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2024 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 11/21/2024

NFL MVP odds and predictions Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

The race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player in 2024 has tightened. However, teams still have six or seven games left to play. That’s nearly 40% of the regular season remaining. When you take into account recency bias and higher-weighted games like the one we just saw between Buffalo and KC, it’s almost like we’re only halfway there.

We have a long list of 19 players who still have betting odds to win the NFL MVP, 17 of which are quarterbacks. You can probably guess who those two non-quarterbacks are. Yes, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley have both made a massive difference for their new teams. They both have high-paying betting odds to win the MVP award, and their roles are likely to be raised as the weather worsens.

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2024 NFL MVP Betting Odds

Josh Allen: +150

Josh Allen moved to the betting favorite after he willed his team to a win over the Kansas City

Chiefs on Sunday.

Lamar Jackson: +250

Lamar Jackson is awesome. He’s having a tremendous year and could be the betting favorite next week with a heroic win in LA against the surging Bolts if we see Allen have a bad game.

Jared Goff: +900

Jared Goff may be the perfect quarterback for his team's success on offense. However, they are loaded everywhere, and the offense doesn't run through him. It begins and ends with the hogmollies up front making holes for the two-headed monster at running back. You can argue against the betting value on Goff, though.

Patrick Mahomes: +1200

Patrick Mahomes is having the worst season of his career, but his team has the best record in the league. That points to maybe him not being as valuable as we thought. Again, it's still early, and the Mahomes still have seven games left to work his magic.

Jalen Hurts: +2000

What happened to the Eagles when their receivers went down? The team struggled mightily on offense. Compare that to Matt Stafford, who relies on the pass even more and lost his top two wideouts for a bit, and you see the difference.

A lot like Allen, though, Hurts can make truly memorable runs in meaningful moments down the stretch.

Joe Burrow: +2800

Up until about two weeks ago, Joe Burrow for MVP was a sneaky sharp bet. He has played exceptionally, but the defense can't get stops.

Justin Herbert: +2800

Justin Herbert is playing great football right now, and he's doing it without a star running back, tight end, or receiver. The strong defense has set him up much better than the Cincy defense could do for Burrow. The coaching change has been a big positive for LA, too.

Saquon Barkley: +3300

Finally, at 33-1, we get our first of two running backs. Barkley is the piece that completes this offense, but the offensive line is one of the best, and the skill positions are up there as well. Hurts and Barkely will hurt each other's chances at the award.

Brock Purdy: +4000

This is the time if you want a piece of Brock Purdy. I actually don’t mind this bet right now. With all the struggles the team is having, Purdy has the opportunity to take his game to the next level and potentially win the award.

The guy's numbers were good enough last year. Experts just see him as a guy who can facilitate with above-average moxy. He could go off for the next seven games, but we haven't seen him be a gamebreaker yet this year.

Kyler Murray: +4000

Here's another sneaky pick. I like Kyler Murray here more than Purdy. If this guy prepares as hard as he runs and throws the ball during the game, he is 100% MVP material. His return to the helm in 2024 has clearly made a difference for the now first-place Cardinals.

Jayden Daniels: +4000

The kid can sling it, but bet him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year instead.

Jordan Love: +4500

I see his team turn the ball over more and struggle with him than I did with Malik Willis under center. Jordan Love is obviously a better quarterback, but he's been banged up this year, and it's shown.

C.J. Stroud: +6000

C.J. Stroud has had a very solid sophomore year, especially after the expectations for his play and the team’s success skyrocketed before the season. He’s lost Stefon Diggs for the season and was without Nico Collins for a month.

Geno Smith: +8000

The Seahawks are still in it, but nah.

Sam Darnold: +8000

Sam Darnold could have won this award if it was given out after the first month of the season. Lately, though, he's looked a lot more human, and his squad has gone from ATS darlings to an under team.

Matthew Stafford: +10000

How can you throw Matty Stafford way down here? I think it's a bit disrespectful, and watch out. The Rams are winners of 4 of their last five games.

Derrick Henry: +10000

Wow, Stafford and Derrick Henry are both way down here at 100-1 to win the MVP. If Henry hurts Jackson's chances, then Jackson's massive success makes Henry look more human.

Baker Mayfield: +20000

Baker Mayfield missed an opportunity this year to contend for the MVP Award. If his defense could get stops, he wouldn't be losing and in obvious passing downs the majority of the time. That's where a lot of his nine interceptions have come from.

Ha, tell that to Burrow, though, who has a worse defense yet has thrown for 27 touchdowns with just four interceptions.

2024 NFL MVP Best Bets

Josh Allen: +150

This is Allen's award to lose. He's never won it, which counts. You can't name another superstar on his team. That's huge, and it's what sets him apart from his peers right now. He's outside of the top ten at his position in QB Rating, completion %, and yards/pass attempt, yet he is the betting favorite.

Unless your statistics are head and shoulders above the rest, this award is about game-breaking moments and the intangibles a player displays on his way to willing his team to a win.

Kyler Murray: +4000

Murray is ahead of Allen and trails only Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow with a QBR of 74.9. Stafford, Goff, and Herbert aren’t even in the top 10. He’s also 2nd in rushing yards at his position behind Jackson, but Murray goes for 8.1 yards/carry while Jackson is a 6.0.

If Arizona goes on a run and wins the NFC West this year, who gets the praise? Murray, because there are no other superstars.

Derrick Henry: +10000

Even if you just put a dollar on Henry to win the MVP, it'll pay triple digits. With that temperature dropping, the thought of hitting this guy and the days of pain it will cause begin to creep into defenders' minds.

Baker Mayfield: +20000

100-1 wasn't good enough for a long shot. It's not about the payout here, though. I believe Mayfield has a chance. He's definitely leveled up. He has the same grit and fire as Allen. They are both a treat to watch and don't count out the Bucs. I remember tipping them at 18-1 to win the division a few weeks back. Now, they have a 40% chance to make the postseason.

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