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NHL Player Awards: Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/8/2024

NHL player awards predictions Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs

The wait is over. The 2024-25 NHL season is here. After a not so exciting Global Series in which the New Jersey Devils swept the Buffalo Sabres in a two-game set, the puck will drop on the remaining 30 NHL teams’ seasons this week. The offseason was hectic, some big names are in new uniforms like Jacob Markstrom, Jonathan Marchessault, and Steven Stamkos, but now all eyes are on the ensuing campaign. Last year we saw a memorable emergence of the Vancouver Canucks that showed they were miles ahead of their expected rebuild, while youngster Connor Bedard lived up to the hype despite dealing with a lengthy injury. And of course we saw another repeat Hart Trophy winner as Nathan MacKinnon took home the leagues MVP award after a 140-point season.

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Here are the winners, of the major awards, from last season:

Hart Trophy – 2023/24 Winner: Nathan MacKinnon

Rocket Richard Trophy – 2023/24 Winner: Auston Matthews

Norris Trophy – 2023/24 Winner: Quinn Hughes

Vezina Trophy – 2023/24 Winner: Connor Hellebuyck

Calder Trophy – 2023/24 Winner: Connor Bedard

Jack Adams Award – 2023/24 Winner: Rick Tocchet (VAN)

Who will take home these awards this season?

Hart Trophy

Top Three Odds:

  1. Connor McDavid +150
  2. Nathan MacKinnon +500
  3. Auston Matthews +850

It is no surprise to see these three lead the list as the favorites to take home the NHL MVP award this season. Collectively, this trio has won the award every year since 2020 with MacKinnon winning last year, McDavid winning in 2021 and 2023, and Matthews winning in 2022. All three remain on playoff caliber squads and all three remain in their prime. All three have incredible supporting casts, making it a bit easier for them to put up the big numbers. If anyone were to break the four-year streak this trio has, it would be Jack Hughes (+1100) or Nikita Kucherov (+1800). However, I really like MacKinnon to take home the award again this season. Colorado is shaping up to be one of the best teams in the NHL, even better than Edmonton, and MacKinnon has seen his numbers steadily increase as he enters his 12th season in the NHL. In 2022-23 he set a career high in points, goals, and assists (111/42/69) and then followed that up by shattering his previous career marks in all three categories (140/51/89). It also helps that MacKinnon will be getting Artturi Lehkonen back to join him and Miko Rantanen on the top line. Look for another 110+ points and 45+ goals out of MacKinnon as he is the center of the best line in hockey.

Winner: Nathan MacKinnon +500

Rocket Richard Trophy

Top Three Odds:

  1. Auston Matthews -115
  2. David Pastrnak +550
  3. Leon Draisaitl +750

Again, no surprise to see Auston Matthews atop this list as he has taken home this award in three of his last four seasons. Matthews has averaged 56.3 goals over his last three seasons and is coming off his career high mark of 69 goals last season. Draisaitl and Pastrnak are no where close to this three-year average with both skaters, averaging 49.3 goals per season. Draisaitl has not tallied more than 55 goals in a season, which is below Matthews’ 56.3 goal average, while Pastrnak has one season in which he recoded 61 goals. The one thing Pastrnak has in his favor is he is a bit more durable than Matthews. However, this has been and will continue to be the Auston Matthews award for the foreseeable future.

Winner: Auston Matthews -115

Norris Trophy

Top Three Odds:

  1. Cale Makar +230
  2. Adam Fox +600
  3. Quinn Hughes +600

Last year’s winner, Quinn Hughes, led all defensemen in points with 92. He was also fourth in the league in +/- rating with a +38 rating. Now it is Cale Makar who is the heavy favorite to win the award, again. Makar won the award back in 2022 after he tallied 86 points and a +/- rating of +48. Adam Fox, as well as Roman Josi (+1200), have won the award in recent years, making this one of the more exciting player award races. Josi might see an uptick in his offensive production with all the additions the Predators made in the offseason, while Makar plays behind the best line in the league. The supporting casts for Fox and Hughes are a tier down compared to the other two blueliners. Because of what is around him, the new feel in Nashville, and his proven ability to consistently produce in this league, I am going with Roman Josi to steal this award this season.

Winner: Roman Josi +1200

Vezina Trophy

Top Three Odds:

  1. Connor Hellebuyck +600
  2. Jeremy Swayman +600
  3. Igor Shesterkin +600

Connor Hellebuyck won his second Vezina Trophy last season after posting elite numbers. He ranked second, amongst goalies with 50 or more starts, in GA/G, as he allowed just 2.39 GA/G. He also led all starting goalies with a .921 SV%. He was the biggest contributor to the Jets as their offense was average, but they still found a way into the playoffs. As for this season, Hellebuyck is tied with Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin as the favorites for the Vezina. Hellebuyck has averaged 63.3 starts over the last three seasons, while neither Swayman nor Shesterkin have ever started or appeared in more than 60 games in the season. The increased workload helps Hellebuyck’s chances of winning his third Vezina. It is worth noting that Swayman has lost his counterpart in Linus Ullmark. And now with Jonas Koorpisalo as his backup, Swayman will almost certainly see an uptick in his starts this season compared to the rest of his career. Shesterkin’s numbers, though elite, have been worsening over the last two seasons, and there is a lot of noise around his contract situation, which could be an added distraction for the netminder. The Jets are not the same team as they were last season, but if Hellebuyck produces they will find themselves back in the playoff mix and with that Hellebuyck will likely take home his third Vezina Trophy.

Winner: Connor Hellebuyck

Calder Trophy

Top Three Odds:

  1. Matvei Michkov +250
  2. Macklin Celebrini +450
  3. Logan Stankoven +550

Matvei Michkov (19), Macklin Celebrini (18), and Logan Stankoven (21) are the three favorites to be this year’s Calder Trophy recipient. At first glance, Stankoven has tremendous value at +550, as he is the only one with ice time, and it went really well for the youngster. Stankoven appeared in 24 regular season games for Dallas and produced 14 points. He also appeared in 19 playoff games for Dallas, where he tallied eight points. Michkov and Celebrini are highly touted prospects, more so than Stankoven, and are expected to produce immediately. Celebrini will lead the Sharks top line alongside William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli, giving him the best supporting cast in his pursuit of the Calder Trophy. Michkov will be on the second line for the Flyers with Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost while Stankoven will be on the second line for the Stars with Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene. With all the producers on Dallas’ roster, I do not think Stankoven will win the award. It should be an incredible two horse race between Michkov and Celebrini, but I will give the edge to Celebrini as his numbers should be juiced as one of the few producers on the Sharks.

Winner: Macklin Celebrini +450

Jack Adams Award

Top Three Odds:

  1. Sheldon Keefe (NJD) +700
  2. Travis Green (OTT) +800
  3. Andrew Brunette (NSH) +900

Sheldon Keefe finds himself as the odds on favorite to win the Jack Adams Award just months after his firing from the Toronto Maple Leafs. He landed in a perfect situation, as the Devils really bought in over the summer months when they acquired Markstrom from the Flames, which immediately boosted the Devils into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. I think Ottawa is still a year away from being playoff caliber team. And while they could be aggressive at the deadline, I don’t think Travis Green is the best pick for the Jack Adams. Andrew Brunette also has great value at +900, as his Predators team greatly improved this offseason adding Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Stamkos, and Brady Skjei. Brunette’s squad overachieved last season and are a whole lot better heading into this campaign. Give me Brunette to win the Jack Adams as he leads a Nashville team who can cause a lot of chaos in the Central Division and in the playoffs to follow.

Winner: Andrew Brunette +900

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