NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Advice and Predictions
The first three weeks of survivor pools this season have been devastating. In most leagues, around 5% of entries are still alive, after the heavy favorites got upset over and over again in the first three weeks of the season. Favorites of 5.5 or more points, which are usually popular survivor pool picks, are just 6-10 this season. That is not their against the spread record, which is 2-14, but their straight up moneyline record. Last week, only the Bills and Jets won as 5+ point favorites, as the Bengals (-8), 49ers (-7.5), Buccaneers (-6.5), Browns (-6), and Raiders (-5.5) all lost outright. The underdogs have been barking all year, and this will be another tough week to survive. Here are your week 4 survivor pool picks, ranked from strongest to weakest selection.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) Over Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City is the best survivor pool pick to make this week. It’s always a risk to use up a team as strong as the Chiefs. However, at this stage of the season, it must be done. Kansas City is taking on a Chargers team that will likely be without Justin Herbert. The Chiefs defense is an elite NFL unit, and will prevent the Chargers from getting any momentum going on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) Over New York Giants
This certainly feels like a must-win game for the Cowboys, and they will not be taking their foot off the gas on Thursday night. There haven’t been any issues with the Cowboys offense, and they will easily put up 20+ against the Giants. They have been losing games thanks to their poor defensive play, but an easy matchup against Daniel Jones will get their season back on track.
New York Jets (-7) Over Denver Broncos
If you are still alive this week, there is a good chance you used the Jets last week, making them ineligible for selection. If you didn’t, the Jets are a great choice against the Broncos. New York’s defense rebounded nicely from a slow start and will do a great job at shutting down the Broncos aerial attack. New York hasn’t done anything remarkable on offense, but they have been able to consistently move the football, which will be enough for the win.
San Francisco 49ers (-10) Over New England Patriots
This is one the 49ers will not lose. It doesn’t matter if a bulk of their offense is injured; they will find a way to win against the Patriots. The 49ers will have a strong defense, and there really won’t be a better time to use them this season. A home game against a bottom tier team is the best time to use a Super Bowl favorite.
Detroit Lions (-4) Over Seattle Seahawks
The Lions are a safe survivor pool pick for week 4, as an unproven Seahawks team visits Detroit. Fading the 3-0 Seahawks may be a daunting task on paper, but a favorable schedule to start the season is the only reason Seattle is still undefeated. Detroit’s offense will finally start clicking, and the Lions will move to 3-1 on the year.
Tennessee Titans (-1) Over Miami Dolphins
It is a daunting task to trust the 0-3 Titans with your precious survivor pool life, but that could be the smartest move in week 4. Miami has absolutely nobody to play quarterback, and a strong Titans defense will not make it easy for the Dolphins. Tennessee still has plenty to work on, but a few red zone turnovers have cost them victories this year. Assuming they clean that up, they will beat the Dolphins on Monday night.
Baltimore Ravens (-2) Over Buffalo Bills
The one-man army of Josh Allen will finally taste defeat this week. Baltimore let their concentration slip late against the Cowboys in week 3, but that shouldn’t distract you from their otherwise dominant performance. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can keep the ball out of Allen’s hands, and a strong Ravens defense will find a way to slow him down.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) Over Carolina Panthers
The Bengals are still winless on the season, and this is a good time to use them in a favorable matchup. Carolina used some Dalton magic to beat the Raiders last week, but that dominant play cannot be expected to continue. The Bengals simply must win this game. And even on short rest, they will pick up the W.
New Orleans Saints (+1.5) Over Atlanta Falcons
The Saints offense will shred apart the Falcons, giving them a crucial NFC South victory. Atlanta’s offense has looked fragmented all season, and they will need to be perfect to match the Saints efficiency. Home field can only get a team so far, as the Saints cruise to a surprisingly sweat-free victory.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) Over Cleveland Browns
The Raiders defense has carried them to victories so many times before, and this is a prime opportunity to do so once again. The Browns have looked lost on offense. And with Miles Garrett likely to miss this game, their defense will be far less lethal too. Las Vegas will generate turnovers from Deshaun Watson, and that will be enough to seal the victory.
Houston Texans (-6) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
This will be a popular pick this week, but it is relatively low on my confidence scale. Jacksonville will be playing desperate football, and they have gotten extremely unlucky through the first three weeks. Divisional matchups always bring out the best in the underdogs. And while this will be close, Houston will still pull out the win. CJ Stroud has been able to navigate ‘trap games’ in the past, and there is no reason to doubt him now.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings will be thrilled with their 3-0 record, but all good things must eventually come to an end. The return of Jordan Love will inspire the Packers offense, which has learned to dominate the run game in his absence. These historic NFC North rivals always bring out the best in one another, but this feels like the game Sam Darnold collapses.
Washington Commanders (+4) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Commanders offense has been the best in the league over the last two weeks, scoring on 13 consecutive drives. Jayden Daniels appears to be their future and is suddenly their present too. Arizona hasn’t shown the backbone on defense to shut down the Commanders and will fall to the bottom of the NFC West with a defeat.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) Over Indianapolis Colts
A strong Steelers defense has allowed them to start the year 3-0, and it’s hard to see their game against the Colts going any differently. They’ve allowed just 26 points this season. And while their offense is average, that is still enough to pick up wins. Indianapolis will be hoping Anthony Richardson can return to his early-season form last year, but the Steelers are the way to go here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles
The Buccaneers match up nicely against the Eagles, but this is probably one that should be left alone. Tampa Bay has the physicality to play the Eagles game. However, with so much uncertainty here, there is no reason to tempt fate in your survivor pool.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) Over Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams will eventually have a good game, but it may have to wait another week. The Rams defense stepped up to allow for their offensive comeback against the 49ers and will shut the door on Williams. Chicago will eventually explode, and I wouldn’t touch this one, but the slight edge goes to the Rams.
Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs Over Los Angeles Chargers
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent NFL Survivor Pool Picks
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 12: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 11: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 10: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 9: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 7: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Advice and Predictions
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Advice and Predictions