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2023 NFL Scoring Props Predictions: Most and Fewest Points

by Mike Allen - 8/17/2023

NFL scoring props predictions James Cook Buffalo Bills

The 2023 NFL Preseason schedule is finally underway. The months without football seem to last twice as long as those during the season. It works out making the Summers last, but that's about it.

I'm sure you guys are as starved for football action as I am, and probably more. We still have to wait, though! The regular season kicks off with a Thursday night game on September 7. That is still about three weeks away.

We can all agree that waiting is the worst.

That's what I wanted to talk to you guys about today. We may have to wait a few weeks until we see some meaningful NFL games. However, as far as futures betting odds, we can get started right now!

Let's look at which teams we think will score the most points in the 2023 NFL regular season. Also, we can look at which teams we believe will score the fewest points through their 17 scheduled games.

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2023 NFL Teams Most Points Scored Betting Odds

Kansas City Chiefs: +500

Philadelphia Eagles: +650

Buffalo Bills: +800

Cincinnati Bengals: +850

San Francisco 49ers: +1000

Dallas Cowboys: +1000

Baltimore Ravens: +1200

Los Angeles Chargers: +1400

Miami Dolphins: +2000

Not surprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs are at the top of the list this year. I am going to pass on them, though. Pardon the pun.

They will be playing most of their games outdoors in potentially harsh weather conditions, and the Chiefs have such a gnarly schedule this year overall.

That brings me to the theme for today's article. You will hear it several times throughout.

The AFC is a lot better than the NFC, particularly the defenses. It was the case last year, and I don't project a massive shift this upcoming season.

That is why I am staying away from taking an AFC team in this spot. The Buffalo Bills are a high-powered offense, but they will, of course, play the New England Patriots twice. Bill Belichick hasn't been able to do much on offense since Tom Brady left, but that defense has not missed a step.

More on them in a moment.

I am projecting a regression for the Cincinnati Bengals. They play in the AFC North, a division historically known for stingy defenses and cold, nasty weather.

The Ravens will probably score more than expected, but the AFC North strikes again.

We have to go with a couple of teams from the NFC. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are not a weak choice here, but I think it's a toss-up between them, the Dallas Cowboys, and the San Francisco 49ers to score the most points in the NFL in 2023.

The defensive adjustments made against San Francisco QB Brock Purdy worry me a bit, but he has such a dominant defense to keep him out of bad spots. The team is loaded on offense as well. The Niners have the best dual-threat running back in the league in Christian McCaffrey.

The Dallas Cowboys trimmed some fat when they let go of Ezekiel Elliott. His replacement, Tony Pollard, is poised for a massive year! He and Dak can be more successful in the play-action game than the former duo of Prescott/Elliott.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

2023 NFL Teams Fewest Points Scored Betting Odds

Arizona Cardinals: +650

Houston Texans: +1000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +1000

Washington Commanders: +1000

Indianapolis Colts: +1000

Tennessee Titans: +1200

New England Patriots: +1200

Pittsburgh Steelers: +2000

For the same reasons that we focused our energy on teams from the NFC to score the most points, we believe the winning ticket for the fewest points scored in 2023 will come with an AFC team's name at the top.

We may have already tipped our hand. We mentioned the AFC North having the best defenses. However, which team from that division has the worst offense?

You have to look at last season's points scored, particularly in the second half. Pittsburgh won six of their final eight games last year, including finishing the year on a 4-game winning streak.

They still weren't scoring very many points. I don't believe in their quarterback, and for 20-1 betting odds, it's not a bad flyer.

Our best bet for the NFL team to score the fewest points in 2023, though, is the New England Patriots. I know they will be playing on some short fields with such a strong defense, especially rushing the passer. 

It's the schedule that makes this bet for me for the Pats, though. They have a difficult year in front of them, and it gets worse the deeper we dig. New England has less than a handful of "easy" games on the docket, and most of those teams have strong defenses.

Pick: New England Patriots

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

In Conclusion

It was a simple theme, but many times that's the most effective approach to life's questions.

The AFC is a better conference with much better defenses and possibly better offenses than the NFC.

I admit that picking two legendary franchises to score the fewest points feels a bit foolish, but we are getting valuable odds on two teams with massive question marks at the quarterback position.

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