NFL Draft Grades 2023

by Robert Ferringo - 5/1/2023

Forget about the NFL teams. The real winners of last weekend’s NFL draft were the bettors that wagered with me on my NFL draft props! We hit big on Thursday in the first round with a 5-Unit Play on the ‘under’ on total offensive linemen picked (at +350) odds and then cashed our 7-Unit Play on ‘over’ 14.5 defensive players picked in Round 1 (at +220). Toss in a 4-Unit hit with ‘under’ 5.5 defensive backs (at +155) and when the dust settled we woke up with +2,500 on Friday morning.

Good times.

I feel like the NFL draft is one of the more overhyped and overblow events of the NFL offseason. The incoming rookie class really has very little impact on the upcoming season. Honestly, how many rookies really step in and have major impacts for their teams? And when rookies do generally come in and light it up, it is more likely going to be on a bad team.

The NFL draft is about the future. It has a long-term effect. As a professional handicapper and bettor, I can’t get caught trying to project two or three years down the road. I’m only interested in the present and the near-term future.

Regardless, there are two important, tangible effects that the NFL draft has on the upcoming season.

First, it generates hype and momentum for certain teams. The public will get buzzing about teams that are considered to have had a successful draft. Again, never mind the fact that these rookies will likely do more harm than good on the actual field this year. But the public loves hype. So teams that are deemed successful at the draft will get a little extra love and attention from the public and the media, and that can create some false expectations – reflected in the odds – for their upcoming season.

The second important thing to keep an eye on with the draft is that it gives you some insight into where teams think they are weak. Watching how teams choose their players gives an indication of where they feel they are vulnerable on their roster. And that is useful information when it comes to handicapping teams in the fall.

That said, the best general managers draft to their strengths and take the best players available. The overwhelming majority of general managers draft to fill “needs”. I’ve always felt this was a little ridiculous. After all, let’s say you desperately need a cornerback. That’s a problem. So you draft a cornerback. Well, you didn’t really solve your problem so much as you changed your problem. Now instead of not having a cornerback, you have a rookie cornerback that’s likely going to get abused in the short term. You didn’t make your team better this year.

NFL draft grades are tricky because you can never really tell how a class is going to shake out until four or five years down the road. But I am grading teams based on how they did with the information they had in the here and now. So, with that in mind, here are my 2023 NFL Draft grades:

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AFC EAST

BUFFALO BILLS (C-) – I like that the Bills invested in getting Josh Allen some help. However, I have to question the concept of trading up to get a tight end. The Bills would’ve had one of the worst weekends of any team had O’Cyrus Torrence, a massive guy that also fits a giant need for the Bills, not fallen into their laps in Round 2. I would’ve rather seen the Bills trade one of those two picks (and whatever else they needed to) and go all-in on DeAndre Hopkins.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (C+) – They only had four picks, so there isn’t much to say. Devon Achane was one of my favorite players in the draft. He gives me Darren Sproles vibes and could be a steal in Round 3. The Fins must get dinged for losing their first round draft pick because of tampering.

NEW YORK JETS (D+) – The Jets crushed the draft in 2022, so it makes sense that they would throw up on themselves this time around. This team can’t have nice things. Will McDonald was a reach. Joe Tippmann fell into their laps and was the best part of their weekend. But you can only get so excited when the best thing to come out of your draft weekend was a backup center.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (D+) – The Patriots made 12 picks in this draft. I won’t be surprised if seven of the guys that they selected aren’t on an NFL roster in three years. They reached for a kicker – a kicker! – and drafted two more receivers that Bill Belichick won’t be able to develop. The only thing keeping this ranking from an outright F is that I actually liked their first two selections, Christian Gonzalez and Keion White, although neither of them is a can’t miss guy either.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (A+) – Everyone and their sister has been heaping praise on Steelers general manager Omar Khan. And for good reason. The Steelers absolutely had to upgrade the offensive line, and they did that with Broderick Jones falling to them. Joey Porter Jr. was an absolute steal in Round 2, and Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig and Darnell Washington are all beasts.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (C+) – I didn’t love the Zay Flowers selection and the pick felt like “I’m sorry” flowers for Lamar Jackson, whom the Ravens finally signed just prior to the draft. The rest of Baltimore’s weekend was spent on just grabbing bodies. I do think that seventh-rounder Andrew Vorhees could end up being a great value pick.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (B+) – The Browns were able to keep up with everyone else in a loaded division by having a productive weekend. And I am giving Cleveland’s effort even more credit because they did it without a first- or second-round pick. Getting Cedric Tillman in the third round was outstanding. And Cleveland also got outstanding value on two Ohio State offensive linemen, Dawand Jones and Luke Wypler.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (B+) – My only complaint about Cincinnati’s draft class is the dearth of offensive and defensive linemen. Myles Murphy and D.J. Turner should both have an impact sooner rather than later. But where’s the beef with this group?

