NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 9

by Joey House - 10/30/2024

After starting Thursday with a loss and watching Baltimore forget how to play football, I thought it would be a rough week in our confidence pool. However, those were our only losses; we went 14-2 and 113 points out of 136 total. Over the past three weeks, we have gone 37-7 with an 84% winning percentage. We have earned 304 points out of a possible 346, a grade of 87.8%. We plan on another big week for NFL confidence pool picks, so here is what we like for Week 9:

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15 points— Philadelphia over Jacksonville: Maybe the Eagles' problems were all injury-related. Regardless, the Jaguars are bad, with an 0-7 SU record in their last seven games on the road. Philly is 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with Jacksonville.

14 points— Cincinnati over Las Vegas: The Bengals look like they're turning things around, winning three out of their last five games and taking Baltimore to overtime before losing by a field goal. Las Vegas has played tough but is in a tough spot here. The Bengals are 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS in their last six matchups against the Raiders.

13 points— Buffalo over Miami: Miami gratefully welcomed back QB Tua Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins still fell to Arizona 28-27 last week. While Buffalo is prone to bizarre hiccups, they take care of business in the division. as they are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games against Miami and a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Bills hosted their AFC East division rivals.

12 points— Washington over NY Giants: Commanders' QB Jayden Daniels continues to compile a rookie season that dreams are made of. His 61-yard "Hail Mary" is just another in a list of incredible plays that are hard to believe unless you see them. The Giants have the second-worst scoring defense at 14.6 ppg and will have a tough time stopping Washington's offense, which has been putting up 29.5 ppg.

11 points— Baltimore over Denver: This matchup features the Ravens with the league's best offense, churning out 452.1 yards and 30.3 points per game against the Broncos Top 5 defense, surrendering 282.6 yards and 15.0 points per game. Denver hasn't faired well in trips to Baltimore, going 1-7 SU in their last eight visits to the home of Edgar Allen Poe.

10 points— Minnesota over Indianapolis: Colts QB Anthony Richardson may have given his team the best gift possible by asking to be subbed out at the end of the Texans game. Indy head coach Shane Steichen announced QB Joe Flacco will start Sunday night. The Vikings are 6-2 SU in the last eight home games versus the Colts.

9 points— Kansas City over Tampa Bay (MNF): Injuries are derailing a promising season down in Tampa Bay. They are without their top wide receivers, limiting QB Baker Mayfield's options. While Mayfield has thrown for 1,205 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last four games, he's also tossed seven interceptions, and the Bucs are just 1-3 SU.

8 points— LA Chargers over Cleveland: "Famous Jameis" Winston led the Browns to a colossal underdog win against Baltimore last weekend. He has four touchdowns to zero interceptions in 53 attempts, but with a 3.4 INT %, the picks are waiting to happen. The Chargers have the top-rated scoring defense at 13.0 ppg and 12th in the league in interceptions, with six. The Browns are 1-5 in their last six games against Los Angeles.

7 points— LA Rams over Seattle: A finally healthy Los Angeles team reminded the NFL how dangerous they are last Thursday, handing Minnesota its second loss of the season. The Rams are 10-4 SU in the last 14 games against the Seahawks. Seattle's quarterback, Geno Smith, is having a career year and is the NFL leader in completions, attempts, and yards. However, in his career against the Rams, Smith is 2-4 SU, averaging 176 yards per game with a 63.8% completion percentage, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions while being sacked 11 times.

6 points— Arizona over Chicago: Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams has been impressive for Chicago this season. That impressiveness, however, hasn't been shown on the road, where he's winless at 0-3 for the season, 58.4% completion percentage, two touchdowns, and four interceptions, with 13 sacks. The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Cardinals. Arizona has been money lately, going 7-3 ATS over their last ten contests.

5 points— Dallas over Atlanta: Dallas showed some spirit coming out of the bye-week, losing 30-24 at San Francisco. For whatever reason, the Cowboys play better on the road. Dallas QB Dak Prescott has done well against the Falcons in his career, with a 3-1 record and an average of 282.5 yards per game, and has never thrown an interception to the Falcons. Prescott has a 76-45 record in his career in games where he didn't throw an interception.

4 points— Houston over NY Jets (TNF): The Texans are 4-1 SU in their last five games and 5-0 SU in the last five against AFC opponents. The Jets are trending in the other direction on a five-game SU/ATS skid. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. Houston has the 3rd-best defense against the pass and pass rush with 27 sacks.

3 points— Carolina over New Orleans: We won last week with our screwball pick of New England over the NY Jets. This week, we're taking a desperate Panthers squad over an equally desperate Saints side. Both starting QBs are listed as questionable, but it seems Carolina's Andy Dalton might be in slightly better condition. Believe it or not, I have more faith in backup Bryce Young than in either of the Saints' backup QBs.

2 points— Tennessee over New England: Another dreadful game to watch. This game features the worst passing attack of New England (149 ypg) versus the second-worst passing attack of Tennessee (161 ypg). Early reports have Patriots quarterback Drake Maye as a limited participant in practice, meaning he could see playing time on Sunday. The Titans hope their injured QB, Will Levis, can also go. You wouldn't think a 2-6 team would have the best-passing defense in the league, but that's exactly what the Titans are, allowing just 151 yards a game through the air.

1 point— Green Bay over Detroit: We follow arguably the worst game of the week with probably the best. Detroit has a half-game lead on Green Bay, as the Lions are 6-1 and the Packers 6-2. While Detroit defeated Tennessee last week 52-14, they did allow 416 total yards of offense and are ranked 20th in the NFL. The Packers own the Lions in Lambeau, with a 25-5 record over the past 30 seasons, including a stretch from 1994 to 2014 where the Lions did not win a game in Lambeau.

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 12:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 9

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