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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/17/2024

NFL survivor pool picks Week 3 Aaron Rodgers New York Jets

The first two weeks have been quite the roller coaster in survivor pools, with more than half the entries being eliminated. The biggest favorites of Week 2 were the Ravens (-9.5), Lions (-7), Chargers (-6.5), Cowboys (-6.5), Texans (-6.5), Eagles (-6) and 49ers (-6). Only the Chargers and Texans won in that list, with the other five heavy favorites being outright upset in Week 2. 

It’s now time to move onto Week 3, where there are only two 7+ point favorites to choose from. This will be another difficult week to navigate, and here are the top survivor pool selections, ranked from most to least confident. 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) Over Denver Broncos

The Buccaneers are a safe choice in Week 3, and the Broncos will be unable to match their offensive output in Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have been lighting it up offensively, and a 3-0 start for the Buccaneers is the safest play for this week. However, with a pair of games against the Panthers and a matchup against the Giants still on tap this season, we will keep the Buccaneers in our back pocket this week. 

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) Over LA Rams

It is always risky taking the road team in a divisional matchup, but the shorthanded Rams will be helpless against San Francisco. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are both on the sidelines for an extended period of time, leaving the Rams extremely shorthanded in the pass catching department. The 49ers are usually a safe pick in survivor pools, and this week is no exception. 

Cleveland Browns (-6) Over New York Giants

Our selection this week will be the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland doesn’t have any slam dunk picks left on their schedule, and there will never be a better time than now to use them up. Their defense is strong enough to contain someone like Daniel Jones, and this feels like a ‘get right’ game for the Browns offense. The Giants poor offense has taken the spotlight off their abysmal defense, and the Browns will have no problems steamrolling New York in Week 3. 

Seattle Seahawks (-5) Over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have used their electric offense to overcome their defensive shortcomings, but that will not be the case here. Geno Smith and the Seahawks will consistently move the ball on offense and are another good choice this week. Seattle has already gone through the easiest portion of their schedule, making this one of the last good weeks to use them up. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) Over Washington Commanders

The Bengals are the biggest favorites of the week, but there are a few reasons they aren’t at the top of the list. Primetime games frequently produce surprising results, and the Commanders have pulled off several high-profile primetime upsets in the last few years. Joe Burrow is still coming off injury and may not be at 100% health. The Bengals will probably still get the win, but there are a few alarm bells ringing in this one. 

Houston Texans (-2.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold may have played well through the first two games, but he is not suddenly a good quarterback. The Vikings will eventually come crashing down to earth, and a strong Texans team will be the ones to make that happen. CJ Stroud is determined to secure a good playoff spot for the Texans, and picking up road wins like this is how you do it. 

New York Jets (-6.5) Over New England Patriots

Thursday night games are a good way to get the sweat of a survivor pool out of the way, and the Jets are a reasonable choice this week. New England has reigned terror over the Jets for the last two decades, and it is finally time for the Jets to get some revenge on national television. It is still risky to put your survivor pool life in the hands of Aaron Rodgers at this stage, but the Jets are a well-built team capable of getting the victory. 

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

There is no reason to use the Bills this week, as there will be many better chances throughout the season. Jacksonville will be desperate to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to start the year, but the Bills are simply too powerful to step in front of at home. Josh Allen has bailed his team out countless times before, and he will do so once again on Monday night. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) Over Tennessee Titans

The Packers have shown the NFL they cannot be ignored without Jordan Love, and they will run the football against the Titans this weekend. The Packers are a decent pick this week, as the Titans boneheaded moves on offense will give Green Bay several opportunities to put them away. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) Over Atlanta Falcons

The NFL doesn’t want to see the Chiefs drop a primetime game against the Falcons, and they will do everything in their power to keep their golden boy undefeated. The Chiefs are a strong football team. And after a few questionable refereeing decisions in recent games, they are still undefeated. The Falcons pulled off the last second upset against the Eagles last week, but lightning will not strike twice for Atlanta. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) Over Chicago Bears

The Colts aren’t a bad pick this week, as they will beat the Bears at home on Sunday. Anthony Richardson has been playing well, and the Colts have the size and strength in the lines to disrupt the Bears. Caleb Williams is looking for his first touchdown in the NFL. And while he will get that this weekend, it won’t be part of a victory for Chicago. 

Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) Over Carolina Panthers 

Whoever the Panthers play will be a popular pick each week, but this is one you must pass on. Andy Dalton is going to be starting for Carolina, and a new quarterback always gives teams a little extra lift. The Raiders pulled off a huge upset against the Ravens and may come into this one a little complacent. They have the overall quality to get the win, but this is screaming ‘trap game’ and we cannot put our lives on the line with Las Vegas this week. 

Arizona Cardinals (+3) Over Detroit Lions

I successfully faded the Lions as 7-point favorites last week, and will be fading them again here. Detroit is expected to beat the Cardinals on the road. However, after what we saw from Arizona last week, there is no reason to touch this game. I give the slight edge to the Cardinals due to their home field advantage, and the rising belief that they can compete in the NFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) Over LA Chargers

The Steelers hardnosed defense will win them this game. Mike Tomlin appears to have done it again, turning a bottom feeder into a competitive football team. The Chargers have their first 2-0 start in 10 years, but the win streak will end there when they visit the Steelers across the country. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) Over New Orleans Saints

There is no reason to touch this game, as the overperforming Saints can certainly pull off the upset against the Eagles. Philadelphia looked good against the Falcons, only to lose on a dropped pass, and a few brilliant Kirk Cousins throws. If they held on in that game, they’d be relatively large favorites against the Saints. I give them the slight edge, but there are much better options out there. 

Dallas Cowboys (+1) Over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens will be desperate for a win, but that doesn’t always translate to winning football. Dallas will bounce back at home, but this isn’t one to mess with in a survivor pool. 

Survivor Pool pick of the week: Cleveland Browns Over New York Giants

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