NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8

by Joey House - 10/23/2024

As the NFL season nears the halfway point for most teams, Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool picks are rounding into form. We had a banner Week 7, going 12-3 and amassing 92 points.

After a few mind-boggling weeks, favorites have started to win the majority of games again. They are now 72-35 SU for a .673 winning percentage. This is just a few points below last year's percentage of .685 and above the 22-23 season of .659. One situation, however, continues to remain higher than expected for the underdogs. In non-divisional road games, the dog is 21-34, a .382 percentage, significantly higher than the .320 winning percentage from 2002 until now. This is something to be aware of for future games.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points— Baltimore over Cleveland: Even though the Browns lost starting QB Deshaun Watson, that may not be all bad, as Jameis Winston is expected to get the start Sunday. Playing the best team in the NFL, however, is terrible for the Brownies.

15 points— Detroit over Tennessee: Ditto for Tennessee, as replacing QB Will Levis with Mason Rudolph will ultimately be a good move. Getting his second start of the season against another team vying for the top spot in the NFL without star WR Deandre Hopkins cannot make Rudolph happy.

14 points— Kansas City over Las Vegas: The rich get richer, as the Chiefs made a trade with Tennessee to bring in WR Deandre Hopkins. Even if he doesn't make a dramatic impact, he should open space for Taylor's man, TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs love Sin City, going undefeated in their last six visits to Las Vegas.

13 points— Green Bay over Jacksonville: Here are the Jags stats: 20.7 ppg (21st of 32) scoring offense, 27.7 ppg (30th) scoring defense, and 273 ypg passing defense (31st). Green Bay's scoring offense is 26.6 (7th), 20.4 scoring defense (10th), and 228 ypg passing offense.

12 points— Denver over Carolina: Denver's struggle to score points (20.7 ppg-21st in the league) should be eased a bit by facing the worst scoring defense in the league, 34.7 ppg. Carolina is 1-12 SU in their last 13 road games, while Denver is 4-1 in its last five meetings with the Panthers. Injury update: Panthers QB Andy Dalton was in a car accident and is expected to miss this start with an injured thumb. QB Bryce Young will start.

11 points- Buffalo over Seattle: While Seattle does surprisingly have the league's best passing attack (270 ypg), the Bills' ground game (116 ypg) should have a field day against the Seahawk's 5th-worst rush defense (146 ypg). Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games against Seattle.

10 points— Pittsburgh over NY Giants (MNF): The NY Giants bring the 3rd-worst scoring offense, 14.1 ppg, into prime time against the Steelers' 2nd-best scoring defense, 14.4 ppg. That lack of scoring is a significant factor in the Giants going 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.

9 points— Washington over Chicago: While there is some concern over the injury to Washington's rookie sensation, QB Jayden Daniels, backup QB Marcus Mariota is experienced and solid enough to guide the team for a few games if need be. Chicago is 24th in offensive yards per game, with 301.5 ypg.

8 points— Philadelphia over Cincinnati: Now that the Eagles are getting healthier, they're becoming the dangerous squad everyone expected in the preseason. RB Saquon Barkley is 3rd in the league in rushing with 658 yards and in yards per carry at 6.1. Cincinnati is giving up 136 ypg on the ground.

7 points— Minnesota over LA Rams (TNF): It seems the LA Rams have already conceded this season, as they are shopping around star WR Cooper Kupp to unload salary. Minnesota rebounds from its first loss of the season.

6 points— Houston over Indianapolis: Colts QB Anthony Richardson started last week and went 10-24 (41.7%) for 129 yards with no TDs or INTs. That was enough to beat a toothless Miami squad, but it won't be good enough against more powerful teams.

5 points— Arizona over Miami: Miami has the most inept offense in the NFL, scoring just 11.7 ppg. Even though QB Tua Tagovailoa is probable this week, we'll wait for a game or two before we start backing him. Arizona has the 6th-best rushing attack at 150 ypg and should eat yards at a prodigious clip against Miami's rush defense, allowing 4.6 ypc.

4 points— LA Chargers over New Orleans: After starting the year 2-0 and looking like the most explosive offense ever, the Saints have quickly fallen to Earth, losing five straight. With QB Derek Carr and Taysom Hill doubtful and WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out, poor backup rookie QB Spencer Rattler doesn't have many targets to use.

3 points— San Francisco over Dallas (SNF): In 1994, my ship in the Navy pulled into San Francisco for my first liberty call. However, that wasn't my only first-time experience, as I saw the 49ers host the Cowboys in what was to be a preview of the NFC Championship game that season on the Niner's road to their 5th Super Bowl. These two squads will be lucky to make the playoffs, let alone play in the championship game. The Niners won that game against the Cowboys 21-14, and I could absolutely see that same score occurring.

2 points—Atlanta over Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay's passing attack, which is currently tied for 6th in the league with Atlanta at 248 ypg, will be without its two top receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs, however, have the fourth-worst pass defense, giving up 254 ypg. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with its NFC South rivals.

1 point— New England over NY Jets: My one obligatory screwball pick. The Pats are 15-2 SU in their last 17 meetings with the Jets. Remember that the legendary QB Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, so eight of those 17 games were without the GOAT. The Jets might become a potent offense after newly acquired WR Davante Adams gets more comfortable with New York's playbook. Until then, I'll take the home divisional dog.

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 4:05 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8

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