NFL Week 1 Best Bets with Betting Odds and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/28/2024

NFL Week 1 best bets Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks

We are just over a week away from the 2024 NFL opener/AFC Title game rematch. The only difference is the game will be played in Kansas City. The premier matchups don't end there. The next night, we are treated to an NFC showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers down in Brazil. The city of Sao Paulo plays host to the first-ever NFL game played in South America. I'm leaning towards the under 49 points as this is Week 1, a primetime game, and on a continent where the league has yet to venture.

Many eyes will be on the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, who makes his first start for the Chicago Bears opposite Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans. This is the first season Tennessee will have to play without former head coach Mike Vrabel and future Hall of Fame running back Derrick Henry for the first time in eight years.

The Houston Texans are one of only two road betting favorites in Week 1. It’s less than a field goal, though, so this may be worth a play. Let’s get to our best bets for Week 1.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Week 1 Best Bets

Denver Broncos (+5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-5)

Point Total: 42

Moneyline

Broncos: +200

Seahawks: -240

We have a small point total and a wide point spread. I like the Broncos here with the 5 points. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has a style not only suited for his new head coach, Sean Payton, but also suited towards his immediate success, within reason, as a rookie quarterback in the NFL. He will primarily move the ball down the field slowly. However, don't sleep on this receiving corps. second-year stud Marvin Mims Jr. could have a breakout season in 2024.

On the other side, the Seahawks are going with Geno Smith once more at quarterback. The 33-year-old from Miami was mediocre last year, and I expect the same this season. The team will be without head coach Pete Carroll for the first time in 15 years.

For the pick, if Denver can stay within 10, I like the rookie to lead them to garbage points if needed.

Pick: Broncos (+5) (-110)

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

Point Total: 49

Moneyline

Texans: -140

Colts: +120

The 2024 Houston Texans, if we were sticking to the NFL sharp betting playbook, would be a team we would fade heavily. They are at the ultimate sell-high moment, with a 2nd-year star quarterback with more offseason hype than any team. I have to be honest, though. It never crossed my mind, however, to bet against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans this year.

We will see what happens as the season plays out. However, as of right now, this team is loaded, with an outside shot of making the AFC Championship and maybe even the Super Bowl.

The Colts are perennially an okay team, and I don't expect much different from them in 2024. I can't look away from that pretty price tag of just (-140) for a Texans win, Week 1 in Indy.

Pick: Texans Moneyline (-140)

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Point Total: 49

Moneyline

Packers: +125

Eagles: -145

I don't think the NFL is that much different of a league than it was last year at this point. If that's true, we can assume that unders, especially those in primetime games played in first-time locations, will be prevalent throughout the first half of the season.

These two defenses were top six in the league last season. Let's hope they lock it down and we see an exciting finish of 20-17.

Pick: Under 49 Points (-110)

Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ New York Giants (+1)

Point Total: 41

Moneyline

Vikings: -120

Giants: +100

I'm not going to complicate this one too much. I am higher on Minnesota than most this year, primarily due to my trust in Sam Darnold to exceed expectations. If he can spread the ball around in the first half and get the Vikings to a two-score lead, the crowd will calm, and hopefully, the better team will come out on top.

Pick: Vikings Moneyline (-120)

More Week 1 Betting Odds

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Point Total: 46.5

Moneyline

Ravens: +125

Chiefs: -145

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (-3)

Point Total: 49

Moneyline

Jaguars: +138

Dolphins: -158

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Point Total: 41

Moneyline

Steelers: +136

Falcons: -156

Carolina Panthers (+4) @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

Point Total: 40

Moneyline

Panthers: +175

Saints: -205

New England Patriots (+9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9)

Point Total: 40.5

Moneyline

Patriots: +345

Bengals: -425

Tennessee Titans (+4) @ Chicago Bears (-4)

Point Total: 44.5

Moneyline

Titans: +175

Bears: -205

Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Point Total: 48

Moneyline

Cardinals: +205

Bills: -245

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

Point Total: 42.5

Moneyline

Raiders: +158

Chargers: -178

Washington Commanders (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Point Total: 42.5

Commanders: +150

Buccaneers: -170

Moneyline

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Point Total: 43

Moneyline

Cowboys: +120

Browns: -140

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Point Total: 51

Moneyline

Rams: +155

Lions: -175

New York Jets (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Point Total: 44

Moneyline

Jets: +165

49ers: -190

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NFL Week 1 Best Bets with Betting Odds and Predictions

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