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2023-24 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds and Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 8/21/2023

NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds and predictions Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings

Watch out Justin Jefferson (reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year)! Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is now the favorite to take home the award in 2023-24. The last four winners of this award have all been skill position players. Three of those four have been wide receivers, with Derrick Henry being the lone running back. He won it in 2020 after terrorizing defenses with 2,027 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns and averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Interestingly, only four players have won both the NFL MVP Award and the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award in the same season over the last 10 years. Peyton Manning won both in 2013, Cam Newton in 2015, Matt Ryan in 2016, and Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Who are some of our favorite betting values for this year’s honors? We will break it all down below.

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Justin Jefferson (+1300)

Last year’s winner of the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Jefferson is currently the second favorite to take home the hardware. Jefferson may be the most intriguing candidate because all he has done since joining the NFL is put up video game numbers. The Vikings wide receiver set a new NFL record for most receiving yards in a players’ first three seasons with 4,825 yards. His 1,809 receiving yards from last season not only led the league, but it was the sixth-most receiving yards in a single season all-time. Jefferson saw 167 targets in 2021 and 184 targets in 2022. With the other pass catching options of TJ Hockenson, KJ Osborn, and Jordan Addison, it is hard to imagine his target share suffers. Jefferson can easily win back-to-back OPOY.

Christian McCaffrey (+1500)

The San Francisco 49ers got to the NFC Championship Game last season in large part to the success of Christian McCaffrey. He rushed for 1,139 yards and added another 746 receiving. His 1,880 all-purpose yardage was his personal highest total since he led the entire league with 2,392 yards from scrimmage in 2019. McCaffrey will excel in this offense, as long as he stays healthy, with all the offensive weapons the 49ers have on the field. Defenses will not be able to key on one guy, and McCaffrey will get 20+ touches a contest.

Tyreek Hill (+2000)

Speed kills. Hill recently told the media he is highly motivated to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards this year. You must keep in mind about Hill’s style of play and athleticism to create explosive play after explosive play. He will always have a chance to break one loose and rack up yards after the catch, which always keeps him near the top of the league leaders in yards. In his first year with the Miami Dolphins, the speedster tallied 1,710 receiving yards. That total was 231 yards higher than any season he had with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense. In the 13 games Tua Tagovailoa played in last year, Hill accumulated 1,408 yards. If Tua stays healthy, Hill can easily win the hardware for OPOY.

Lamar Jackson (+2500)

Health will be a major sticking point to this one, but Lamar Jackson has what it takes to win this award and provides great value at 25-1. The Ravens added multiple pieces to the offense, including Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round pick Zay Flowers. Mark Andrews is a top-three tight end in the league, and Rashad Bateman should get plenty of opportunities to shine. The Ravens brought in Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator, and he should let Jackson air it out. The QBs previous career high in passing attempts came in his MVP season in 2019. I think he exceeds his previous career high this season and is in the conversation for OPOY.

Stefon Diggs (+3000)

Another player that has been consistently elite at his position and provides great value at 30-1. In all three seasons that Diggs has been paired up with Josh Allen, he has finished with at least 154 targets, 103 receptions and 1,225 receiving yards. Behind a mediocre supporting cast, Diggs will be the primary focus of the offense in 2023. The Bills will also be under the most pressure they have faced to win a Lombardi Trophy, making Diggs a tremendous betting value for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. 

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