2024 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
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There is no better feeling than watching your NFL regular season win total slowly come to fruition. Compared to the single game market, there are rarely bad beats over the course of the NFL regular season. If you can correctly identify an over or undervalued franchise, the NFL regular season win total market can be one of the most profitable all season long. The win totals for the 2024-25 NFL season have been released, and here are your early looks for all 32 teams.
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Arizona Cardinals: 6.5 Wins, Last season 4-13
The Cardinals are once again expected to be outside a playoff position. However, with Kyler Murray healthy for this season, they may be one of the dark horses this year in the NFL. The Seahawks and Rams haven’t made any major upgrades, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see an unlucky Cardinals roster gut out a few divisional wins. Murray needs to step up for Arizona, and I’m expecting a better season for the Cardinals. It won’t be by much, but this one is an OVER.
Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Wins, Last season 7-10
The Falcons are expected to have their best season in the last decade, as Kirk Cousins has given them stability at the quarterback position. They have a talented offense, underrated defense, and a relatively easy schedule this season. However, a 3-win increase may be a little too much to ask. Atlanta made headlines by drafting Penix Jr. in the first round, failing to upgrade some weaker positions on their roster. They will improve from last year, but a record hovering around the .500 mark is the most likely outcome. UNDER
Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins, Last season 13-4
The Ravens have an extremely strong defense to pair with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The Ravens have been hit with injuries in recent years. However, if they can stay healthy, they can absolutely post 12+ wins for the second straight season. Baltimore faces off against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, and Bills in the first 5 weeks of the season, but the second half of the campaign features much easier opponents. As long as they are 3-2 or better after 5 weeks, 12 wins will be well within their reach. OVER
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins, Last season 11-6
The Bills were once again unable to translate their regular season success into playoff accolades, and they are expected to have another successful campaign this year. However, the Bills needed to win 5 straight games to close out the year with an AFC East title. Their schedule is once again difficult, and expecting 11+ wins is just too much to ask for Buffalo at this stage. UNDER
Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Wins, Last season 2-15
Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers struggled last season, coming dead last, but traded away their first overall pick last year. Unlike other tanking teams, there is no real light at the end of the tunnel for Carolina. Their offensive line is in shambles, and Young will struggle once again to put wins on the board for his team. This is the second lowest win total in the league, and it should honestly be even lower. UNDER
Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins, Last season 7-10
The Bears got the rare opportunity to select first overall, despite finishing with a respectable record. Caleb Williams will instantly transform the Bears into a fringe playoff team, and they can absolutely finish above .500 in his rookie season. Chicago has a deep lineup. And like we saw with the Texans last season, a quick turnaround out of a rebuild is possible. They will probably fall short of the NFC North title, but there will be plenty of positives to take away at the end of the year. OVER
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
The Bengals were without quarterback Joe Burrow for the latter half of the season, and they can expect a better year with their star signal caller back in the lineup. Burrow elevates this team into a true Super Bowl contender, and 11 wins is absolutely something the Bengals can achieve. They finished 4th in the AFC North last year, ensuring an easier schedule for the upcoming season. OVER
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Wins, Last season 11-6
Cleveland rode an incredible defense to gut out 11 wins last year, despite having a revolving door at the quarterback position. They got lucky to avoid major defensive injuries, but this team proved they can seriously compete with the league’s best teams. This win total is more than low enough for the Browns to finish above .500 once again. OVER
Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 Wins, Last season 12-5
The Dallas Cowboys are a solid football team, but a few major roster changes could see them slip down the pecking order this year. They lost major defensive players to divisional rivals and have a tough schedule after winning the NFC East last season. A solid 9-8 or 10-7 season is on the cards, as 11 wins is a little too many to expect from the Cowboys. UNDER
Denver Broncos: 5.5 Wins, Last season 8-9
The Broncos fan base was not happy with an 8-9 season. And even though a lot went wrong for Denver, a strong defense earned them a few crucial wins. The Broncos won’t be challenging for a playoff spot, but 5.5 wins is way too low for a team with several talented players. Russell Wilson has moved on, but it’s not like he was putting this team on his back last year. Denver has a solid defense and a team filled with young, and hungry players. OVER
Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins, Last season 12-5
The Lions pulled themselves out of their perennial home in the NFC North basement and are expected to challenge for the division title once again this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown signed a nice extension, Detroit now has a winning mentality in the locker room, and a winnable schedule is on the horizon. However, this win total feels a little inflated, as a 10-7 season is the most likely outcome in Detroit. UNDER
Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
Green Bay has a solid quarterback with Jordan Love, but another season around the .500 mark is what should be expected for Green Bay. Running back Josh Jacobs will be a nice addition in the backfield, and the Packers have proven they can win meaningful games. Unfortunately, over the course of a 17-game season, there are still too many holes in their lineup to reach double-digit wins. UNDER
Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins, Last season 10-7
This is one of the best bets you can make, as Houston will once again secure 10+ wins this season. Their division is in shambles, which will allow them to secure a 5-1 or better record there. Their young team developed nicely last season and will only be better this time around. Houston will soar over this total, and even has the potential to challenge for the top seed in the AFC. OVER
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
The Colts managed to finish with a winning record last year, but that will not be happening again. Their aging team spent numerous weeks with veterans on the sidelines, and it’s hard to imagine them staying healthy enough to compete this year. Richardson provided an early season spark for the Colts, and a healthy signal caller could propel them into the playoffs. This one is more of a lean, but I’m calling for the Colts to stay just under their total, with a 8-9 record this year. UNDER
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
Jacksonville is a team difficult to get a solid read on. Trevor Lawrence has been average throughout his NFL career, but he has been consistent. The Jaguars are the definition of a ‘mid’ team, and they will once again have a middling record. Their experience and consistency up and down the roster will allow them to beat the poor teams and struggle against the league’s best. A second straight 9-8 season is on the cards. OVER
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins, Last season 11-6
The Chiefs have star receiver Rashee Rice dealing with off-field issues, and it’s hard to imagine them improving on their record from last year. Travis Kelce is past his prime, and Patrick Mahomes lacks a reliable receiving option outside of his longtime tight end. Taking Unders on the Chiefs is never fun, but at this price, it must be done. UNDER
LA Chargers: 8.5 Wins, Last season 5-12
The Chargers have fallen short of expectations every season, as injuries have decimated Justin Herbert’s supporting cast. Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And while the Chargers got better, they didn’t get 4+ wins better. Early season adversity could derail their playoff hopes, and they will finish just Under the .500 mark this year. UNDER
LA Rams: 8.5 Wins, Last season 10-7
Breakout stars Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua propelled LA to a playoff spot last season, but they will struggle to replicate that this year. Nacua and Williams’s strong play overshadowed the obvious holes in the Rams lineup defensively, and the Rams will not get as lucky this time around. UNDER
Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins, Last season 8-9
The Raiders consistently found ways to win games they really shouldn’t have last season, but this line movement is a little bit of an overreaction. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will not be challenging for a Super Bowl, but they are reliable quarterbacks, capable of keeping the Raiders around the .500 mark. At a lowly 6.5 wins, anything resembling a competent football team will be enough to cash this OVER.
