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2023 NFL Quarterback Predictions: Props Odds and Betting Picks

by Matt Zitt - 8/12/2023

NFL quarterback predictions Aaron Rodgers New York Jets

Training camp has ramped up, and the 2023 NFL season will be here before you know it. That means more and more NFL player props are being released week by week. Wagering your hard-earned money in August and waiting five months for bets to settle is not the easiest pill to swallow. However, now is a great time to find value in lines before the markets fully mature in the future and make the wait worth it in the end. We will look at some of the best lines that the sportsbooks have drawn up for the quarterback position for the upcoming NFL season.

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Justin Herbert OVER 4,450.5 passing yards (-110)

I LOVE this number, which I believe is set way too low. Obviously, betting on overs carries extra risks due to one injury that can doom the bet. Herbert’s ceiling is too high to ignore this number. The guy broke his ribs last season, was forced to throw the ball to DeAndre Carter and Joshua Palmer for over half the season, and still managed to throw for 4,739 yards. Now you have a healthy receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and explosive first-round pick Quentin Johnston. It also helps to have a running back that is coming off 100+ receptions last year in Austin Ekeler. I strongly believe Herbert has what it takes to break the regular season passing yards title. Take the over!

Jalen Hurts OVER 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

This is another number set too low, even with the rushing attack of the Eagles. Hurts missed two games last season due to injury and still posted 22 passing touchdowns. This offense is stacked in talent, which will result in plenty of redzone opportunities. The Eagles made 59 trips to the redzone last season, with only nine of those trips producing a passing touchdown at a rate of 15.2%. I would say the odds are higher that percentage increases rather than decreases in 2023. There should be no shortage of touchdowns with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as targets.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)

Doug Pederson took the 2022 Trevor Lawrence, who looked lost, and turned him into a revived premier passer in the NFL. Of course, there were still some ups and downs, but who can forget the miraculous playoff comeback? Now insert Calvin Ridley into the offense that already includes a solid receiver in Christian Kirk, resurgent Evan Engram, and Lawrence’s college teammate, Travis Etienne Jr., and this has the making of a high caliber offensive attack. Take this total and divide by a 17-game schedule, Lawrence needs to average 239 yards per game to hit the mark.

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 9.5 interceptions (-115)

The New York Jets made headlines by bringing in former MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Packers, so it is safe to say there are high expectations. Rodgers is coming off a 12-pick season last year in Green Bay, which is his first double-digit interception season since 2010. Efficiency is the name of the game for Rodgers, and I expect him to be extremely efficient in a new situation. He has a ton of experience with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the Jets’ front office brought in some of his longtime teammates to help him out.

Justin Fields to lead quarterbacks in rushing yards (+175) and OVER 825.5 rushing yards (-110)

In 15 games last season, Justin Fields registered 1,143 rushing yards, the second-most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback of all-time behind Lamar Jackson in 2019 (1,206). He averaged 7.1 yards per carry, which is ninth all-time for quarterbacks that ran for 500 or more yards. He also tallied 160 carries last season and will have plenty of opportunities to use his legs again this year. David Montgomery is out the door, and the Bears will utilize Fields’ rushing ability as a part of the game plan. I like his chances at back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. The only player that could give Fields a run for most rushing yards by a quarterback is Lamar Jackson, but he can not stay healthy the past two seasons. The Ravens also added Zay Flowers through the draft and OBJ to help the passing game, which in turn could take rushes away from Lamar. Take Fields’ over for rushing total and to lead all QBs in rushing yards at +175 odds.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 3,850.5 passing yards

The biggest question is if you are willing to gamble on his health. If he plays 15 to 17 games this year, there is no doubt he clears this number. In parts of 13 games last year, Tagovailoa threw for 3,548 yards, which comes out to 273 yards per game. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are stars that will each put up 1,000+ yard seasons. Can the rest of the offense chip in for 1,851 receiving yards? I think so! But again, can he stay healthy? The Dolphins are counting on it, so if he does, he will clear this number.

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