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2023 NFL Running Back Predictions: Props Odds and Betting Picks

by Matt Zitt - 8/12/2023

NFL running back predictions Cam Akers Los Angeles Rams

The 2023-24 NFL season is quickly approaching, and it is time to look at some season-long prop bets! There are a ton of props with so much opportunity on a clean board before the real action starts in September. The key is to evaluate and find lines that are too low or too high. In this article, I will be going through some running back props that I’m targeting this season.

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D'Andre Swift OVER 4.5 rushing touchdowns (+112)

This is one of my favorite plays as Swift has scored eight, five, and five rushing touchdowns the past three seasons, respectively. His former teammate Jamaal Williams was a touchdown vulture in Detroit, but Swift has a great opportunity in Philly. He should be the number one back in a high-octane offense, and the biggest threat to his rushing touchdown potential will be quarterback Jalen Hurts. Swift will have plenty of red zone opportunities to cross the goal line and at plus money!

Saquan Barkley OVER 7.5 rushing touchdowns (-112)

Barkley had a strange off-season debating whether to sit out for a new contract but ultimately signed a one-year deal worth $10 million. I am willing to risk money on a guy that should be heavily motivated for his next contract after this season. Barkley was great last season, rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. More importantly, he was healthy and the best he has looked since his rookie campaign. This year's Giants offense is like last year’s, and they should be relying a lot on Barkley. The Giants also prioritize running inside the red zone, as eight of Barkley’s 10 rushing touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line. Bank on Barkley to get another 10+ rushing touchdowns in 2023.

Rachaad White UNDER 800.5 rushing yards (-110)

This is an easy under, as there were not many positive things for White’s rookie campaign. He was statistically one of the least efficient backs in the entire league. Now, the offense shifts from Tom Brady leading the helm to Baker Mayfield. White averaged 3.7 yards per carry and generated 2.54 yards created per touch. He was also 44th in the league in carries that went over 15+ yards. All the positive feedback about his game comes from his receiving abilities. Last time I checked, receiving ability does not contribute to White exceeding 800 rushing yards.

Bijan Robinson to lead the NFL in rushing yards (+1000)

This rookie has all the talent to lead the league in rushing yards and could not ask for a better landing spot. Back in 2016, a rookie named Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that a rookie can accomplish this feat. The Falcons ran the ball 56% of the time in a neutral game script last year and 51% of the time in a negative game script. The point is, the Falcons want to run the ball no matter what the situation is. The Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder did not light the NFL on fire last season when he saw game action, so odds are high Robinson can get 20+ carries a game. He has a real shot at a 300+ carry season as long as he can stay healthy. If he can average 4.5-5.0 yards per carry, look for Robinson to be in contention come January.

Cam Akers UNDER 775.5 rushing yards (-112)

Akers registered 786 rushing yards in 2022 in 15 games with Los Angeles, but those numbers are a little skewed in my opinion. Almost half of last year's rush total came in the final three games of the season. Outside of those three 100+ yard games, the most rushing yards he had in a game was 65. That comes out to an average of 36.75 yards per game in the other 12 games… NOT GOOD. Reports from training camp claim that Matthew Stafford is the healthiest he has looked in years and Cooper Kupp is back after missing significant time in 2022. All of this points to the Rams throwing the ball much more this season, the same recipe that led them to a Super Bowl victory over the Bengals in 2021. Akers has also missed 17 games the past two years. I just do not see him hitting this total. 

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