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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/3/2024

NFL survivor pool picks Week 1 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

The survivor pool can be one of the most exciting methods of betting on the NFL. Survivor pools have been around since before the days of single game betting, as their simple -- yet challenging -- format has made them a staple of the NFL. The concept is simple: Each week, select one team to win outright on the moneyline. It doesn’t matter the odds or spread, as long as the team you selected wins, you ‘survive’ and move on to the next week. However, there is a catch. You can only select each team once per season, and once you use a team, there is no way to get them back. In the opening week of the NFL season, all 32 teams are available for selection. Let’s say you take the Kansas City Chiefs to win, in week 2, you will only have 31 teams remaining to choose from. The first few weeks can be straightforward. However, as the list of available teams starts dwindling, it can be very difficult to find a new winner each week. I will be breaking down the top survivor pool picks all season long and will be giving out insight on how to navigate this difficult task ahead. Week 1 is full of razor-tight matchups, and here are your survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident. 

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Buffalo Bills (-6) Over Arizona Cardinals 

We will be using the Bills straight off the bat here, as their difficult upcoming schedule, combined with a lack of better options in Week 1, makes them the pick. Josh Allen and the Bills will need to take care of business against weaker teams, as they have a tough division, and a tough schedule after finishing first last year. A loss to the Cardinals would be detrimental to their end of season goals. And while the Bills may not be the powerhouse they once were, they are still more than good enough to beat up on the lowly Cardinals. 

Seattle Seahawks (-6) Over Denver Broncos

The Seahawks are another nice selection to start off the season, as fading the Broncos will be a solid strategy all season long. Seattle won’t be favorites most weeks, making them a good choice here. As long as Geno Smith takes care of the football and doesn’t turn it over, it’s hard to imagine the Denver offense doing much the other way. We will be playing it safer with the Bills this week, but Seattle is a smart Week 1 selection to make too. 

New Orleans Saints (-4) Over Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off a 2-15 season where they didn’t even get the first pick thanks to their Bryce Young trade last season. That is not a good recipe heading into the season, and the Saints defense will stifle Young and the Panthers in Week 1. New Orleans has problems of their own, but they are still a much more complete team compared to Carolina. There won’t be many better chances to use the Saints this season, and they are another solid choice to kick off your survivor pool journey. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) Over New England Patriots

The Patriots will be another good team to fade this season, but we can’t put our survivor pool life in the hands of Joe Burrow at this stage of the season. The Bengals will have other opportunities to be chosen this season, and we want to see Burrow in action before we pull the trigger. Burrow has been hurt all offseason and has taken limited snaps heading into the year. A hungry Jacoby Brissett will look to lead the upset for New England. And while I still expect the Bengals to win, there are better options out there this week. 

Atlanta Falcons (-3) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Falcons will look to show off their shiny new toy in Kirk Cousins in week 1. Cousins gives the Falcons some stability at quarterback, something they have been desperate for over the last decade. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh couldn’t be further from a stable quarterback, as Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are both prone to turnovers and blow-up games. Mike Tomlin can usually gut out wins when he shouldn’t, but the Steelers will start the year off 0-1 in Atlanta. 

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) Over New York Giants

Both of these teams don’t have many aspirations this season, as the Vikings have lost QB Kirk Cousins, while the Giants have lost RB Saquon Barkley, their two best players. However, in week 1, the Vikings are a decent selection. Minnesota has the more complete roster, and even lowly Sam Darnold can outplay Daniel Jones. The Vikings have the benefit of Justin Jefferson on their roster, and he will be eager to make an impact regardless of who is throwing him the ball. 

San Francisco 49ers (-4) Over New York Jets

The 49ers will be near the top of this list every week, and there is never a bad time to pull the trigger with them in a survivor pool. The Jets are expected to improve compared to last season. However, expecting Aaron Rodgers to be in MVP form after the injury he suffered is simply unrealistic. The 49ers will cruise to a victory, but there is no reason to use them at this stage of the season. 

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) Over Cleveland Browns

It’s confusing to see the Cowboys come in as underdogs in this one, but they will be pulling out the victory regardless of the spread. The Browns offensive line is already heavily injured, leaving a prone DeShaun Watson one hit away from a career-ending injury. Watson has been unable to bring his Houston magic with him to Cleveland, and it’s hard to imagine the Browns beating Dallas to kick off the season. There will be better opportunities to use the Cowboys this season, but they are still a good choice this week. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) Over Las Vegas Raiders

A little Minshew Magic could always leave this Chargers pick in jeopardy. However, more often than not, the Chargers prevail. Minshew and Davante Adams will link up for some highlight reel catches, but a complete effort from a broken Raiders roster is too much to ask. The Chargers have failed to live up to expectations in recent seasons, but this is a game they can absolutely win. 

Houston Texans (-2.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

I like the Texans a lot to win this week, but there are a few alarm bells ringing in this matchup. Taking the road team in a divisional matchup is always a red flag, as weaker teams tend to still turn up for their divisional matchups. The Texans are one of the favorites to win the AFC outright and will need to take care of business against the Colts if they want to challenge for the top seed. This game will be a lot closer than expected, but the Texans will grind out a much-needed victory. 

Detroit Lions (-4.5) Over LA Rams

The Lions and Rams are expected to put on a show Sunday night, and the advantage goes to Detroit in this all-offense affair. The Rams have the veteran presences to make another playoff run, but the Lions have a different mentality heading into the season. It is truly Super Bowl or Bust for the Lions. And after they came out and beat the Chiefs to kick things off last year, it would surprise no one if they started off 1-0 once again.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles 

The NFL heads to Brazil on Friday night, and it will be the Packers that start off their season with a victory. Philadelphia has added Saquon Barkley to their offense, and the former Giant will make an instant impact for a team that already dominates in the trenches. However, this Green Bay team has legitimate playoff hopes, and a victory over the Eagles will go a long way in claiming the NFC North title. It’s a tough one to call, but the slight edge goes to the Packers. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Over Miami Dolphins

There is no reason to touch this game this week. While I expect the Jaguars to pull off the upset, Jacksonville will have several easier matchups this season. The Dolphins have the potential to blow up the scoreboard offensively, but they can just as easily get burned on defense. Jacksonville should get the win, but there are plenty of better options out there. 

Chicago Bears (-4.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Bears may find their way on to a few people’s survivor pool lists, but not this one. The Titans have plenty of upset potential, as they have a balanced offense filled with NFL stars that have proven themselves on other teams. The Bears are one of the hardest teams to predict this season and should not be touched in survivor pools until we see what Caleb Williams will do in the NFL. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) Over Washington Commanders

The Buccaneers have home field advantage here, which is the only reason they are getting the nod. Washington has the potential to pull off some upsets this season, and the league is eager to see what Jayden Daniels can do for them. However, the slight advantage goes to the Buccaneers, as they have proven what they can do, and have the benefit of home field to kick things off. 

Baltimore Ravens (+3) Over Kansas City Chiefs

Please do not take either of these teams. These are two of the most valuable teams to have in your pocket in survivor pools, and there is absolutely no reason to take either of them here. Slight edge to the Ravens, but stay away at all costs. 

Teams Used: None

Survivor Pool Pick: Buffalo Bills Over Arizona Cardinals

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