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2024 Oklahoma State Cowboys Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Joey House - 8/28/2024

Oklahoma State Cowboys football predictions Alan Bowman

2023 record: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS

PPG: 29.6 (55nd of 133)

Opp PPG: 28.6 (55th of 133)

Head Coach: Mike Gundy (166-79 in 19 seasons)

Oklahoma State 2024 Reg. Season Wins Over 8 -130/Under 8 +110

Make 2024-2025 CFP +650

Win Nation Title +15000

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Oklahoma State Cowboys Football 2023 Recap

After a rocky 2-2 start last season that saw them lose at home to South Alabama, Oklahoma State's season was at the crossroads of success and disaster. Twenty-year head coach Mike Gundy had his team take a turn onto the road of success, and they reeled off five consecutive wins and went 7-1 and earned a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. While they fell short of that title, the Cowboys did defeat Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl to cap off the 8th double-digit win season. With 19 returning starters and a talent-ladened roster (not to mention a noticeably weaker Big 12 with the defection of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC), Cowboy fans believe that 2024 should be the year that Oklahoma State captures its very first Big 12 Championship and automatic berth in the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Offense (10 returning starters)

Last year's Oklahoma State offense was the lowest-scoring Cowboys offense since the 2014 team put up 27.6 ppg en route to a 7-6 record. Gaining yards wasn't the problem, as the Pokes were 27th in the nation with 430.2 yards per game. Turnovers, however, were a significant problem as former Texas Tech/Michigan QB Alan Bowman tossed 14 interceptions to go along with his 3,460 yards and 15 touchdowns. Bowman, who set freshman passing records at Texas Tech, returns for his super-super senior (7th year) season. He has a returning arsenal filled with high-explosive talent, none more so than the RB Ollie Gordon II, who led the nation in rushing with 1,732 yards and was second in the nation with 21 trips to paydirt on the ground. The Cowboys also welcome back WR Brennan Presley, who was tied for 3rd-most receptions in the country with 101. WR Rashod Owens is also back and provides the "big-play" receiver (63 receptions, 895 yards, 14.2 yards per reception, and 5 TDs) to compliment Presley. There will be plenty of holes to run through, as well as time for Bowman to scan the field in the pocket with the 2nd-most experienced offensive line in the nation (214 returning starts). After the poor offensive showing in 2014, Gundy's Cowboys erupted for 39.5 ppg, an improvement of almost two touchdowns. I think a similar transformation will occur this season, and I expect BIG things from this group.

Oklahoma State Defense (9 returning starters)

As is usually the case in the Big 12, defense was optional for the 2023 Cowboys, as they ranked 90th in the nation in defensive scoring (28.6 ppg against) and 122nd in yards allowed per game with 445.7 ypg. You have to go back to 2021 to find the last time a Big 12 team ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Scoring (ironically, it was Oklahoma State with a 9th-place finish at 18.1 ppg). The Cowboys look to drastically improve now that they enter Year 2 of defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo's system. The one highlight of last year's stop-unit was the ability to generate turnovers. They were tied with a slew of teams with 1.7 turnovers generated a game. With the experience returning, the strength generated with learning the defensive scheme and philosophy of Coach Nardo's system, and their ball-hawk ability to generate timely turnovers, Oklahoma State hopes to repeat the Top 10 performance of their 2021 squad.

Oklahoma State Schedule

While the Cowboys' nonconference portion of their schedule may not have the glitz of household-name programs, it should provide them with enough challenge to prepare them for their bid to win the Big 12. They open up by hosting the two-time FCS champs, the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, and Arkansas the following weekend. Oklahoma State stays in-state for their first road game at Tulsa. They should be 3-0 when they start conference play by hosting Utah. The following week, they travel to Manhattan, Kansas, to play Kansas State. Unlike most major programs that play only four or maybe five games away, the Cowboys hit the road six times this season for the first time since 2019.

Predictions for Oklahoma State Cowboys Football

One negative consequence of conference realignment and the expansion of the CFP is the death of some classic college football rivalries. For the first time in 110 years, Oklahoma State will not play its hated in-state rival, the Oklahoma Sooners. However, with the move of the Sooners, as well as Texas, to the SEC, the Cowboys have a fantastic opportunity to collect their very first conference championship in football. I've been a fan of Mike Gundy, even before his "Come after me !!" speech. The former Oklahoma State QB is fifth on the Cowboys' all-time passing yardage list. It is no surprise that he developed the four players ahead of him. His current disciple, Alan Bowman, has more than enough talent to be successful and will thrive after having an entire season with Gundy mentoring him. With the number of talented weapons surrounding him, Bowman could be the ultimate dark-horse candidate for Heisman, as his odds are currently sitting at +25000 at one sportsbook. My biggest concern is consistency or a lack thereof. If they play to their potential every week, Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 and makes the CFP. Their conference slate is front-loaded, so if they drop both games to Utah and Kansas State, it will be up to Gundy to ensure the team doesn't pack it up for the rest of the season. I'm calling for a 10-2 record, with an outside shot of running the table. Their odds of making the CFP and winning the Big 12 (+650 and +750, respectively) are very enticing.

Oklahoma State Football Game to Key On

Oct. 18th at BYU: This will be Oklahoma State's first trip to Provo. And in the high altitude, the Cougars are formidable, with a 23-7 SU record over their last 30 games at home. Plus, it's on a Friday and being played later (9:15 p.m. CDT) than the Cowboys are used to. While Gundy's squads are typically strong as conference road chalk (6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight road games as a favorite), BYU is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten home games as an underdog. This game will be a challenge.

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