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2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/12/2024

Oklahoma City Thunder predictions Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be one of the best NBA teams for the next decade after they meticulously acquired draft capital and future stars over the last several seasons. MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the oldest starter for the Thunder last season at 25 years old. The Thunder are bursting with young talent. However, is it too soon to expect them to compete against proven NBA superstars?

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Oklahoma City Thunder Offseason Recap

The Thunder have all the young talent needed to compete in the NBA, and they brought in some crafty veterans to bolster their current title aspirations. The first move they made was trading Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso with the Chicago Bulls. Giddey played three seasons with the Thunder since being drafted in 2021 and is still only 22 years old. Off-court issues disrupted Giddey's ascension this season, and OKC wisely elected to move on from the Australian player. The Bulls aren’t in a position to compete for the title this season and were more than happy to take Giddey off of OKC’s hands. 

In return, the Thunder have the perfect leader for their young roster. Alex Caruso brings so many intangibles to the basketball court that can’t be measured with stats. His hustle on the defensive end not only elevates his defense, but it makes his teammates better defenders, too. Caruso may only be 30 years old, but he is one of the classiest acts in the entire NBA. He will help shape the young Thunder team both on and off the court. Once you add in the fact that he posted double digit PPG for the first time in his career while shooting 40.8% from deep last season, this trade becomes, no pun intended, a slam dunk for the Thunder. 

In free agency, Oklahoma City scooped up Isiah Hartenstein from the New York Knicks. Hartenstein was expected to be a backup center for the Knicks last year. However, when starting big man Mitchell Robinson went down with injury, he was thrust into the starting role. He was a solid contributor on both ends of the court, but his primary asset was that he was able to defend without fouling. Hartenstein played 75 games last season averaging 25.3 minutes. In those 73 contests, he fouled out only three times and stayed on the court for all 13 of the Knicks playoff games. The Thunder allowed the 8th most free throws last season and the fourth most the season before. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Expectations

The Thunder are in a unique stage of their rebuild. It is clear they have the talent to compete with the league’s best, but they lack the meaningful playoff experience to navigate the difficult situations. Their 57 wins secured them the top seed in the West last season, and their 56.5 win total implies they will be right back at the top this season, too. 

The Thunder have several high profile prospects on their roster, but none as valuable as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 25-year-old Canadian finished second in MVP voting last season and has +500 odds to win the award this season. He possesses an extensive layup package that the league hasn’t seen since prime Kyrie Irving. Gilgeous-Alexander can drive to the hoop and navigate around defenders like no one else in the league and will always be a threat to score 30+ points on a nightly basis. He averaged 30+ PPG for the second consecutive season last year, and there is no reason to believe he won’t eclipse that mark once again. 

The Thunder will want to translate their regular season success into playoff accolades, but there is truly no rush to do so. Their entire team is young, and they have 14 first round and 13 second round picks in the next five years. This team will be competing at the highest level for the next decade. And even though they could win the title this year, developing their talent is still the primary focus. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Schedule Breakdown

The Thunder open up the season with three games in four nights, including two road games against the Nuggets and Bulls. They are rewarded with six straight home games following that set, but then play eight of their next nine on the road. The Thunder have several long road trips and lengthy home stands on their schedule that will allow them to build momentum throughout the season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The Thunder are expected to have a dominant regular season and to carry that momentum into the playoffs. Their 56.5 win total is the highest in the Western Conference and trails only the Celtics 58.5 total. In a similar fashion, the Thunder have the second lowest NBA title odds at +700. Oklahoma City has a young team bursting with talent, but it’s surprising to see them as equally likely to succeed in the regular season as in the playoffs. It would not be unreasonable to see the Thunder eclipse 60 wins this season. However, even though they are the second favorites on the betting odds, it would still be shocking to see the Thunder edge out teams like Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver in the postseason. 

One promising market to attack for the Thunder is in the NBA Cup. They are +120 to finish on top of West Group B which features the Lakers, Suns, Spurs, and Jazz. There is little debate about who the bottom three of the Western Conference are, and the fact the Thunder have two of the Spurs, Jazz, and Trail Blazers will help propel them into the knockout stages. Only one third place team per conference qualifies into the next round, and the Thunder have shown they can pile on the points against weak opposition. Once in the knockout round, their +800 NBA Cup odds will get slashed dramatically. 

2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder Season Predictions and Best Bets

A good general strategy to follow for these young teams is to tail them in the regular season and fade them in the playoffs. The Thunder’s 56.5 win total offer value, but the better odds lie with their seeding in the Western Conference. OKC is +150 to finish with the top seed in the West, but there is much more value with them to finish in the second seed at +340 odds. The Timberwolves, Nuggets, or Mavericks could edge them out for top spot, and this prop gives us solid regular season upside with the Thunder. I expect them to just surpass their win total with a 58-24 record, but I’m confident one Western Conference foe will get 60+ wins. 

OKC is -3000 to qualify for the postseason, but there is absolutely no value at +700 for the Thunder to win the championship. Even if the Thunder have another dominant regular season, they will still be at least +700 to win the NBA championship in a Western Conference bursting with contenders. Enjoy riding with the Thunder in the regular season, then get ready to fade them while their value is at its peak. 

Pick: OKC Thunder Over 56.5 Wins

Top Pick: OKC Thunder to Finish in the Second Seed +340

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