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (B+) – It all depends on Anthony Richardson. I don’t love the pick. I think that Richardson is a massive project and he may never develop into an NFL-caliber quarterback. The Colts were certainly strident about selecting him but I’m not buying it. Indianapolis drafted 12 guys! So yeah, they made some good picks, some bad picks, and some meh picks. Again: none of it matters if they got it right with Richardson.

TENNESSEE TITANS (B+) – Maybe Will Levis will turn into a starting quarterback. Maybe not. But you must credit the team for grabbing him in Round 2 while also scoring one of the best offensive line talents in the draft. The Titans needed offense. The Titans drafted offense. They got some guys like Peter Skoronski and Josh Whyle that may contribute right away while others take some time to develop.

HOUSTON TEXANS (D+) – I think it has been a very good offseason for the Texans. I don’t think it was smart to give up three picks – this year’s No. 1, next year’s No. 1 and the No. 33 overall pick – to get Will Anderson. There’s always another Will Anderson to draft. They could’ve taken Lukas Van Ness and Derrick Hall instead of getting Anderson – and still have their No. 1 pick next year. Instead, they were impulsive and gave up more than they should’ve just because they couldn’t decide between Stroud and Anderson and decided they wanted both. That’s the type of move that bad organizations make.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (B) – When in doubt, grab the biggest offensive or defensive lineman available. That’s what the Jaguars did in Round 1. I thought the Brenton Strange pick was a bit odd. However, I think Antonio Johnson in Round 5 could be a steal and I like some of the other athletes that the Jaguars added.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (B+) – I think the Raiders deserve a lot of credit for not taking Jalen Carter. That would’ve been an absolute debacle. Instead, they nabbed Tyree Wilson, a guy that doesn’t have to step into the starting lineup and dominate and who will be able to learn. Getting Michael Mayer after trading Darren Waller was a major coup for Las Vegas, and their third pick (Byron Young) was also solid. Things fell off in a big way after that, though, and that’s the only thing holding this draft back from getting an A.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (B-) – Sometimes having a good draft is just about doing the simple things. The Chargers needed receiving help and needed to add some hitters in their front seven. They did all of that with their top four picks. The problem is that the Chargers are going to need instant production from Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis, and rookie wide receivers are notorious for their ability to underwhelm.

DENVER BRONCOS (C+) – Denver really only had three picks in rounds 2 and 3 to work with. They didn’t do anything great. They didn’t do anything stupid. We will see if Marvin Mims turns into something.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (B+) – The Chiefs went with physical tools and upside over college production. It is hard to argue with this team’s draft strategy when it has been so fantastically successful for them over the last few years.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS (B+) – The Giants didn’t try to overthink things. They had some specific needs, and they addressed them, grabbing a corner, a center and wideout Jalin Hyatt (who could end up being a steal) with their first three picks. It was a simple, effective draft weekend for an improving team.

DALLAS COWBOYS (C+) – The Cowboys had the capital to make some moves. Instead they stood pat, watched the Bills steal the player they really wanted in Round 1, reached for a few guys, and just didn’t come away from this draft with a lot of projected future starters. Not only was the Deuce Vaughn pick a nice moment, but I think Vaughn has a chance to be a real contributor.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (A+) – This is obviously the best situation that Jalen Carter could’ve ended up in. He is surrounded by guys he knows and played with in college, he is in a veteran locker room, and he has excellent support staff and structure around him. Carter had major bust potential if he had gone somewhere like Seattle and Detroit. That’s ultimately why both teams passed on him. The Eagles stole the talented defensive star and used the rest of their picks to load up on other former Georgia Bulldog studs (Nolan Smith, Kelee Ringo) while also pilfering D’Andre Swift from the Lions. Howie Roseman just knows what’s up.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (D+) – At the end of the weekend, it felt like Washington had fallen even further away from the rest of a loaded NFC East. They needed some juice. Rather, they got two small corners and a bunch of projects. Washington needed to leave with players that could contribute immediately. I don’t think they got any. (Although Chris Rodriguez could be a decent value pick late.)