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins, Last season 11-6
Miami’s high-flying offense overcame their defensive deficiencies last year. They were able to run past the league’s bottom feeders but struggled against teams above .500. Twelve of their 17 games are against teams with 8.5 or better win totals, and they will be unable to secure double digit wins this season. Until they fix their defense, the Dolphins cannot be taken seriously. UNDER
Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Wins, Last season 7-10
The Vikings lost longtime quarterback Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons, drafting JJ McCarthy as his replacement. A quarterback room of McCarthy and Sam Darnold is not a recipe for success. The Vikings aren’t terrible, but they will finish in the bottom 10 of the league, failing to post the 7 wins needed to cash this total. UNDER
New England Patriots: 4.5 Wins, Last season 4-13
The Patriots made the wise decision to move on from Mac Jones, with Jacoby Brisett and Drake Maye taking the reins at quarterback. The Patriots are a lost franchise, destined for another top draft pick. The 4.5-win total is the lowest in the league. However, with no real ‘gimmes’ on their schedule, they will struggle to even get to 3 or 4, let alone 5 wins. UNDER.
New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
The Saints find themselves in a very winnable NFC South and have just enough life to get over this line. Derek Carr is reliable at quarterback, and the Saints have an exceptional defense going the other way. They will probably finish just short of a playoff spot once again, but 8 wins is a very attainable target for New Orleans. OVER
New York Giants: 6.5 Wins, Last season 6-11
The Giants are not a good team, and it’s hard to really imagine them besting last year’s total. Daniel Jones is a bottom half quarterback. And without Saquon Barkley in the backfield, they will struggle to move the ball even more. They were one of three teams to score less than 300 points last season, averaging just 15.4 PPG. That is simply not good enough to compete in the modern-day NFL, and it will be another lost season for the Giants. UNDER
New York Jets: 9.5 Wins, Last season 7-10
The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the season last year, and there is understandable optimism in New York. If the Jets get MVP-caliber Rodgers, their strong defense can absolutely get them over the line here. However, Rodgers is now 40 years old and coming off a terrible achilles injury. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets surpass this total, but more often than not, Rodgers and co. fall short of expectations. UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Wins, Last season 11-6
The Eagles stumbled over the finish line last year, failing to win the NFC East despite a 9-1 start to the year. The addition of Saquon Barkley will make their lethal offense that much better, and they can absolutely match their 11-6 record from last season. OVER
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 Wins, Last season 10-7
This win total implies that head coach Mike Tomlin will post his first losing record with the Steelers. Tomlin has been through it all in Pittsburgh, and there is no way the Under should be considered in his 18th season with the franchise. The Steelers don’t have the best lineup, but a strong defense always finds a way to get it done. OVER
Seattle Seahawks: 7.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
Seattle lost key defensive players in the offseason, including middle linebacker and future hall of famer Bobby Wagner. Geno Smith isn’t good enough to carry a weak defense to a winning record, and Seattle will find themselves closer to the Cardinals at the bottom than the 49ers at the top. UNDER
San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 Wins, Last season 12-5
The 49ers offense is incredibly deep, and they’ve yet to lose their stars despite plenty of trade rumors swirling around. If they can keep their offense intact, this 11.5-game win total is well within their reach. Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the league, and the 49ers are stacked on both sides of the ball. OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Wins, Last season 9-8
The Buccaneers made a shock run into the playoffs last year, beating the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. Their division got more competitive, but they are still good enough to secure 8+ wins this year. Baker Mayfield has developed solid chemistry with his receivers, and the Bucs offense is one of the most consistent in the league. OVER
Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins, Last season 6-11
The Titans will struggle to consistently put wins on the board this season. Derrick Henry has been able to hide the offensive shortcomings in their lineup. However, as he ages, his productivity is declining. The Titans will roll out Will Levis at quarterback once again this year, and he isn’t good enough to propel the Titans to the next level. UNDER
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Wins, Last season 4-13
The Commanders started out the year 4-5 before losing 8 straight games to close out the season. The positive from that fall off was the arrival of number 2 overall draft pick Jayden Daniels. Daniels gives optimism at the quarterback position for Washington for the first time in a decade, and they have a surprisingly sneaky team capable of playing meaningful football down the stretch. OVER
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