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2023-24 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award Odds and Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 8/17/2023

Defensive Rookie of the Year Award odds and predictions Jalen Carter New York Jets

The Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson was the leading candidate for the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, and had a solid season, finishing with 9.5 sacks and three interceptions. In most years, that would be good enough to seal the deal for DROY. However, Sauce Gardner was too strong. Gardner brought swagger to the Jets’ defense and earned first-team All-Pro honors. An edge defender is once again the favorite in this category for 2023-24, but multiple Lions, another talented Eagle, and a ballhawking Seahawk are all in the mix. We will break down the top players below who could go home with the hardware.

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Will Anderson Jr. (+400)

The No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft might be the most polished pass-rush prospect out of the whole bunch. He is a three-down defender that excels against the run and the pass, which was evident in Alabama. As an immediate starter on a poor Houston Texans squad, I expect him to consistently attack the quarterback. He will establish himself as the front-runner for this award in Week 1.

Jalen Carter (+700)

Carter, on paper, is the most talented defensive player from this draft class. He dropped to ninth overall in the draft due to his off the field issues, and that can always hinder voters if they continue. However, if Carter remains quiet off the field, he will be a strong contender for this award. He is very sound versus the run and can beat guards one-on-one as a pass rusher. No defensive tackle has won DROY since 2014, but Carter has the talent to be in the conversation.

Devon Witherspoon (+1000)

New York Jets’ Sauce Gardner was the talk of the NFL last year with his smothering man coverage. Offenses figured out fast that throwing his way was a low percentage play. Witherspoon will garner the same attention in 2023. The new Seahawk lacks Sauce’s size, but his instincts and ballhawking talent are just as good as last year's DROY Award winner. Witherspoon’s on-ball production should make the No. 5 overall pick a favorite to take home the coveted hardware.

Jack Campbell (+1400)

The Lions have high hopes for Campbell after they selected him 18th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Many analysts had him going very late in the first round to a second-round selection. He has average sideline-to-sideline speed but has a great feel for play development and is always around the football. Inside linebackers who rack up tackles on above average football teams have a track record for winning DROY.

Emmanuel Forbes (+2000)

This is my favorite value pick if everything goes “according to plan.” I love his chances for this award due to his traits and team scheme. His only blemish could be his size when it comes to stopping the run, but everything else should overshadow that. He boasts a rare blend of top-end speed, ball skills, and instincts that will make him a contender after Week 1. He finished his college career with 14 interceptions, including an FBS-record six returned for touchdowns. When the Commanders front seven is healthy, they can be menacing to opposing quarterbacks, forcing bad throws. Forbes should have many chances to make splash plays and win this award.

Brian Branch (+3500)

Another rookie defender that Dan Campbell will utilize right out of the gate, Branch will have many opportunities to make a name for himself throughout the league. It does not take too much tape study to see that Branch is a pro-ready talent that can be plugged in immediately. He tackles consistently in the secondary and comes up to stuff the run. He also boasts a strong coverage technique against receivers. Branch can play both safety spots or the nickel, so he could position himself to play more snaps and make more plays than your average defensive back as a rookie. 

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