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2024-25 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/28/2024

North Carolina Tar Heels basketball predictions Elliot Cadeau

North Carolina had one of the best regular seasons in the country last season. They dominated their nonconference schedule and picked up wins over #20 Arkansas, #10 Tennessee and #7 Oklahoma. The Tar Heels would then proceed to finish with a 17-3 record in the ACC conference, losing those three games by a combined 12 points. They swept Duke and beat a ranked Clemson team on the road. North Carolina would breeze through the ACC Tournament bracket and find themselves pitted against last year’s Cinderella team in the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack would win the ACC, laying claim to the guaranteed spot as the ACC winner, beating North Carolina by eight. The Tar Heels still had a 1-Seed, and they dominated their first two opponents in 16-Seed Wagner (won by 28) and 9-Seed Michigan State (won by 16). However, their season would end at the hands of 4-Seed Alabama, losing by two in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels had the best offense in the ACC, where they led the conference with 81.9 PPG, 41.1 RPG, and 12.2 offensive RPG. They would also rank in the Top Five in the conference in 3P% and APG. RJ Davis was one of the most prolific scorers last year and led the team with 21.2 PPG, which also ranked 16th in the nation. He shot 39.8% from deep while cashing in on 87.3% of his free-throw attempts. Armando Bacot was second on the team with 14.5 PPG while leading the team with 10.3 RPG and Bacot also shot 40% from beyond the arc. Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG) and Cormac Ryan (11.5) were the other two Tar Heels to average double-digit PPG while Ingram also ranked second on the team with 8.8 RPG.

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North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Key Additions/Losses

The Tar Heels lost a lot of talent this offseason, with three of their top players and scorers moving on to the NBA. After averaging a double-double last season, Bacot is gone, as well as Ingram and Ryan, who also tested the NBA waters. North Carolina lost nearly 50% of its offensive production with the departure of those three as well as their top two rebounders in Bacot and Ingram. In addition to the NBA departures, Paxson Wojcik (8.3 MPG) ran out of eligibility and James Okonkwo (15 games) transferred out of the program and landed with Akron.

After all the losses, North Carolina got to work and brought in three transfers as well as signing a big high school class of five players. They brought in guard Cade Tyson, who averaged 16.2 PPG and 5.9 RPG for Belmont last season while showing consistency everywhere, as he shot over 46% from deep and over 85% from the line. Ven-Allen Lubin is now dressing for his third team in three years as the forward transferred in from Vanderbilt. Lubin averaged 12.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG for the Commodores last season. The Tar Heels also brought in Ty Claude, who should provide veteran depth on the bench. Claude averaged 4.8 PPG last season at Georgia Tech but has showcased his scoring potential in years past as he averaged 15.4 PPG two seasons ago at Western Carolina. In addition to the three transfers comes two five-star recruits. Guard Ian Jackson (8th nationally) and forward Drake Powell (11th nationally) are projected to be the next top tier players for this program. They also brought in three-star center James Brown (120th nationally) as well as Dante Mayo and John Holbrook, two unrated recruits.

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball X-Factors

Star Power- Its not often that a team has four players on a Wooden Award watchlist, but that’s what the Tar Heels have as they head into the new campaign. Jackson and Powell join Davis and Elliot Cadeau on the list of potential Wooden Award recipients. Davis should benefit greatly from the presence of Powell and Cadeau in the starting lineup, while Jackson will give the Tar Heels an incredible spark off the bench. North Carolina has done well to maintain their prominence and is once again showcasing a roster full of star power.

Cade Tyson- One name that is not on the list is the transfer guard from Belmont. As mentioned, Tyson is a proven and consistent scorer but against the ranks of the mid-majors. North Carolina is going to be a great team even if Tyson is a bust. However, if he can continue to score against better competition, he will be a dangerous weapon for the Tar Heels and could be one of the best three-point shooters in the nation. The good news for Tyson is the pressure shouldn’t be too much, as he is surrounded by top tier talent.

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Notable Games

Home- #2 Alabama, #7 Duke

Away/Neutral- #1 Kansas, #21 Florida, #22 UCLA, #7 Duke

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +2500

Final Four: +500

Conference Winner: +360

Wooden Award: RJ Davis- +600

Wooden Award: Ian Jackson- +15000

Wooden Award: Drake Powell- +15000

Wooden Award: Elliot Cadeau- +21000

AP Top 25- 9th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 9th

KenPom- 14th

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Predictions

This North Carolina team is good and deep. Davis has only improved throughout his college career and is one of the best shooters in the country, and he will now be joined by two of the highest rated recruits out of this year’s high school class as well as key transfers. Cadeau should also emerge as one of their better players as well as giving the Tar Heels one of the best backcourts in the country. With all the talent around him, and his ability to find the open guy, Cadeau could lead the country in assists this season. Davis is my pick to win the Wooden award. Though Hunter Dickinson is back for Kansas, Davis could lead the country in scoring and will also have some great compliments around him that will only elevate his game. In addition to Davis winning the Wooden Award, this team has a legit chance at not only reaching the Final Four but also being named champion. Pay attention to the Tar Heels, they will be big moneymakers this season.

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