NFL Office Pool Picks Week 18 - ATS Predictions for Every Game!
The final week of the NFL season is here, and it is time to solidify our spot on top of the office pool standings. If you have been following this column this season, there is no doubt you are at or near the top of your office pool standings. As we head into the final week of the grueling 272-game season, our against the spread record is 136-115-5, for a win rate of 54.2%. Anything above 52.4% will be profitable with the standard -110 lines on sportsbooks, so there is no denying this season was a success. However, even after going 11-5 last week, it is not time to take our foot off the gas. A strong showing in the year's final week will clinch our spot on top of the standings. And without further ado, here are your office pool picks for all 16 games in Week 18.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Cleveland Browns (+17.5) Over Baltimore Ravens
The Browns are not a good football team, and the Ravens know they can clinch first place in the NFC North with a victory. While the Ravens will almost certainly pick up the win, a 17.5-point spread is far too wide. Baltimore will be sitting their starters if they can build a big lead and would have to be up more than 25 points to avoid getting caught with a backdoor cover. It’s hard to put much faith in the Browns right now, but a +17.5 point spread makes them the only option to kick off Week 18. Ravens 24, Browns 10
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals have begun their annual late-season playoff push, but it has come a couple of weeks too late. They have won 4 straight games and will do their part on Sunday to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. These two teams are heading in different directions right now, and the motivation is much stronger for the Bengals than the Steelers, who have already clinched a postseason position. Bengals 24, Steelers 20
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) Over New England Patriots
The Bills have nothing to play for and will be impartial to whether they win or lose this week. The same cannot be said for New England, who will have plenty of incentive to lose outright to keep their draft pick intact. Regardless if motivation plays a factor or not, the Bills backups are better than the Patriots starters at this stage of the season. New England has the worst offense in the league. And even with the underdog price tag at home, they are still a fade. Bills 20, Patriots 13
Atlanta Falcons (-8) Over Carolina Panthers
The Falcons have lost control of their destiny after losing to the Commanders last week. They need to beat the Panthers and have the Buccaneers lose to the lowly Saints if they are to clinch the NFC South. While Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons aren’t exactly lighting it up offensively, I expect them to take care of business with a double-digit victory against the Panthers. Carolina has looked better in the second half of the season, but they will still struggle to slow down Bijan Robinson and the Falcons ground attack. Falcons 28, Panthers 10
Chicago Bears (+10) Over Green Bay Packers
The Bears are dreadful, but a rest advantage paired with a double digit spread is enough to take a shot with the road team in this one. The Packers will already be looking ahead to the postseason, while the Bears will be playing for a spot on the roster next season. Green Bay has some incentive to still go out and win this one, but expecting a blowout is too much to ask for. Chicago has a strong defense. And as long as Caleb Williams can find the endzone at least once, they will cover this +10 point spread. Packers 21, Bears 13
Houston Texans (-1) Over Tennessee Titans
The Texans have already won their division and have been playing poor football in recent weeks. While we may not see the starters play the whole game, Houston will want to build some momentum after losing 31-2 against the Ravens last week. The Titans are one of the worst teams in the league, and are a dreadful 2-14 against the spread this season. This is an ugly, ugly game, but they all count the same and we have no choice but to side with Houston this week. Texans 20, Titans 17
Indianapolis Colts (-5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts were eliminated from the playoffs last week after losing to the lowly Giants. The vibes will be down in the dressing room, but it is still incomparable to the dumpster fire in Jacksonville. This is a thick spread for two bad teams, but the Colts will want to end the seasons with a victory at home. Jacksonville has been dreadful on both sides of the ball, and we can at least trust the Colts to get into the endzone on multiple occasions. Colts 32, Jaguars 22
New Orleans Saints (+13.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Flashback to Week 7. The Buccaneers are down multiple scores, but they elect to play Chris Godwin with just a handful of seconds to play and he gets injured for the rest of the season. The Buccaneers need to win this game to make the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they will look to pile on the points against the Saints. New Orleans has a respectable defense, and a low scoring win where the Buccaneers drain the clock appears to be the most likely scenario. It’ll be close, but I have to give the slight edge to New Orleans with this spread. Buccaneers 28, Saints 17
New York Giants (+2) Over Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles will be resting Saquon Barkley and the rest of their starters in this matchup. The Giants have already shown they don’t care about the draft next year and will go out and win football games. That is a recipe for more disaster for the Giants fanbase, as another meaningless victory will send them further down the draft list. It’s easy to forget the players and coaches are still fighting for their futures, and the slight edge goes to New York in this specific matchup. Giants 24, Eagles 19
Washington Commanders (-4.5) Over Dallas Cowboys
The Commanders have plenty of incentive as they would much rather face the Rams, Buccaneers, or Falcons than the mighty Eagles in the wild card round. A victory over Dallas can ensure they avoid their division rivals, and they will have extra incentive after losing to Dallas earlier this season. Jayden Daniels is playing remarkable football for Washington and this spread should be pushing double digits. Dallas is extremely banged up, while Washington is playing their best football of the century. Commanders 37, Cowboys 15
Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5) Over Denver Broncos
The Broncos will be going all out for the victory in this one as a win secures them a place in the postseason. The Chiefs have already locked up the top seed, but their strong defense will keep this one close in Week 18. The Broncos haven’t been blowing teams out as of late, and a narrow victory will still get the job done. Broncos win, Chiefs cover. Broncos 28, Chiefs 20
Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have little motivation in this one, and they will not risk an injury to Justin Herbert with nothing to play for. Las Vegas doesn’t care about the draft board and has shown the ability to keep things close with their strong defense. The Chargers are already heading to the postseason, but they will be finishing off the regular season with a tight, meaningless defeat. Raiders 17. Chargers 13
Miami Dolphins (-1) Over New York Jets
The Dolphins need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and you shouldn’t need an excuse to fade the Jets this season. They are just 5-11 against the spread and are once again expected to play out a competitive game in a clear mismatch. Even if Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t play, the Dolphins will be motivated to make the postseason and do their part in staying alive. Dolphins 20, Jets 11
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) Over Seattle Seahawks
This spread has been climbing over the last week, but it has now skyrocketed way too high in favor of the Seahawks. The Rams are in the playoffs and will be resting some starters, but that doesn’t mean the Seahawks will just run right through them on Sunday afternoon. Seattle only has four wins this season of 7+ points. Their defensive mistakes and turnover prone quarterback make them an easy fade with a spread like this. Rams 21, Seahawks 20
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) Over San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy will be out for the 49ers this week, and the edge goes to the Cardinals thanks to Kyler Murray’s solid play. Neither team has anything to play for and are both in the middle of the standings, and the draft position is not too much of a concern. The Cardinals are the healthier team at this stage of the season, and that is enough to give them an edge against the 49ers. Cardinals 24, 49ers 17
Minnesota Vikings (+3) Over Detroit Lions
The big game of the week has been rightfully flexed to Sunday night. The number one seed in the NFC is up for grabs, and all the value is with the Vikings. Minnesota has the better defense and the disparity in offensive quality is not nearly as wide as this spread suggests. It will just take one costly mistake from Dan Campbell to turn the tides in favor of the Vikings, and Minnesota won’t need a second invitation to capitalize. Vikings 27, Lions 24
2024 Season Record: 136-115-5
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