ann Arbor and Wisconsin over a three-week span. Oregon missed Penn State and USC during the regular season.

Oregon Ducks Football Predictions

The schedule-makers were kind to the Ducks in their inaugural season in their new conference. While they play Michigan in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines are a shell of the National Championship team from a year ago and should pose no problem for the high-flying Ducks. Their home conference schedule goes Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Maryland, and they close against Washington before they will likely play in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

The question surrounding Oregon isn't their talent level but the defensive talent they will face every week in their new home. Last season, in the Pac-12, they faced the average of all their opponents' defensive points allowed, which came to 75.5. That average would be 62.6 from their new brethren in the Big Ten.

I also have some reservations about their head coach. He's fantastic for the college football landscape. However, at times, his immaturity seems to get the best of him (see the two failed fourth-down conversions against Washington the past two seasons).

Having said that, Oregon possesses the most talented and dangerous offense in the Big Ten if not the whole country. Points can cover quite a few weaknesses. Oregon has all the tools necessary to make the playoffs and stay there for a while.

Oregon Game to Key On

I think a potential pitfall in their schedule will be the November 16 visit to Camp Randall in Madison, Wisconsin, to play the Badgers. Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is one of the great minds in today's game, and his teams are historically much better in their second season. I expect Oregon to be about a touchdown favorite here. And while I'm not calling for Bucky to pull the outright upset, I think they will do enough to stay within the number.

Prediction: 10-2, make the semi-finals of the CFP

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