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO BEARS (A) – Look, the Bears were winners at the draft before a single pick was made. They turned the No. 1 overall pick into two No. 1’s, two No. 2’s and a No. 4 spread out over the 2023 and 2024 drafts. For a young, building team, that is gold. Chicago needed to address weaknesses along the offensive line and defensive front seven and they did that, while also grabbing a corner, running back and wideout to add depth. It may not have been a flashy weekend, but the Bears continue to build a fantastic foundation.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (F) – You can’t take two tight ends with your top two picks. You just can’t. Not when you have the needs that Green Bay does. The Packers also wasted picks on a kicker and quarterback Sean Clifford. Having Lukas Van Ness fall to them was nice. But they could’ve had their pick of the litter at receiver and then grabbed Brian Branch and O’Cyrus Torrence in Round 2. Now THAT would’ve been a great draft. This franchise is seemingly getting worse by the day.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (C) – I’m OK with taking Jordan Addison to compliment Justin Jefferson. The problem I have is that they just didn’t really do anything after that. This draft is the definition of “meh”.

DETROIT LIONS (B) – I just don’t know, man. Detroit had a ton of draft capital. They have a good young team that is poised to battle with Chicago for the next four years. The Lions draft reeked of cockiness, though. I don’t hate the players they got. But I don’t like the value of where they selected them. And I think that they could’ve come away from this weekend with more talent. Let’s put it this way: I think they still could have ended up with Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch and Hendon Hooker, but had Tyree Wilson and a stud defensive lineman rather than Jack Campbell and Sam LaPorta. This draft is going to be a big subplot in the next decade of Detroit football, for good or ill.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA FALCONS (B) – The Bijan Robinson selection is a boom-or-bust move for Atlanta. They backed it up with two solid picks at tackle (Matt Bergeron) and defensive end (Zach Harrison). But this draft will be defined by how Robinson performs. The Falcons have a history of taking the wrong guy in Round 1 (Pitts over Fields, McKinley over Watt, Beasley over Gurley). They will have to hope this isn’t another infamous first round fail.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (B+) – I think the Saints have very quietly had a solid offseason, and the draft was no exception. Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey could step in and provide instant production on the defensive line. Jake Haener is a nice QB prospect to develop behind Derek Carr.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (B) – Tampa Bay’s first two picks, Cal Kancey and Cody Mauch, give them two potential starters for this year. They also added depth pieces at positions of need. I also give Tampa credit for not reaching for a quarterback.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (D+) – Not only did Carolina have to give up a king’s ransom to get the No. 1 overall pick, but you could also make the argument that they blew it and took the wrong quarterback. Time will tell. I liked C.J. Stroud more than Bryce Young. Either way, Alabama and Ohio State quarterbacks have been absolute duds in the NFL, so the Panthers probably shouldn’t have traded up for either of them. Carolina has a lot of needs. They would’ve been better off staying where they were and maybe having one of the top quarterbacks falling to them anyway.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (A-) – Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njiba and Derrick Hall give them as good of a 1-2-3 as anyone managed this weekend. Then after that, they nabbed a pair of talented running backs and four big bodies along the lines. If you have two No. 1’s and two No. 2’s, you should have a good draft. Seattle did. And had they waited on a running back and used their second second-round pick on someone else along one of the lines, they would’ve earned an A+.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (B+) – I love the fact that Arizona was able to trade down and then move back to grab a potential cornerstone player at a premium position (Paris Johnson). Their top three picks were very strong, and those are the most important picks that any team can make.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (D) – San Francisco didn’t have a pick until Round 3, so they missed out on adding any impact players. That has to be disappointing. But, then again, this roster doesn’t have a lot of holes. Using their second third-round pick on a kicker instead of someone like Kelee Ringo or Dawand Jones was a mistake.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (C+) – It is kind of hilarious that the Rams went from, “F*#% them picks” to drafting the most players in the NFL over the weekend. Los Angeles brought home 14 guys. The question, though, is how many of them will stick? Ten of the 14 picks came in Round 5 or later, and one of the early round picks was Stetson Bennett. It’s not like the Rams were able to restock their depleted roster over the weekend.

Robert Ferringo has been one of the most profitable football handicappers in the country over the past 15 years and is a member of the Football Writers Association of America. Check out his Insider’s Page for more!

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NFL Draft Grades 2023

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