NFL Handicapping Tips: Which Public Teams Affect the Betting Odds

by Paul Buck - 7/25/2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

There are two memorable events every professional football fan and sports bettor should experience. The first is walking into a packed NFL stadium for a big game just before kickoff and feel the anticipation in the air. The other is walking into a Las Vegas casino on an NFL Sunday with every game broadcast and soaking up the atmosphere of all the hollering and moaning that are going on at the same time.

The NFL is king in North America when it comes to fan interest and excitement. This also translates extremely well when it comes to making NFL football picks . Football bettors have an insatiable appetite when it comes to - The Shield - wanting it more and more.

While game attendance and the TV ratings have generally been flat the last few years, money spent on betting NFL football or playing fantasy football continues to rise. With the changes in U.S. laws about sports wagering, more and more states will take bets, and the largest contributor to the state coffers will be those from the most popular teams.

Though fluctuation will occur with how the NFL is set up with the draft and schedule, there are teams with deep-rooted fans who love their teams, and this continues to be passed on generation to generation.

Many of these fans also have love/hate relationships when it comes to placing NFL bets. With decades of data to pull from to understand how certain fans back "their team", oddsmakers can astutely pick spots to add points to particular squads that could work to the house's favor.

Though some could argue about what teams should be listed, there is not arguing that all of these clubs have strong public support.

New England Patriots - Nobody in their right mind could have ever imagined Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and Robert Kraft would have this long of relationship and forge a football dynasty of this magnitude. Eventually, all three will no longer be a part of arguably the greatest sustained period of excellence in the history of the sport. Sportsbooks have tried for years to make numbers on New England that were often over-inflated. That was largely unsuccessful as the Brady Bunch continued to beat the spread whether it was -7 or -14. Eventually, this franchise will slide (we think), but those betting football might not be so easy to let the Patriots pass.

Pittsburgh Steelers - New England might have caught Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl championships, but Steelers fans will share their wisdom with their AFC rivals about longevity. Pittsburgh is approaching five decades of playing well above average football. Since winning their first Super Bowl in 1974, the Steelers have only had seven non-losing seasons. With the Ben Roethlisberger era winding down and no imminent replacement ready to keep the winning tradition moving forward, there could be a little slippage. Nonetheless, the sportsbooks are well aware of the Steelers backer's loyalty and will not miss a chance to pad a number whenever possible.

Green Bay Packers - Not since San Francisco had Joe Montana and Steve Young has a franchise been blessed with consecutive Hall of Fame quarterback like Green Bay. Many could say the Packers should have won more Super Bowls with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers; Green Bay was always a threat and sometimes suffered bad luck that prevented that from happening. Cheeseheads are among the most loyal fans in football, and for those with gray hair, they remember what it was like before Favre and Mike Holmgren were there. After the Packers won the first two Super Bowls in seasons 1966-67 (Those first two games were known as NFC vs. AFC championships), Green Bay fans had a total of five winning seasons until Holmgren arrived in 1991. Oddsmakers have had their eye on this team for years trying to exploit the right situations.

Dallas Cowboys - This is another storied franchise that went from Tom Landry to Jerry Jones. During the early part of Jones' ownership, he dubbed his franchise "America's Team" and it stuck. Dallas has not hoisted a Super Bowl trophy since 1995, and Jones has turned over the day-to-day operation of the Cowboys to his son Stephen. Dallas continues to strive to want to win more titles, but they have not always made the best decisions. Still, their loyal fan base is annually convinced "this is their year". Though any oddsmakers or sportsbook would never directly comment on this, they are always thrilled when Dallas is pretty good, because that allows them to profit handily at their supporters' expense.

New York Giants/Jets - Fans of Big Blue and Gang Green will not appreciate being listed like a dual entry of horse race. Yet, the fact remains, these are two extremely loyal fan groupings who love to talk smack when their teams are good and complain incessantly when they stink. Sportsbooks have not had to mess with setting quirky lines with these two teams. The Jets ownership is so weak they cannot help but make mistakes. And during the Eli Manning era, the Giants got hot late twice and cost the books plenty in winning a pair of Super Bowls (with 9- and 10-win teams). Nevertheless, bookies and sportsbooks made far more money collecting than paying out from these fans, who love to gamble on their teams.

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NFL Handicapping Tips: Which Public Teams Affect the Betting Odds

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